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How much can a lineup truly impact a team’s offense?

The question has been on our minds since last week, when everybody (some more than others) seemed to be obsessed with the Phillies’ lineup, and the belief that a simple change at the top would transform them into the 1927 Yankees.

Lineup construction is important, but how important?

Former Phillies manager Joe Girardi once said that the Phillies ran countless simulations on countless lineups, and the difference between one lineup to the next is only a few runs over the course of a 162-game season. Other people in the organization have said the same, and there have been countless studies that echo those findings.

Tom Tango once wrote, “The difference between the absolute best lineup and anything better than a random lineup is going to be about seven-eight runs or so.

“If you remember … swapping players between lineup slots gives you a two- or three-run gain. So, that's pretty much where we are, you might need to swap two or three pairs of players, and that'll give you something like a seven- or eight-run gain. Over 162 games. That's 0.05 runs per game. That's what the thousands of words we've spent on optimization is giving us, about 0.05 runs per game.”

Essentially, as long as a manager doesn’t put his best three hitters in the bottom three spots of the lineup, he has done 90 percent of what he needs to do. The rest is considering the opposing pitching, balance, etc.

One legitimately important consideration, especially on a veteran team like the Phillies, is that players smell panic when a manager shuffles his lineup as soon as a player slumps. That’s a big reason Phillies manager Rob Thomson stuck to his lineup early in the 2022 postseason, when Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins started slowly.

Schwarber and Hoskins, ultimately, rewarded Thomson’s patience with huge showings on the Phillies’ way to the World Series.

It’s also why Thomson gave Schwarber a few days in the top spot last week before dropping him to fifth on Sunday. Schwarber went 0-for-19 with seven strikeouts in four games as the leadoff hitter. The Phillies lost each of those games.

They also allowed 35 runs.

No lineup could overcome that.