The safest players in rounds 1-10 of fantasy drafts

March 18th, 2024

What is safe when it comes to fantasy baseball? It can’t be the rookie who came up and closed the season with a wicked September, bringing comparisons to Albert Pujols. There’s no track record. Nor can it be the journeyman pitcher who suddenly puts together a string of starts that hark back to Pedro Martínez circa 1999. People look on the back of his baseball card and wonder where that came from.

That’s what this article is going to tackle, bringing fantasy managers one player for each of the first 10 rounds of Yahoo drafts who can be counted on to put up similar numbers to what they’ve done in the past. Players are listed with their average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo drafts.

Round 1: , 1B, Dodgers
ADP: 6.8

Did Freeman find the Fountain of Youth in L.A.? In his two seasons with the Dodgers, he’s hit .325 and .331, respectively, and filled out the homers, runs and RBIs categories to be the clear-cut top first baseman in fantasy baseball. That average mark should not be a surprise, as he’s hit over .300 every season but one since 2015. He’s even stolen 36 bags over the two seasons.

Even at age 34, Freeman does not show signs of letting up and is the fulcrum of the Dodger lineup.

Round 2: , 2B, Rangers
ADP: 24.1

Age (33) is just a number until Semien doesn’t play 162 games -- he’s missed just one game in the past three seasons. He’s also the leadoff hitter for the reigning World Series champions and is a near-lock for 25-plus home runs, double-digit steals and over 100 runs and RBIs.

Just select him and worry about the other positions in your lineup.

Round 3: , SS, Mets
ADP: 28.0

Lindor going about 15 picks after Trea Turner must feel like found money. Lindor’s counting stats will likely mirror Turner’s, and last year’s .254 average for Lindor is too low for a player whose lifetime mark is 20 points higher. He’s another player who hardly sits, missing just three games in the past two seasons and playing 158 or more games five times in his career. Hitting in front of Pete Alonso in a Mets lineup that should be better, Mr. Smile will make plenty of fantasy managers happy all season.

Round 4: , OF, Rays
ADP: 38.7

Getting a player who has reached 20-20 each of the past three seasons in this range is a boon. Arozarena almost doubled his walks from 2022 to 2023 -- 46 to 80 -- and that helped boost his run total to 95. There are more warts among outfielders after him.

Round 5: , 1B, Cardinals
ADP: 52.8

Goldy has hit at least 24 home runs in every season since 2015, so he may be the last of the safe first basemen to select in drafts. There will be some who say the production drop last year is the sign of aging, but he’ll still be in the middle of a Cardinals lineup that should still score plenty of runs.

Round 6: , UTIL, Phillies
ADP: 66.5

Roster construction will be important when drafting Schwarber to combat the low average, though he has fit in very nicely in that bandbox in Philadelphia by hitting 93 home runs combined in the past two seasons. He’ll help immensely in home runs, runs and RBIs, but that Mendoza-line batting average is going to be an anchor in that category. It would be nice to have him go back to stealing 10 bags like in 2022 after registering zero last year.

As you might imagine, this round proved difficult to find a safe pick, as several players with injury concerns are in this range.

Round 7: , 3B, Astros
ADP: 76.0

He’s entering his age-30 season, but Bregman will hit enough homers beyond that short porch in left field in Houston to finish in the mid-20s in taters. He’ll also flirt with triple digits in runs and RBIs, with a decent average.

Look at those who man the hot corner further down ADP and realize there is a bit of a cliff after Bregman.

Round 8: , SS, Padres
ADP: 93.0

In his 10 full seasons in the big leagues, Bogaerts has played in under 144 games once and hit double-digit home runs in all but a single season. He’ll hit toward the top of the Padres' lineup with some pop. He also added 19 steals last year. Bogaerts will also receive second-base eligibility in the early going, which is always a plus during the season.

Round 9: , OF, Pirates
ADP: 100.7

Averaging 25 home runs the past three seasons, Reynolds at 29 is in that boring-veteran phase that amigo Scott Pianowski likes to call the Raul Ibañez All-Stars. He’ll hit in the heart of a Pirates lineup that will finish in the middle of the NL Central, as he'll produce in relative anonymity.

But he’ll also reward fantasy managers who are waiting for outfielders in the draft.

Round 10: , OF, Blue Jays
ADP: 110.0

Back-to-back Ibañez All-Stars, as Springer at age 34 is a sure bet to hit 20 home runs. He’s hit that mark in each of his past seven full seasons. Springer also added 20 steals last year under the new rules, and if he’s able to keep that going he’s a find in this range.

A version of this story first appeared on Yahoo.com.