SARASOTA, Fla. -- Gabe Kapler has asked everybody in the Phillies organization to think boldly and behave boldly.The Phillies made a remarkably bold move on Monday, when they officially announced the signing of former National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob Arrieta. MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi reports it's a three-year
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Gabe Kapler has asked everybody in the Phillies organization to think boldly and behave boldly.
The Phillies made a remarkably bold move on Monday, when they officially announced the signing of former National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob Arrieta. MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi reports it's a three-year contract worth $75 million -- Arrieta will make $30 million in the first year, $25 million in the second and $20 million in the third -- and that Arrieta can opt out of the contract after 2019.
• 10 things to know about Arrieta
Philadelphia can void that opt out, though, if the club exercises a two-year extension that starts at $20 million per season, according to Morosi, but it can reach as much as $30 million per season based on games started and NL Cy Young Award finishes.
In that case, the contract would be worth as much as $135 million over five seasons.
Arrieta's arrival changes things for the Phillies. Kapler said at the beginning of Spring Training that he thought the Phils had the opportunity to "shock people." They might not shock anybody anymore.
• Arrieta has dominated at Citizens Bank Park
Arrieta, 32, won the NL Cy Young Award with the Cubs in 2015, going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. He has since remained one of the best starters in baseball over the past two seasons, going 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA in '16 and 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA in '17. Arrieta has made at least 30 starts in each of the past three seasons. If he maintains that level of production, he could put Philadelphia in the thick of postseason contention for the first time since 2011, a season earlier than the organization anticipated.
Sources indicated for weeks that the Phillies were unwilling to guarantee anything more than three seasons because analytics about Arrieta's 2017 season raised concerns about a long-term contract.
So the Phils exercised patience as the calendar moved closer and closer to Opening Day and got pretty much what they wanted.
• Hot Stove Tracker
"We're always trying to improve the team, but we've got to do it a way that makes sense now and next year," Phillies owner John Middleton told MLB.com in late February. "We don't want to sacrifice something significant in the future by making a short-term move. Whether it's a trade or a signing, if we get the deal we think is right, we'll do it. We'll pull the trigger. Money is zero object. No object whatsoever."
In other words, the Phils were fine paying major money for a player, if the years made sense.
The salary in each year of the two-year extension will be increased from $20 million if Arrieta reaches a certain number of starts in each of the first two seasons. According to Morosi, if he starts 25 games, he'll get $1 million toward his salary in both 2021 and '22. If Arrieta starts 27, he'll get $1.5 million toward each year's salary, 29 starts will get him $2 million and 31 starts will get him $2.5 million.
If Arrieta finishes in the top 5 of the NL Cy Young Award voting in each of the first two seasons, the salaries of the two-year extension can increase to $30 million, per Morosi.
The average annual value of Arrieta's deal ($25 million) was the highest signed by any player since the end of last season. Carlos Santana's average annual value ($20 million) is the fifth highest.
Because Arrieta rejected the Cubs' qualifying offer last year, the Phillies will forfeit their third-highest Draft pick, plus $500,000 in international signing bonus money. They already surrendered their second-highest pick, plus $500,000 in international signing bonus money, when they signed Santana.
If Arrieta maintains his recent level of performance for the next two or three seasons and helps the Phillies return to the postseason, it will be a small price to pay. He immediately gives the Phils a solid 1-2 punch atop the rotation with Aaron Nola. The rest of the five-man rotation figures to be filled out with Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Jerad Eickhoff. Zach Eflin, Mark Leiter, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson and non-roster invitee Andrew Hutchison had been competing for the team's No. 5 job before the agreement with Arrieta.
It is unclear if Arrieta will be ready to pitch the first week of the regular season. It is unclear how much the veteran right-hander has been throwing before agreeing to the deal.
But even if Arrieta's debut is delayed a week or two, the Phils made themselves much more formidable in the NL East.
Fantasy spin | Fred Zinkie (@FredZinkieMLB)
Although his final numbers (3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) were boosted by a strong finish, Arrieta showed signs of decline while working with diminished velocity in 2017. Recording an elevated 29.4 percent hard-hit rate (23.8 percent from '14-16), the right-hander saw his H/9 (8.0) and HR/9 (1.2) rates jump significantly (6.2 H/9, 0.5 HR/9 from '14-16). Still, Arrieta posted a stellar 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP across four-plus seasons with the Cubs and should be a solid No. 3 mixed-league starter while working in front of an improving lineup and a solid back-end bullpen trio of Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Hector Neris.
Todd Zolecki has covered the Phillies since 2003, and for MLB.com since 2009. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook and listen to his podcast.