Inbox: Is Lewis still the top AL rookie?

Beat reporter Greg Johns answers questions from fans

October 18th, 2020

As the offseason gets underway, it’s time to open the Mariners Inbox and start delving into your questions about the upcoming Hot Stove season or anything else on your mind. You can keep the questions coming by e-mailing me at [email protected] or hit me up at my Twitter account, and we'll try to get you on the next one.

With his September slump, is Kyle Lewis still a lock to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award or is that up in the air now?
-- Bobby T., Snohomish, Wash.

While the four major Baseball Writers Association of America awards -- MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year and Rookie of the Year -- won’t be announced for another month, Lewis appears the favorite to become the first Mariner to win the AL’s top rookie honor since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.

Lewis indeed struggled in September, but his marvelous six-week start to the season still left him with the best overall rookie numbers in the league, with his .262/.364/.437 slash line to pair with his 11 homers and 28 RBIs in 58 games. White Sox outfielder Luis Robert was regarded by most as Lewis’ top challenger, but he slumped even more over the final month and finished at .233/.302/.436 with 11 homers and 31 RBIs in 56 games.

What helped Lewis is that the 60-game schedule didn’t give much time for any mid-season promotions to get into the race. Angels first baseman Jared Walsh hit .293/.324/.646 with nine homers and 26 RBIs, but he played in only 32 games.

Similarly, Tampa Bay left fielder Randy Arozarena has been a postseason sensation, but he didn’t join the Rays until Aug. 30 after testing positive for COVID-19 and played just 23 regular-season games, hitting .281/.382/.641 with seven homers and 11 RBIs. If playoff performances were included, Arozarena might be the favorite, but BBWAA awards are voted on before the postseason begins.

Several rookie pitchers made strong cases, including the Astros’ Cristian Javier (5-2, 3.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and Seattle’s own Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). But again, the short season might make it difficult for pitchers who started just 10 games to garner enough support among voters.

So we’ll see. I think Lewis is the clear favorite, but Walsh might be a dark horse after his strong September finish for the Angels, and A’s catcher Sean Murphy is another who could pull some votes.

Has Kyle Seager’s resurgence put him in the picture beyond 2021?
-- Jimmy J., Charleston, Ill.

I honestly didn’t view Seager’s season as a “resurgence,” but more of a continuation of the solid production he’s provided at third base for the past 10 years, with the exception of a down season in 2018. If you look at Seager’s numbers, he’s been remarkably consistent -- and I think underrated -- for his entire career. That said, it’s hard for me to imagine Seager still with Seattle in '22. That would mean either the Mariners picking up his $15 million option at age 34 or Seager agreeing to re-sign with Seattle at that point on a lesser deal.

A lot can change by that time, and Seager has provided a needed veteran presence for the young club, but it appears the Mariners acquired their third baseman of the future in Ty France and see him more as the hot-corner option in the young nucleus down the road.

Do the Mariners sign another low-risk, high-reward starter like maybe Aaron Sanchez?
-- Anthony H., Halifax, Novia Scotia

I expect the Mariners to add a veteran free-agent starter to their mix, but if they only sign one, Sanchez probably isn’t the guy they’d target, given the uncertainty of his health. The former Blue Jay missed all of last season with shoulder problems, and shoulder injuries are tough for pitchers to come back from. However, the 28-year-old threw recently for scouts, and if he’s open to pitching out of the bullpen like Kendall Graveman, he could be an interesting flyer for Seattle.

At what point is a player no longer eligible for an organization's prospect list?
-- Zack M., Mercer Island, Wash.

MLB Pipeline uses rookie eligibility status to determine which players are prospects, which means 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 accumulated days on the active roster outside of the September callup period. Once a player reaches those totals, they “graduate” off the prospect list even if it occurs in the middle of the season, which is why Mariners like Kyle Lewis and Evan White started the year as prospects but were no longer on those lists by the end of the season.

Would you be surprised to see the Mariners go after any big-name free agents?
-- Tim F., Gig Harbor, Wash.

I would be surprised this offseason, yes. They seem more inclined to let the young core continue arriving and developing in the coming season, then see when and where it would make the best sense to go after bigger free agents who could be difference makers or finishing pieces when that group is poised to make its collective push. Frankly, most of the “big-name” free-agent pitchers available have question marks, and the position players fill spots at which the Mariners already are invested in young talent. I think they let outfielders Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Lewis develop, for instance, rather than try to throw huge money at George Springer.

The one starting pitcher everyone talks about is Trevor Bauer, and sure, he’d make sense on a longer-term deal. But they’d have to make a better case than (i.e., vastly out-bid) the Yankees and other contenders to get Bauer to even think about coming to a rebuilding team. It takes two to tango. Maybe James Paxton would be a more realistic target, but like many of the top available starters, he has health questions that make long-term deals risky.

The wild card this winter could be the financial uncertainty facing teams coming off the shortened 2020 season with no fans in the stands, with no assurance yet how things will play out in ’21 either. How much that impacts the market and whether that leads to some interesting player availabilities via trade or free agency remains to be seen.