Inbox: Which '25 draftees could be their organization's top prospect?

The busiest month on the prospect calendar has concluded, with the Draft and Futures Game taking place in mid-July and the Signing Deadline and the Trade Deadline making for a newsy final week.

As always, you had questions ...

It's that time again to ask my annual question: Which of the 2025 draftees will become their team's No. 1 prospect once they sign?
-- J.P. S., Springfield, Ill.

I believe J.P. has asked me this question for going on two decades now, back to when I was writing the "Ask BA" column at Baseball America. We'll add the draftees when we do our summer overhaul of the Top 100 Prospects list and organization Top 30s, which is scheduled for Aug. 11.

I previewed this in the June 27 Pipeline Inbox when I got asked to predict the answer to this question before we knew which teams drafted which players. At that time, I projected whomever the Nationals chose with the first pick would be their new No. 1 prospect. The only other definite club seemed to the Athletics (with the No. 11 pick), with the Angels (No. 2), Blue Jays (No. 8) and Royals (No. 23) mentioned as the only other possibilities.

Now that we know how the Draft unfolded, my perspective hasn't changed much. I'm not going to give anything away about our in-progress revisions, so I'll base this answer solely on how I would rank the players. I handle one-third of our Top 30 list, while Sam Dykstra and Jonathan Mayo also have equal shares.

Shortstop and No. 1 overall pick Eli Willits is an easy call to headline our Nationals Top 30, especially with right-hander Travis Sykora requiring Tommy John surgery. Left-hander Jamie Arnold would have been the Athletics' top prospect before yesterday, when they pulled off a stunning trade to acquire shortstop Leo De Vries (No. 3 overall) from the Padres.

After writing in June that I would lean to last year's third overall choice Charlie Condon over this year's fourth pick Ethan Holliday, I've changed my mind and believe Holliday should supplant Condon as the Rockies' best prospect. The only other close call is the Mariners, with shortstop Colt Emerson versus lefty and No. 2 selection Kade Anderson, but I'd stick with Emerson.

I'm going to use this question to highlight some great work done by other members of Team Pipeline. Jason Ratliff researched the history of trades since mlb.com began rating prospects in 2004, and Joe Trezza wrote a story that explains that De Vries is the highest-ranked phenom dealt in-season during that time period. Check that out here.

Let's try that trick one more time. Jonathan Mayo wrote about the five teams that added the most prospect talent at the Deadline. And I'll also mention that when he wasn't busy replacing a third of our Padres Top 30 yesterday, Sam Dykstra ranked the 25 best prospects who changed addresses.

Now back to answering the questions myself ...

Some scouts believe Tolle is the best lefty pitching prospect in baseball. Signed for an over-slot $2 million as a second-rounder out of Texas Christian a year ago, he leads all Minor Leaguers (minimum: 70 innings) in strikeout-minus-walk percentage (31 percent). The Red Sox' reluctance to part with him contributed to their inability to acquire a more significant starter than Dustin May at the Trade Deadline.

Tolle may have the most unhittable fastball in the Minors and has generated an astounding 43 percent swing-and-miss rate with the pitch while climbing to Double-A in his pro debut this season. He's 6-foot-6 and gets down the mound extremely well, creating elite extension and a low release that help his heater play up. Boston had him concentrate on improving his strength and athleticism after he signed, and his fastball jumped from averaging 91 mph and topping out at 96 at TCU to parking at 95 and peaking at 99 a year later.

Tolle also has added more power to what is now a mid-80s sweeping slider and an upper-80s changeup, and the Red Sox are having him use them more so they can get better. He's pounding the strike zone and he may wind up being the impact rotation piece Boston couldn't trade for yesterday. He looks like at least a No. 3 starter.

The Rays reeled the best nondrafted free agent this summer, using an unexpected surplus of bonus pool cash to sign Middle Tennessee State right-hander Trace Phillips for $629,200, the second-highest NDFA bonus ever behind the $732,500 the Reds paid T.J. Friedl in 2016. Ranked No. 206 on our Draft Top 250, Phillips was a potential top-three-rounds pick before a hand injury and a stress fracture in his lower back limited him to six starts this spring. He's a two-way player who could take off once he focuses on pitching, and both his fastball and slider are potential plus pitches.

I know Stevie D asked about unranked NDFAs, but I had to share my fascination with Phillips first.

The Dodgers signed Shaker HS (Latham, N.Y.) right-hander Tommy Case for $422,500. He can run his fastball up to 94 mph and shows good feel for spin.

Any NDFA money over $150,000 counts against a club's bonus pool, and two hitters received over-slot bonuses. Gainesville (Va.) HS outfielder Caden Merritt, who signed with the Braves for $197,500, has plus speed and projectable strength. West Virginia second baseman Sam White, who inked with the Blue Jays for $158,000, has good bat-to-ball skills and has played all over the diamond.

Of the NDFAs who didn't eat into pool money, Dallas Baptist outfielder Nathan Humphreys caught my eye. Signed by the Braves for $100,000, he's a good defender in center with some gap power and speed. His father Mike played briefly in the big leagues with the 1991-93 Yankees.