There’s simply no shortage of incredibly clutch moments in baseball postseason history, and many of them are so famous that you don’t even need to name the players involved to know what we’re referring to. Game 6, 1986? Boston fans will run speeding in the opposite direction.
Game 6, 1993? Touch em’ all, Joe. Game 5, 2024, specifically the fifth inning? Well, sorry about that, Yankee fans. It says a lot about how much history we’ve made in this sport that so many of these plays are so immediately identifiable.
But which ones are the most important? And how would you even define whether, say, Carlton Fisk’s legendary Fenway foul pole homer in 1975 meant more than Luis Gonzalez’s broken-bat blooper in 2001 or Willie Mays’s catch – literally “The Catch” – in 1954?
To the fanbases involved, the only ones that matter are the ones that sent their teams to immortality. To the rest of us, there’s always a formula. In this case, it’s Baseball-Reference’s “Championship Win Probability Added,” which takes the Win Probability Added you’re likely familiar with – taking into account the inning, score, outs, and baserunners, and seeing how likely each team is to win in that situation – and adding a multiplier based on postseason importance. Breaking a tie in the ninth inning of World Series Game 7, for example, is a lot more meaningful than doing it in the fourth inning of NLDS Game 2.
The way this works is to show the difference in cWPA before the plate appearance and after, because a single play in the right spot can make for a massive swing. Bobby Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round the World,” for example, which will rate highly on this list, earned +35.5% cWPA, which is what happens when you multiply the odds the Giants had to win the World Series if they won the game (50/50, as the victory made them National League champions) and the value he added in changing the in-game Win Probability from 29% entering his at-bat to 100% after. That’s 71% Win Probability Added in the game, times the 50/50 proposition of then winning the Series, and there’s your 36% cWPA added.
It is, we admit, mathy. But when you’re trying to separate all these all-time great moments, you kind of have to be. Here are the top 10 most important moments in baseball history.
1) +63.6% cWPA -- Hal Smith (Pirates): 1960 WS, Game 7
3-run HR down 7-6 in the 8th, 2 outs
That’s right, the Bill Mazeroski game, but not the Mazeroski homer. Maz’s dinger might be one of the most memorable plays in history, and it played a significant role in his eventual induction into the Hall of Fame, but it came in a tie game, not with a loss looming seconds away. The only reason that the Pirates even got to the ninth inning in a 9-9 tie is because of what happened an inning earlier, when the Pirates were down 7-4 with six outs to go. It was 7-6 with two on, two outs, and a 2-2 count when Smith slammed a three-run homer to give Pittsburgh a lead they’d then immediately blow, setting up Mazeroski for the homer you actually remember. It wouldn’t have happened without Smith.
2) +50.5% cWPA -- Tris Speaker (Red Sox): 1912 WS, Game 8
RBI single down 2-1 in the 10th, 1 out
That’s right, Game 8, which was necessary because Game 2 had ended in a 6-6 tie due to darkness. Speaker, then 24, was early in what would be a Hall of Fame career, and his Red Sox had allowed the go-ahead run in the top of the 10th. In the bottom of the frame, with three outs left in the season, Boston put two on with one out for Speaker – who immediately popped up the first pitch, which miraculously fell harmlessly between the catcher and first baseman. Given a second chance, Speaker singled to right, tying the game and advancing both runners. Two batters later, the Red Sox would walk it off.
3) +49.8% cWPA: Tony Womack (D-backs): 2001 WS, Game 7
RBI double down 2-1 in the 9th, 1 out
Somewhat similar to Smith and Mazeroski 41 years earlier, the most impactful play in this one was not the one that gets remembered, because the only reason it was a tie game for Gonzalez to win it was because Womack, two batters earlier, turned a 2-1 deficit into a 2-2 tie by doubling off none other than Mariano Rivera, a.k.a. “the best closer who ever lived.” One thing a metric like this doesn’t take into account is the identity and talent of the players involved, so if you want to give Womack a little extra credit because of who he had to battle against, go right ahead.
4) +46.2% cWPA -- Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 2025 WS, Game 7
Turned a double play while up 5-4, bottom 11th, 2 on, 1 out
A mere ground ball may not seem as exciting or important as homers or extra-base hits that put runs on the board, but remember the situation here. To start with, the 11th inning of Game 7 is a barely-precedented situation to begin with, because only twice before had a Series-deciding game gone that far. While the Blue Jays were losing by one, they’d also managed to put runners on the corners with one out, a situation which is generally good for 1.3 runs scored. That’s enough to avoid losing – and possibly even to win – the entire World Series. The stakes, obviously, could not have been higher for Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk. A groundball to the Dodgers' shortstop later, Los Angeles had its second ring in a row. It’s the most impactful out in baseball history.
