When might O's top prospects debut in '22?

Taking stock of the biggest questions facing the Orioles before Opening Day

March 29th, 2022

SARASOTA, Fla. -- The latest round of cuts to Orioles camp, as announced by executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias on Monday, started to clarify what type of team the O’s will be by Opening Day on April 8. But there’s still plenty left to sort out.

With that in mind, let’s revisit some of the biggest questions we had pegged for the Orioles at the outset of camp, gauging how much progress has been made thus far with our patented “Clarity Factor”:

1. When will Adley Rutschman arrive?
Clarity Factor: 6.5/10

While we don’t know when it will come, we know when it won’t, at the very least.

Rutschman sustained a right triceps strain at the outset of camp, unable to showcase the work he put in at Minor League camp as soon as the big leaguers arrived. It was a tough blow for the club’s top prospect, who’s progressed without a hitch, has taken part in light catching activities but is still at least a couple days away from ramping up into full baseball activities -- and thereby almost assuredly not a candidate for the Opening Day roster.

So when will he make his highly-anticipated debut? Probably not until the end of April, at the very least, if not into May. The club has said that it is taking the “long view” with the 24-year-old’s return, meaning he could get extended time at the Triple-A level before a Major League callup. Elias has also said that the club is not taking the new CBA stipulations -- which would award Draft picks to teams who call up top prospects for Opening Day that finish tops in year-end award voting -- into consideration when crafting their 28-man roster for April 8.

So the Rutschman show might have to wait a little bit more before it begins. But when he does, others may not be far behind him.

2. Is a big trade on the horizon?
Clarity Factor: 3/10

When manager Brandon Hyde revealed early in camp that would get some additional time at the corner outfield spots, it was interesting given the timing. Mancini has plenty of outfield experience in the past and has said he is feeling much more energized now two years removed from his cancer diagnosis, so it might be more of the natural progression of his return to full form. But could the O’s also be trying to showcase some of his positional flexibility?

Mancini’s name has swirled in trade rumors extending far beyond this past offseason. Now 30, he and the O’s are yet to engage in any extension talks, and the arbitration case sure changes the tenor of his fit going forward. Should the club want to clear room for some of their younger players, Mancini and stand to be the likeliest players out the door.

Now all that's left is to see if rumors are just rumors.

3. Who are the solutions in the infield?
Clarity Factor: 7/10

The O’s don’t feel like the talent is lacking to have a serviceable infield makeup in 2022, it’s more a matter of figuring out who fits where.  at first base is the only given. Next to him, Jorge Mateo, , Ramón Urías,  and  are all battling for a starting spot, with those like  and  also battling for a spot. Other prospects like Jahmai Jones,  and Terrin Vavra will have to start in the Minors.

Based on usage, it would appear some makeup of Owings, Mateo and Urías have the inside track to the lion’s share of playing time, quite possibly in that order from left to right. Each have had solid springs, trying to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Odor, one of the few Major League deals the Orioles made this spring, might have to work his way in off the bench or as a matchup-based starter against righties.

4. Will they dip further into free agency?
Clarity Factor: 9/10

Baltimore left itself open to signing a veteran starter who can stay back in Sarasota to build up and provide cover this season, but at this juncture of the schedule, the chances of that appear slimmer. Owings, , ,  and others were signed to Minor League deals this offseason and have a chance to make the club at some point or another this year, but the Orioles seem likely finished when it comes to adding from outside the organization.

Now, that could change once clubs start to make roster cuts and the O’s see fringe talent they can get the most out of on the waiver wire. But free agency, specifically? It’s clear the Carlos Correa rumors were just that.

5. Which other prospects could debut in 2022?
Clarity Factor: 4/10

The Rutschman-Grayson Rodriguez battery was tantalizing at Double-A Bowie in 2021. It appears they might not have to wait too long for a reunion at the Major League level.

Elias has been quite high on Rodriguez’s chances to make the Majors at some point in 2022, though likely not until the second half. And he could be joined by D.L. Hall, the club’s best left-handed prospect, in a similar timeframe. Kyle Bradish (No. 10 prospect) and Yusniel Diaz (No. 26) appeared real candidates for the Opening Day roster, but they were among the latest cuts at camp.

Now Kyle Stowers (No. 8) and Mike Baumann (No. 13) are the only remaining top O’s prospects with a chance to break camp with the team. Whether they do -- or when others follow -- will be the biggest storyline of the club’s 2022 season.