Phillies' bullpen believes it's turned corner

August 26th, 2020

is fired up. He knows what everybody is saying about the Phillies’ bullpen.

“Hell yeah, it pisses you off,” Hunter said following Tuesday’s 8-3 victory over the Nationals at Nationals Park. “That’s the thing, man. We want to win the baseball game. We are giving everything we have. Sorry it wasn’t good enough. But it’s not like we’re giving more now because we’ve been getting a little bit of heat. We’re the same guys that are showing up the same days and the same mindsets and the results are just working for us right now.”

, Hunter, , and combined to allow one earned run in four innings in the series opener. The bullpen has allowed two earned runs in 7 2/3 innings over the last two games.

Two games do not erase a season’s worth of struggles, but every turnaround starts somewhere.

“There’s not a single person in this clubhouse that does not want to win a World Series,” Hunter said. “And that’s our goal. That’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to try to do that until somebody tells us that we can’t. I mean, that’s it. We want to win. That’s what our fanbase needs to know. This team wants to win really bad.”

The bullpen’s historically abysmal start put the team on course to miss the 16-team postseason, despite one of the highest payrolls in baseball. It is why the front office on Friday traded right-handers Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold to the Red Sox and right-hander Addison Russ to the Yankees for veteran righties , Hembree and .

The trio should help, but history suggests the bullpen cannot help but improve in the season’s final 35 games. It is not a ringing endorsement, but it is something. The 1930 Phillies bullpen had an 8.15 ERA, according to Statspass, which remains the highest mark in the Majors over the past 90 years. The 2020 Phillies bullpen is second with a 7.37 ERA.

Only 11 bullpens in the past 90 years finished with a 6.00 ERA or higher. So there is that.

The Phillies’ bullpen has been unlucky, if you consider some of the game’s predictive stats. Entering Tuesday, their batting average allowed (.350) is 45 points higher than their expected batting average (.305), which is the largest gap of any bullpen. Their slugging percentage allowed (.586) is 67 points higher than their expected slugging percentage (.519), which is the largest gap of any bullpen. Their wOBA (.412) is 35 points higher than their xwOBA (.377), which is the largest gap of any bullpen.

The fine print here is that the bullpen’s actual and expected stats each rank as the highest in the Majors.

Workman, Hembree and Hale should drive down the actual and predictive stats. They have better track records and their arrivals mean less qualified or less experienced pitchers will not be on the mound: (8.59 ERA, 7.91 FIP), (7.94 ERA, 5.96 FIP), Pivetta (15.88 ERA, 9.67 FIP), (17.18 ERA, 5.32 FIP), Trevor Kelley (10.80 ERA, 8.84 FIP), (21.00 ERA, 7.14 FIP) and (16.88 ERA, 18.89 FIP).

But the Phillies still need others to step up, too. Girardi revealed Tuesday that they will miss left-hander for at least a few weeks, which is a blow because he had been their best reliever. Álvarez sustained a testicular contusion on Thursday, and he will not throw for two weeks, carrying him to Sept. 4. He then needs a week or two to rebuild his arm strength.

Neris’ 9.95 ERA through nine appearances is a major concern. His velocity is down and he is not getting as many swings and misses. The Phillies need to get him right. Ideally, both Workman and Neris get going and Girardi has two legitimate options for the ninth inning.

Four out of Hunter’s past five appearances are scoreless, which is encouraging. His fastball velocity seems to be creeping up. Parker has thrown 6 1/3 scoreless innings since he joined the team. Morgan has a 3.86 ERA in nine appearances. dazzled in his big league debut last Friday. If he can command the ball consistently, he could help. joined the bullpen, although he will remain stretched out with four doubleheaders next month. The Phillies also hope that left-hander joins the bullpen at some point. He is recovering from COVID-19.

Does any of this suggest the Phillies’ seventh, eighth and ninth innings will look like Romero-to-Madson-to-Lidge anytime soon? No. But it does mean that based on the numbers, they probably have seen the worst.

“I feel like our bullpen has gotten a lot deeper in the last few days,” said. “With the moves that we’ve made, we’re all looking forward to getting better in the back end and being able to win games late.”