Who will win Rookie of the Year in '26? We polled baseball execs

Welcome to the fourth annual MLB Pipeline Executive Poll. Starting before the 2023 season, we surveyed front offices across baseball -- from general managers to scouting directors, farm directors, analysts and beyond -- on a number of questions regarding prospects.

As has been our tradition, we’re beginning with who they think will win Rookie of the Year honors in each league in 2026. They started out on fire in '23, choosing Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll, both of whom took home that hardware. In 2024, NL winner Paul Skenes and third-place finisher Jackson Chourio got votes, though the survey leaders were Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the National League and Evan Carter in the American League.

Last year, the industry picked Dylan Crews and Roman Anthony (though most felt Roki Sasaki would be the front-runner in whichever league he signed). Drake Baldwin, the NL winner, didn’t appear on a ballot. In the AL, winner Nick Kurtz did get some attention and Anthony finished third in actual voting at season’s end.

Can front offices hit the nail on the head in '26? There’s far from a consensus in either league this time around, with more than 40 front office officials weighing in on an array of topics that will be discussed in a week-long series.

Let’s kick things off with the results of the American League Rookie of the Year survey:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Also received votes: Jamie Arnold, LHP, A’s; Travis Bazzana, 2B, Guardians; Max Clark, OF, Tigers; Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians; Leo De Vries, SS, A’s; Colt Emerson, SS, Mariners; Gage Jump, LHP, Athletics; Carson Williams, SS, Rays

That’s a total of 14 players getting at least one vote. And having two leaders at the top, one pitcher and one hitter, is something that will be mirrored when we get to the NL. It’s interesting, though, that the two tied in the AL are a pitcher who starred in the postseason and a hitter who has yet to play a game above Double-A.

Trey Yesavage (MLB No. 26), taken by the Blue Jays as the No. 20 overall pick in the '24 Draft, had a meteoric rise through Toronto’s system in '25, starting the season with Single-A Dunedin and finishing it by appearing in three World Series games as perhaps the most dependable arm on the postseason staff. He’s still only 22 and it will be fascinating to see if he can pick up where he left off and how the league adjusts after getting a longer look at him, especially that devastating splitter.

Kevin McGonigle (MLB No. 2) will be just 21 for most of the '26 season and has a grand total of 46 games above A ball on his resume. But he also has a career .922 OPS in the Minors, and some voters were no doubt swayed by his Arizona Fall League showing in '25, when he was named MVP after posting a .362/.500/.710 slash line with five homers and 19 RBIs in 19 games. He’s considered by many to be the best pure hitter in the Minors, with an advanced approach that should enable him to hold his own at the plate. Where he fits in the Tigers’ infield might be one of the more intriguing storylines in Lakeland this spring. He’s primarily been a shortstop (where he’ll see plenty of time in Spring Training), could no doubt handle second base and looked good at third in the AFL.

The other four on our leaderboard all have at least touched the big leagues. Samuel Basallo (MLB No. 7) debuted in August, just days after his 21st birthday, and homered four times in 109 at-bats. The power will play and it’ll be interesting to see how the Orioles get him at-bats behind the plate, at first base and as a DH. Carter Jensen (MLB No. 39) was a September callup for the Royals and after a solid debut (.941 OPS in 60 ABs), he should get a chance to make the Opening Day roster, learning behind Salvador Perez and getting plenty of plate appearances as a DH as well. Payton Tolle (MLB No. 28) and Connelly Early (BOS No. 4) are two Red Sox lefties who showed glimpses of what might be possible with a full season in Boston’s rotation.

In addition to the Red Sox, the Tigers (Max Clark, McGonigle), Guardians (Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana) and A’s (Jamie Arnold, Leo De Vries) all had multiple vote-getters. It was the Athletics who finished 1-2 in the AL ROY voting in '25, with Jacob Wilson (who got multiple survey votes a year ago) right behind Kurtz.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Also received votes: Carson Benge, OF, Mets; Aidan Miller, SS, Phillies; Thomas White, LHP, Marlins

There was a clear top three among the 10 players who received votes in the NL, and like with the AL, it’s led by a hitter who has yet to get a single big league at-bat and a pitcher who made a very strong first impression at the highest level.

Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt (MLB No. 5) had an outstanding first full season of pro ball after being the No. 7 overall pick in the 2024 Draft, splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A and posting a combined .306/.421/.510 slash line with 17 homers and 23 steals. Some were surprised he didn’t get a late-season audition in St. Louis, but you have to figure his bat will work its way into that lineup sooner rather than later. He’s played three infield positions, which should help give the big league staff options for him to make the Opening Day roster.

Like Yesavage, Nolan McLean (MLB No. 11) not only made his Major League debut, but did so under a very large spotlight, making eight outstanding starts down the stretch during the Mets’ ill-fated playoff push. With a 2.06 ERA, 10.7 K/9 rate and .200 average-against, McLean was the Mets’ best starter at the end of the season and is the only vote-getter in either '26 survey to have received actual ROY votes in '25. He was just two innings shy of surpassing rookie status for the upcoming season.

Behind the two leaders is No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin, and the fact he received such a healthy percentage of votes shows how far and how fast he’s come. The No. 9 overall pick in the '24 Draft, Griffin went from Single-A Bradenton to Double-A Altoona and hit absolutely everywhere, finishing with a combined .333/.415/.527 line, 21 homers and 65 steals, making him the easy pick for MLB Pipeline’s Hitting Prospect of the Year award. He should get a long look this spring at shortstop and clearly several executives believe he belongs.

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Of the remaining four on the leaderboard, Bubba Chandler (MLB No. 14) and Sal Stewart (MLB No. 31) have big league time, while Justin Crawford (MLB No. 54) and Zyhir Hope (MLB No. 20) do not. Chandler should be in the Pirates’ rotation (and is the only player who got votes in last year’s poll to appear this time around), and Stewart in the Reds’ lineup, from Day 1 of the '26 season. All signs point to Crawford getting every chance to roam the outfield for Philadelphia on Opening Day, while Hope is a bit of a long-shot play.

With Griffin and Chandler, the Pirates are the only team with two players among the leaders, but the Phillies (Aidan Miller, Crawford) and the Mets (Carson Benge, McLean) also had multiple prospects receiving votes.