NL Central early-season schedule analysis

April 2nd, 2021

Advantage, Cardinals? Or is it the Cubs? Or might the Brewers benefit from getting the toughest part of their schedule out of the way early?

Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell is no fan of parsing the pocket schedule, arguing regularly that it all evens out in the end. Counsell’s club appears to have the toughest start to the regular season in the National League Central, which sent four of its five teams to the expanded postseason in 2020.

Last year, these teams beat up each other while playing exclusively against foes from baseball’s Central divisions. Now, the full schedule is back in play, and here’s how it looks for each club from Opening Day through May 2:

Brewers
• Home/road split: 16 at home, 12 on road
• Games in division: 9 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. Cardinals, 3 vs. Pirates
• Games vs. >.500 teams in 2020: 25 of 28
• Games vs. playoff teams in 2020: 25 of 28

There’s no easing into the regular season for the Brewers, who play more than half of their games through May 2 against reigning division champions in the Twins, Cubs (nine games) and Dodgers, and also catch 2020 playoff teams in the Cardinals, Padres and Marlins. The only non-playoff team in that span is Pittsburgh, which visits American Family Field from April 16-18. The Brewers do have the benefit of playing the majority of games at home, where they think left-handed hitting newcomers Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr. could get a power boost in 2021. -- Adam McCalvy

Cardinals
• Home/road split: 13 at home, 15 on road
• Games in division: 6 vs. Reds, 3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs. Pirates
• Games vs. >.500 teams in 2020: 9 of 28
• Games vs. playoff teams in 2020: 12 of 28

The ailing Cardinals can find some respite in the fact that they open the year with one of the easier schedules on paper, and boy could they use it. Without two-fifths of their rotation healthy, the Cards will open the season with three games at the Reds and then three at the Marlins -- a pair of teams projections are low on -- before opening at home against old friend Kolten Wong and the Brewers and then meeting intriguing NL East foes in the Nationals and Phillies. -- Zachary Silver

Cubs
• Home/road split: 15 at home, 13 on road
• Games in division: 9 vs. Brewers, 6 vs. Pirates, 3 vs. Reds
• Games vs. >.500 teams in 2020: 10 of 28
• Games vs. playoff teams in 2020: 19 of 28

A fast start is important for the Cubs this season not only to show they can keep their division crown, but for the front office to evaluate how to handle the Trade Deadline. April provides a great opportunity with six of the first nine games against the Pirates. That said, the Braves, Brewers and Mets (19 games combined) will present formidable foes and a good early litmus test. -- Jordan Bastian

Pirates
• Home/road split: 12 at home, 15 on road
• Games in division: 6 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. Reds, 3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs. Cardinals
• Games vs. >.500 teams in 2020: 19 of 27
• Games vs. playoff teams in 2020: 22 of 27

If the Pirates want to prove they can exceed their meager projections, they’re going to have to prove it early. The club opens its season with the vast majority of its games against opponents with winning records in 2020, including six games against the 2020 NL Central champion Cubs. Pittsburgh will benefit from five scheduled off-days in the first month, but the team will have to play well away from home, with 15 of its 27 games on the road. -- Jake Crouse

Reds
• Home/road split: 15 at home, 12 on road
• Games in division: 6 vs. Cardinals, 3 vs. Pirates, 3 vs. Cubs
• Games vs. >.500 teams in 2020: 15 of 27
• Games vs. playoff teams in 2020: 15 of 27

Little is easy for the Reds during the first month of the season. They open against a division powerhouse in the Cardinals and have not one, but two, West Coast road trips. More than half of their games are against teams that made the playoffs in 2020. They enter 2021 missing two members of the rotation in Sonny Gray and Michael Lorenzen, while outfielder Shogo Akiyama will also open the season on the IL. A fast start is always welcome but it could be a real boost for Cincinnati to weather its issues and come out strong. -- Mark Sheldon