5) +41% cWPA -- Will Smith (Dodgers): 2025 WS, Game 7
Solo HR in 4-4 tie, top 11th, none on, two outs
Right: Game 7 of the 2025 Series was so absolutely wild, so back-and-forth, so tight, that there’s a good argument it’s the wildest game in postseason history. It does, after all, have two of the top five plays here, and three of the top dozen, including Miguel Rojas’s game-tying homer in the ninth. The reason Smith’s game-winner ranks slightly ahead of Rojas’ game-tier is because even though it was a slightly less important spot in the game, the none-on, two-out situation made scoring the run less likely. We’re guessing neither Dodger will worry that much about which play ranks more highly on the list.
6) +39% cWPA -- Rajai Davis (Cleveland): 2016 WS, Game 7
2-run HR down 6-4 in the 8th, 2 outs
Cleveland didn’t win this, you might remember, but for a few fleeting moments, it sure seemed like the franchise's own decades-long title-less streak might be coming to an end. The Cubs took a 6-3 lead into the bottom of the eighth, but after Jon Lester got two outs and allowed a single, Aroldis Chapman entered and immediately allowed Brandon Guyer to double, driving in the fourth run. Now down by two, Davis hit a game-tying homer, giving Cleveland new life. It didn’t work out, of course, as the game went to extras and the Cubs took a lead in the 10th, but what’s forgotten here is that in the bottom of that inning, Davis drove in Guyer again, closing the deficit to one.
7) +36.8% cWPA -- Francisco Cabrera (Braves): 1992 NLCS, Game 7
RBI single down 2-1 in the 9th, 2 outs
This is the top moment on the list that didn't come in the World Series. While the other players on this list all had long, successful careers, this was Cabrera’s one shining moment in the Majors. A little-used backup catcher who played in fewer than 200 total regular-season games and was out of the Majors by 27, Cabrera had taken just one at-bat in the series by the time the bottom of the ninth rolled around in Game 7. Pittsburgh took a 2-0 lead into the inning, but Doug Drabek and Stan Belinda made a mess of it, loading the bases with two outs and 2-1 score for the pitcher’s spot, which led to Cabrera coming up as a pinch-hitter. His single to left scored David Justice as the tying run and Sid Bream following, just barely beating out Barry Bonds’s throw, and sending Atlanta to the World Series.
8) +36.7% cWPA -- Bill Mazeroski (Pirates): 1960 WS, Game 7
Solo HR in 9-9 tie in the 9th, no outs
Look, just because Mazeroski’s walk-off blast wasn’t the most impactful moment of the game doesn’t mean it wasn’t still one of the greatest moments in baseball history. Pittsburgh pitching in this Series posted a 7.11 ERA, by far the highest of any team to actually win the thing, and having two all-time homers on this list tells you a little about how exactly they were able to overcome such ineffective pitching.
9) +36% cWPA -- Jim Northrup (Tigers): 1968 WS, Game 7
RBI triple in 0-0 tie in the 7th, 2 outs
Northrup’s name doesn’t quite come with the bright lights of teammates Al Kaline and Mickey Lolich, but the born-and-bred Michigander contributed one of the most important moments in team history late in Game 7, with a classic Lolich vs. Bob Gibson pitchers' duel resulting in a scoreless tie entering the seventh inning. Gibson retired the first two Tigers, then allowed Norm Cash and Willie Horton to single. Northrup’s triple to deep center scored both, giving the Tigers a 2-0 lead they’d never relinquish.
10) +35.6% cWPA -- Bobby Thomson (Giants): 1951 tiebreaker
3-run HR down 4-2 in the 9th, 2 outs
Thomson’s homer -- yes, the literal “Shot Heard ‘Round The World’ -- came in, technically, a regular season game. At the time, the AL and NL champs went directly to the World Series after the regular season, but the Dodgers and Giants were tied, requiring a best-of-three tiebreaker. They split the first two, and were tied 1-1 as late as the eighth inning of this one. The Dodgers scored three in the top of the eighth to take a 4-1 lead, but the Giants had rallied to score one and put two on with one out for Thomson. A blast to left field later, and the Giants were off to the World Series. If you’re reading this, you can hear Russ Hodges yelling “The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!” without even needing the audio.