This story was excerpted from John Denton's Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ST. LOUIS -- While it’s not exactly breaking news that the Cardinals will play 162 games this season, it is noteworthy to point out that their season could be broken into 110- and 52-game segments based on how they fare against the rival Cubs in the coming days.
Play well in this current four-game set at Busch Stadium and again over what figures to be a wild July 4th weekend at Wrigley Field and the Cardinals could make up some serious ground on the National League Central Division-leading Cubs. Vault themselves into that race and the Cardinals could give themselves a chance to keep their roster intact, continue their stirring season and spend all 162 games of the campaign fighting for a playoff spot.
However, should the Cardinals wobble against the rival Cubs -- and invariably fall off the pace in the races for both the division title and a potential Wild Card slot -- it could have a monumental effect on their season and some of the players currently in the clubhouse. The Cardinals' players are aware of that fact, and that was one reason why they were so excited about Monday’s 8-2 throttling of Chicago in the series opener.
"You want to play well all throughout the season, but when you have a team that’s ahead of you, you can make up ground faster than usual,” said Lars Nootbaar, who smashed the first of four two-run home runs on Monday and another two-run homer in Tuesday's thrilling 8-7 win over Chicago.
“It seems like when we win ballgames, we’ll check the scores and they’re winning ballgames, too. But when we face each other and go head to head, it’s nice to test yourself against those guys.
"You never want to wait, but playing good baseball is always important. So, it’s big that we could come in and get a win over [the Cubs] in the first one.”
By the All-Star break, the Cardinals will have played 97 games, and they will land on the 110-game plateau at the end of July when the MLB Trade Deadline hits.
If the front office deems that the Cards can’t catch the Cubs or can’t keep pace with the Brewers, Padres and Giants for the final Wild Card slot, it could lead them to looking to deal closer Ryan Helsley, ace setup man Phil Maton or starting pitcher Erick Fedde. They’re also likely to gauge Nolan Arenado’s interest in playing for a championship contender and whether veterans Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas still want to stick it out in St. Louis.
Those potential deals, of course, would be a blemish to what has been one of the MLB’s best feel-good performances with how the Cards have defied expectations and played some of their best baseball against MLB’s upper crust (See: series wins over the Dodgers and Astros and two series victories over the Phillies).
The Cards have also defied the baseball gods by keeping all their starting pitchers healthy and they have wisely supplemented that group with spot starter Michael McGreevy -- a plan pitching coach Dusty Blake deserves credit for formulating. As for the offense, new hitting coach Brant Brown might get a statue of himself built outside of Busch Stadium with how he’s invigorated the lineup.
Then, there’s manager Oliver Marmol, who came into 2025 with the unenviable task of being mandated to provide “runway” for the young nucleus. Marmol has perfectly balanced providing opportunity, while also giving the Cardinals a chance to win daily. He shied away from Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman when they struggled early and went back to them when the results warranted it. The same can now be said for Jordan Walker, who looks to be the odd man out with Burleson, Gorman and Nootbaar thriving.
Marmol admitted on Monday that there could be some movement in the initial plans to ensure opportunities for young players. In the name of winning and staying in the race -- especially between now and the Trade Deadline on July 31 -- Marmol is planning to lean heavier on players who are producing.
"I think we have balanced the whole runway/performance thing well to this point, and all of our guys have had an opportunity,” Marmol said of how he’s mixed and matched lineups to provide extended looks to all players.
“But, at some point, it’s not a 50/50 balance, in my opinion. I think you have to start tilting and leaning toward the guys who are performing and playing -- and that’s what the last however many games have been about. You need to reward the guys who are taking steps in the right direction, while also being committed to the work with the guys who aren’t taking those big leaps.
"That hasn’t been the easiest thing to balance, but we’ve done it. Now, I’d like to reward the guys who are doing a good job.”