This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. Subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ARLINGTON -- The fastball from Cubs righty Ben Brown started low and inside to Cincinnati’s Will Benson before zipping back toward the strike zone. The pitch was called a ball, but catcher Carson Kelly immediately tapped the top of his helmet and -- a few seconds later -- Brown had a crucial strikeout.
That challenge in the eighth inning on May 4 helped Brown escape a jam and put the Cubs on a path to a 5-4 win. Per Statcast, the decision by Kelly wound up being worth +0.4 challenge runs, offering a snapshot of the catcher’s early-season ability to rack up value with his keen eye and sense of timing via the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenge system.
“One thing about Carson that I’ve seen more and more,” Brown said, “is he’s so on it when it comes to how he’s controlling the zone, how he’s controlling the running game, how he’s calling pitches. Carson’s really diligent with how he prepares.”
So far, Kelly has stood out as one of baseball’s top challengers in this first season with ABS.
Entering Sunday’s game in Texas, the veteran Kelly led the Majors with an 89% success rate (17-for-19), among catchers with at least 10 challenges this season. Kelly’s decision-making had led to eight at-bats being flipped to strikeouts -- second to only Ryan Jeffers (11) of the Twins. That included two walks turning into punchouts, and three walks overall being eliminated.
Combined with catchers Miguel Amaya and Moisés Ballesteros, the Cubs were tied for third in MLB in overall success rate (70%) in challenges from their fielders (pitchers/catchers).
And while Kelly is not near the top of the list in total challenges -- Milwaukee’s William Contreras led the way with 44 -- his timing has delivered immense value. Per Statcast, Kelly had created +2.4 net runs with his challenges, leading the Majors in that category. His +11.4 net overturns vs. expected ranked fifth among MLB catchers.
“A lot of it is situation dependent,” Kelly said. “It’s knowing when to use them and how sure you are of it being a strike. … So, it’s the certainty level, trusting your eyes and just understanding the situation.”
One could argue about the level of skill involved in deciphering a strike from a ball when fractions of an inch are involved, but there is skill in knowing when to play the probability of a potential overturn.
Kelly’s 19 challenges include only three within the first five innings, compared to 16 between the sixth and eighth innings. The catcher has not yet used a challenge in the opening frame. Kelly has challenged the most in 0-0, 0-1 and 2-2 counts (four challenges apiece).
“Carson’s knowledge of the zone starts with his game planning,” said Brown, who has been the beneficiary of three overturned calls with Kelly behind the plate. “And then it goes into situations: ‘Is it worth it?’ Obviously, we’ve seen the impact of a burned challenge early in the game.”
The most obvious example of that was on April 27 in San Diego, when lefty Matthew Boyd mistakenly challenged a call in the first inning. The mental error hindered Chicago’s chances to use ABS in a key situation later in a game that the Padres won, 9-7.
One thing both Kelly and Brown noted was that ABS has shown how skilled umpires as a whole are at calling the zone.
“The umpires have been doing a great job this year,” Brown said. “I think they’re showing how good they are. Some of these are fractions of an inch. The zone is smaller than it’s ever been, more precise than it’s ever been and they’re still doing a great job.”
“Absolutely,” Kelly said. “It’s hard. We’re talking a quarter of an inch at 100 mph. They’re really good at their jobs.”