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ST. LOUIS – Trying his best to straddle the line between wanting to win today while also building for tomorrow, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol knows headaches are sure to ensue while attempting to accomplish both missions in the season ahead.
“It’s not perfect; none of it is,” Marmol said when asked how he will approach his daily lineup when he is also expected to get at-bats and exhibit patience for young players Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and Iván Herrera. “I’m going to do my absolute best to get everybody the necessary at-bats for us to know what we have at the end of the year. Everybody is healthy because we’re opening up, but we’ll see what we look like in 30 days, 60 days or 90 days.
“Things happen, and [crowded rotations] solve themselves. But we’ll have a rotation that gets guys at-bats, and we’ll see where we’re at as a team in a month.”
Despite a quiet offseason and initial plans to focus on a roster reset, the Cardinals and Marmol still believe they have enough talent to be a team that has high standards in terms of competing for a playoff spot. Time will tell if the club can successfully juggle its daily desires to win with its demands to develop.
Here is a closer look at what needs to go right, unknowns and likely team leaders in the season ahead:
What needs to go right?
Well, there are several levels to this question for the Cardinals.
They need to get off to a solid start to keep third baseman Nolan Arenado happy, dialed in and not pushing for another trade out of St. Louis. Arenado’s competitiveness is legendary; he’s all-in on the season, and he is still eager to play for a championship-contending team. However, another bad start like in 2022 and ‘23 could cause Arenado to start looking around at contending teams and pushing again for a trade. A return of his power production from the past could play a major role in the Cardinals staying in contention.
The club hopes to get Lars Nootbaar, Gorman and Walker 500-600 at-bats to know what they have in them before 2026. However, the team’s patience won’t be unlimited with those players if they continue to struggle. A so-so spring already has Gorman behind Alec Burleson in DH at-bats. The same could happen to Walker if he struggles or if Nootbaar is injured again.
Sonny Gray, who set multiple franchise records for strikeouts in 2024, must bounce back from his shaky finish to the season and his rocky Spring Training. There are concerns about the health of Gray’s arm – ones shared by him, as well – and the Cardinals need him to pitch like the ace he was over the first half of ‘24.
Among the other things that need to go right, the Cardinals must get 140-150 games played out of Willson Contreras, Masyn Winn and Nootbaar and more brilliance from closer Ryan Helsley. Contreras is poised for a spectacular season at the plate, while it’s time for Nootbaar to deliver on the promise he has flashed. As for Winn, there’s no good plan behind him at shortstop, so he must anchor the infield defense. Helsley saved 49 of 53 games last season, and if he can do that again, the Cardinals might be able to stay in the race for a playoff spot most of the season.
What’s the great unknown?
Will the Cardinals pull the chute on the season at some point and trade away Arenado, Helsley and starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Steven Matz?
As long as it stays in the chase for a playoff slot, the club will likely resist the urge to try to flip its veteran players for salary relief or prospects to build around. But, again, a fast start to the season is likely needed to keep the Cardinals from tearing apart their roster.
Helsley, who ended last season thinking he had pitched his last game as a Cardinal, could potentially bring back the biggest return from a team that is positioned to challenge the Dodgers. Helsley will be a free agent at the end of the season, and that makes him the most likely Cardinal to be moved before the July 31 Trade Deadline. He will pitch this season under the looming specter of a trade, but also with the knowledge that another tremendous season could potentially land him a $100 million contract.
Injuries to starting pitchers could lure teams into kicking the tires on Fedde and Matz, both of whom are free agents at the end of the season. Both came to Spring Training in great shape and pitched well.
The Cardinals’ MVP will be … Contreras
Contreras’ smooth transition from catcher to first base was one of the bright spots of Spring Training. The Cardinals feel that the move to first will keep Contreras healthier and keep his prodigious bat in the lineup for what they hope will be at least 140 games. Not having to deal with the wear and tear of catching – not to mention all the game-planning pregame – seemed to benefit Contreras in Spring Training, when he hit .405 with a .511 on-base percentage and an eye-popping 1.160 OPS. If Contreras can post All-Star-like numbers offensively, St. Louis might be able to stay in the playoff chase.
The Cardinals’ Cy Young will be … Helsley
Helsley authored the finest season for a reliever in Cardinals history when he proved to be almost untouchable as a closer. He has plenty of motivation to repeat the feat this season with free agency looming, and he could be even more overpowering with the advent of a cutter that will run in on lefties and away from righties. The burning questions center around getting him enough save opportunities and the Cardinals replacing key setup man Andrew Kittredge with newcomer Phil Maton.
Bold prediction
The Cardinals will surprise some with a solid bullpen, a manageable pitching staff and a lineup that should hit better with runners in scoring position. That will keep them around .500 and in the playoff chase for a few months before falling off the pace. That will likely lead to several trades that could make the end of the season look nothing like the promising start. My prediction: 77-85 and fourth in the National League Central.