Will injury comebacks affect Cubs’ Trade Deadline strategy?

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CHICAGO -- Even before the injuries began to pile up on the Cubs throughout this season’s first half, it was pretty clear what the team would likely be targeting at the Trade Deadline. The roster is pretty rigid on the position-player front, so pitching was always going to be the priority.

The need for help on the mound has crystalized further over the past few months as Chicago’s pitchers have crowded the injured list. Now, with the Cubs in the thick of the National League Wild Card picture and trying to close ground on the division-leading Brewers, the next few weeks are critical for the front office’s decision-making.

“Of course, our play is going to dictate a level of aggressiveness, and needs as well,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said recently. “We’ve got [about a month] to go. It’ll be interesting to see how we play during that time. That will determine a lot of what we do before Aug. 3.”

Another factor for Chicago is if and when the sidelined pitchers will make their way back into the picture. Those respective timelines will need to be weighed against potential external additions, creating another complicating layer as Hoyer and his team study the postseason odds and moves that make sense under the circumstances.

Let’s look at where things stand on the injury front:

Rotation

The Cubs already struck early on the trade market, acquiring veteran lefty David Peterson from the Mets in exchange for Minor Leaguer Cole Mathis late last month. Yes, the move was made out of need -- Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown had just landed on the IL -- but the Cubs also viewed Peterson as a bounceback candidate.

Peterson moved right into the rotation, alongside Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Javier Assad and Matthew Boyd (recently back from the IL after left knee surgery). With any additions, or starters returning from the shelf, Assad, Rea or Peterson could be candidates to shift into relief roles.

Jameson Taillon (15-day IL, left hamstring) just worked 3 1/3 innings in a rehab start with High-A South Bend and if the big righty does not return for an abbreviated outing before the All-Star break, he should be back shortly after the intermission. From there, things get a little uncertain.

There is hope that Cabrera (15-day, left hamstring/adductor) could get on a mound before the break, but he will need to then go through the typical starter’s build. That makes an August return the likely target.

Given the time Ben Brown (15-day, stress reaction in neck) needs to heal, he seems more likely to return as a reliever later this season. To be clear, that is speculation. Lefty Justin Steele (60-day IL, left elbow) would like to return as a starter, but Hoyer said last month that the pitcher is more likely to come back as a reliever this year, if he does rejoin the Cubs.

There is also top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins, who has been on the Minor League IL since April due to a right elbow issue. Wiggins is four outings into a rehab stint, but Cubs manager Craig Counsell said recently the righty is not currently a factor in any rotation plans. That could change later this season, but Wiggins’ status should not impact any Deadline approach.

Bullpen

The Cubs should have closer Daniel Palencia (15-day IL, right flexor strain) and Phil Maton (15-day IL, right knee) back before the end of July. Ethan Roberts (15-day IL, right forearm) might be in the picture before the end of the month, but his timeline is less clear. Lefty Hoby Milner (15-day IL, appendectomy) could be back in August.

Two more sidelined pitchers with uncertain timelines are lefty Riley Martin (60-day IL, left elbow) and righty Hunter Harvey (60-day IL, stress reaction near right triceps/shoulder). Maybe they could work back into the mix later this season, but it is hard to count on that.

The Cubs’ front office has made smaller moves over the past several weeks to try to patch holes in the relief corps, and expect that to continue throughout July. That said, the Cubs’ need for pitching help might be more pronounced in the bullpen at the Deadline. An impact arm or two would go a long way in strengthening a group that has been in constant flux all year.