PEORIA, Ariz. -- Still too early to talk Opening Day starter in Mariners camp?
For manager Dan Wilson, who for the second straight year doesn’t have the most obvious choice, that’s a yes.
But for the rest of us, Spring Training has reached its dog-days stage, and the time is ripe to dissect the debate on who could -- or should -- take the mound for Seattle’s anticipated sellout on March 26 against the Guardians.
“We're still evaluating in some ways,” Wilson said before Sunday’s 6-3 Cactus League loss to the Brewers. “But I think we're always open to see what happens as we go. We still have two-plus weeks left, and so we'll just, again, assess as we go.”
With a rotation that could have the sport’s highest ceiling, there are plenty of worthy arms to choose from. But this really boils down to a two-man race -- between Logan Gilbert, the incumbent and more seasoned homegrown ace, and Bryan Woo, the rotations' lone All-Star last season who was easily the best among this group in 2025.
And it’s a more complex decision than it might seem.
The merit-based logic
This is the avenue that Wilson took last year when he tabbed Gilbert (a reigning All-Star and MLB’s leader in innings) over Luis Castillo (the staff veteran coming off a decent season but not by his most elite measures).
Gilbert seemed the obvious choice, but that assignment had meant a lot to Castillo in his three previous selections, which Wilson wanted to respect. And he did so masterfully, informing Castillo first, then including him to break the news to Gilbert -- but not until March 16.
If Wilson is operating on the same calculus, Woo would be the easy pick.
He finished fifth in the American League Cy Young Award voting last year after leading the team in innings (186 2/3) and ERA (2.94). He would’ve been their de-facto Game 1 starter in the playoffs had it not been for a pectoral strain he suffered on Sept. 19.
“Every year has a different nuance to it,” Wilson said. “And you look at all the different things, and we'll continue to do that. Sometimes it's something that you don't foresee that kind of jumps in the way.”
The long-play logic
Woo’s pectoral issue sidelined him nearly a full month, came at the season’s most consequential stage and wiped away his chances at a completely healthy season. Aside from his team-wide goals, that last part means more to him than anything, given that he’s dealt with various injuries in each of his first five pro seasons.
Setting his health up for success was also the leading factor in Woo declining Team USA’s invitation to pitch in the World Baseball Classic. There are also ways for the Mariners to mitigate his longevity, the earliest of which would be to roll him out later than Opening Day and then manipulate April’s four off-days to build in extra rest.
That’s precisely what they did last year, as Woo didn’t start on a standard four days’ rest until May 7. Woo is also two spots behind Gilbert in Seattle’s current Cactus slotting.
“Sometimes, it's how it stacks up best as you get into the season and whatnot,” Wilson said. “So there's a lot of different factors to take into consideration.”
The veteran-based logic
OK, Gilbert hasn’t exactly reached “veteran” status given that he’s only 28. But this is also his sixth season in The Show and ninth in the organization. And believe it or not, Gilbert -- who made his Mariners debut on May 13, 2021 -- is the team’s second-longest-tenured player, behind only J.P. Crawford (May 10, 2019), the lone holdover from Seattle’s rebuild.
Moreover, Gilbert has blossomed into an ambassador for the organization and leader among the rotation. He’s achieved so many life milestones, on and off the mound, while growing up right before our eyes.
And had it not been for a Grade 2 right elbow elbow flexor strain that sidelined him for seven weeks last season -- marking his first time on the injured list -- he might’ve been right next to Woo in total production.
“We consider all those things,” Wilson said, “and we'll figure out who the best candidate is.”
The announcement’s logic
The morning chats on this with Wilson have been in inch-by-inch increments for the past month, but it speaks to how he views the assignment and the respect to the players involved by keeping his cards close.
After all, it is one of the more symbolic nods for a pitcher, signaling status, trust and reputation -- inside the clubhouse and across the league.
Gilbert and Woo have each earned it, meaning whichever decision Wilson makes won’t be the wrong one.