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Which version of newcomer Nestor Cortes will the Brewers get in 2025?
There’s “Nasty Nestor,” who went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 28 starts during a 2022 All-Star campaign that resulted in a share of down-ballot American League Cy Young Award votes. But then, there’s the Cortes who went 14-12 with a 4.09 ERA in 43 outings (42 starts) in the two years since. He missed nearly four months in 2023 with left rotator cuff issues and the majority of last postseason with a left elbow flexor strain.
So it’s fair to wonder how Cortes -- acquired from the Yankees along with prospect Caleb Durbin in the Devin Williams trade in December -- will look in 2025.
Let’s take a look at the three keys to Milwaukee getting “Nasty Nestor”:
Stay healthy
This one is obvious. Cortes made a career-high 30 starts last season for the Yankees, but he was sidelined from mid-September until the World Series, when he returned to make a pair of relief appearances. Though Cortes had an inconsistent 2024, he was locked in before the injury derailed his season, going 4-0 with a 1.58 ERA over his final seven regular-season outings.
Cortes, who did not require surgery and was able to begin his usual offseason throwing program on schedule, will be looking to pick up where he left off.
Get hitters off his four-seamer
Put simply, Cortes had one of, if not the best four-seam fastball in the Majors in 2022.
Opponents hit just .157 with a .240 slugging percentage against Cortes’ four-seamer, while the .206 opponents’ wOBA was the best among qualified pitchers. The four-seamer also accounted for a run value of 22, per Baseball Savant, which trailed only Justin Verlander (24) across the Majors.
Cortes’ four-seam fastball certainly wasn't overpowering -- the pitch averaged just 91.8 mph -- but it was incredibly deceptive.
There were a few reasons hitters had such a tough time with his fastball.
For starters, Cortes' varying release points and inconsistent delivery kept opponents constantly guessing at what was coming.
And what his four-seamer lacked in velocity, it more than made up for in spin. It essentially had a "rising" effect that made it sneak up on hitters quicker than you'd expect from a low-90s fastball.
Put that all together and Cortes’ four-seamer was a pitch that hitters could rarely square up. Opponents had an average exit velocity of just 89.8 mph and a hard-hit rate of 42.6% against it.
But those numbers jumped to a 92.6 mph average exit velo and a 52.6% hard-hit rate in 2024. With hitters squaring up Cortes’ fastball at a higher rate, they hit .235 with a .443 slugging percentage against it -- a jump in slugging in more than 200 points.
The good news is this wasn’t due to a drop in velocity or something Cortes may not be able to get back. The bad news is there isn’t an obvious explanation. His release points, spin and movement were all very similar in 2024 to what they were in ’22, so it appears this is more a case of hitters adjusting to Cortes than Cortes doing anything differently.
Now, it’ll be up to Cortes to adjust to the adjustments.
Improved four-seamer = better complementary pitches
Without his untouchable four-seamer, it should come as no surprise that Cortes’ other pitches also became less effective.
Though his 2022 success was largely due to his incredible fastball-cutter combo, Cortes’ sweeper was another weapon to keep hitters off balance. It was a pitch he had worked hard to develop, debuting a new "sweeping" version of his slider in 2021 -- and it produced league average results in '21 and '22.
But in the two seasons since, the sweeper/slider has been less effective. His pitches classified as a sweeper or a slider accounted for a minus-8 run value from 2023-24, while his seldom-used changeup has also produced a minus-6 run value during that span despite being thrown just 7.8% of the time.
In other words, the 2022 version of Cortes had an elite four-seamer, a borderline elite cutter and an effective sweeper and changeup -- and zero below-average pitches. Last year, he had a good fastball-cutter combo but zero elite pitches -- and two below-average offerings.
If he gets the fastball back to where it needs to be, the offspeed stuff will likely go back to playing the way it should.