Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes set the bar high on the pitching side in 2025.
Skubal became the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez to repeat as the American League Cy Young Award winner, while Skenes followed up an incredible rookie season with a National League Cy Young crown.
While there are big-name contenders to dethrone Skubal and Skenes in 2026 -- Garrett Crochet and Cristopher Sánchez; Hunter Brown and Yoshinobu Yamamoto; and Max Fried and Chris Sale, to name a few of the most likely candidates -- there's always a chance of a surprise season from a less-heralded hurler.
We drafted six pitchers -- three in the AL and three in the NL -- who could be dark horse candidates to win the Cy Young this season.
AL CANDIDATES
1. Bryan Woo, RHP, Mariners
Why he’s a dark horse: Isn’t everyone not named Skubal or Crochet? But in all seriousness, Woo is in a stacked rotation where pretty much anyone is a potential vote-getter, making him more likely to split the vote. And even though he established himself in a big way last season, he’s more inexperienced and younger than most (but certainly not all) of the others who are usually atop the current lists of favorites for the award. He’s barely a dark horse, but this will be the last year he even remotely qualifies for that designation.
Why he could win the Cy: Woo got a ton of well-deserved recognition for his streak of 25 starts to begin the season going at least six innings. It wasn’t just the length. He walked two or fewer batters in each of those as well. That’s the second-longest streak of starts of at least six innings with two or fewer walks to start a season since the mound was moved to its current distance (1893), behind none other than Cy Young (30) in 1905, per Elias. But Woo had been making a name for himself before that, too. Consider this: there are five pitchers who had a sub-2.95 ERA in at least 20 starts in each of the last two seasons: Skenes, Skubal, Sale, Zack Wheeler and Woo. Add him to the list of perennial candidates.
-- Sarah Langs
2. Joe Ryan, RHP, Twins
Why he’s a dark horse: Playing for a Twins team that is not expected to contend this season, Ryan likely will be overlooked in preseason award predictions. He also doesn’t get much hype because his fastball, which he throws half the time, sits in the 93-94 mph range at a time when velocity is what draws buzz and eyeballs.
Why he could win the Cy: Smack in the middle of his prime at 29, Ryan has posted a solid 3.50 ERA across the past two years, but his other stats -- including a 1.01 WHIP and 341 strikeouts over 306 innings (10.0 K/9) -- have been elite. If he can give up fewer gopher balls than his 1.3 HR/9 rate over that span, that could shave his ERA closer to league-leader territory. Oh, and that fastball mentioned above? Despite the velo, it’s consistently been among the best in baseball in terms of run value (+17 in 2025, +15 in 2024, +14 in 2023). To top things off, a possible midseason-trade narrative could factor in if Ryan is moved and helps propel a team to the postseason. All of the above could make him a sneaky entrant in the discussion for hardware.
-- Jason Catania
3. Ryan Weathers, LHP, Yankees
Why he’s a dark horse: In a fully healthy Yankees rotation, Weathers has at least Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón pitching ahead of him. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to be the fourth-best pitcher on the Yankees this year. He just has a lot of bigger names around him. Plus, Weathers is still looking to pitch 100 innings in a season for the first time. He's been injury prone.
Why he could win the Cy: If someone's going to dethrone Skubal for AL Cy Young, it's going to be someone who has stuff like Skubal's. Well, guess who has stuff like Skubal's? Weathers is a power-pitching lefty whose closest comps by raw stuff are Skubal, Crochet and Jesús Luzardo.
He's 26 years old. He's absolutely ripping his pitches in Spring Training, averaging 98 mph on his four-seam fastball, 97 mph on his sinker, 90 mph on his slider, 89 mph on his changeup and 85 mph on his sweeper. He's throwing the hardest of any lefty starter this spring … even ahead of Skubal. A southpaw with extreme velocity and a diverse pitch arsenal is a cheat code. That's why the Major Leagues are dominated by elite lefties right now. Weathers could be the next one if he can just stay in the Yankees' rotation all year.
-- David Adler
NL CANDIDATES
1. Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Phillies
Why he’s a dark horse: To start, Luzardo will be competing with other excellent starters within his rotation that features names like Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Then there’s the fact that he had a 3.92 ERA and 112 ERA+ in 183 2/3 innings last season, solid run-prevention numbers but not spectacular. The Phillies left-hander has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, only clearing 100 innings in a season three times since debuting in 2019.
Why he could win the Cy: Luzardo’s 3.92 ERA last season was significantly higher than all of his ERA indicators, like his 3.33 expected ERA and 2.90 FIP. He punched out 216 hitters and boasted an excellent 87th percentile whiff rate, all while throwing strikes at an above-average clip. With a pair of 96-plus mph heaters and three secondaries that produced gaudy whiff rates -- including a 43.7 percent whiff rate and 95 strikeouts on a new sweeper -- there could be even more potential for Luzardo. The 28-year-old Luzardo, who agreed to a five-year, $135 million extension with the Phillies this week, could be primed for a huge season.
-- Brent Maguire
2. Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets
Why he’s a dark horse: Even after a brilliant eight-start cameo in the pennant race last season, McLean still has rookie eligibility -- hence his standing as the No. 6 overall prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline. Of note, Fernando Valenzuela is the only player to win both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young honors in the same season, with the left-hander claiming both awards in 1981. The projection systems don’t expect McLean to give Valenzuela company. ZiPS sees the righty posting a 3.94 ERA, which would be the fourth highest on the Mets pitching staff. Meanwhile, Steamer projects McLean for 2.0 fWAR, which isn’t in the top 60 among pitchers. Those numbers are good -- especially for a 24-year-old in his first full big league season -- but they’re not Cy Young-worthy.
Why he could win the Cy: Let’s not forget how brilliant McLean was last season, small sample size and all. His 30.3% strikeout rate ranked 12th highest among starting pitchers to throw at least 40 innings in 2025. Only 10 pitchers were more valuable than McLean after he reached the majors in mid-August, and there’s some pretty elite company on that list. Hitters didn’t want to face him, either: Bryce Harper, McLean’s teammate for Team USA at the World Baseball Classic, recently said that McLean was the best arm that he saw last year.
That’s because McLean’s arsenal is straight out of a video game. He wields multiple fastball shapes and spins a pair of breaking balls with outlier movement profiles, covering all quadrants of the strike zone. This spring, his repertoire looks even sharper: McLean’s four-seam fastball velocity sat at 97.1 mph in his World Baseball Classic start against Italy after averaging 95.8 mph in the Majors in 2025.
Given all of that, it wouldn’t be a surprise if McLean becomes a legitimate Cy Young contender in 2026.
-- Jared Greenspan
3. Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins
Why he’s a dark horse: Pérez is only 22 (turning 23 on April 15), and his Major League career amounts to 39 starts and 186 2/3 innings split between the 2023 and '25 seasons. He missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and his run prevention was inconsistent after he returned in June. Pérez posted a 1.29 ERA in a brilliant July but had marks of 6.19 in June, 5.60 in August and 4.88 in September. His quality of contact allowed and his walk rate were both below the MLB average.
Why he could win the Cy: If someone is going to topple the likes of Skenes for the NL Cy, it needs to be someone with an extremely high ceiling -- even if the chances of reaching that ceiling in 2026 are minimal. That’s Pérez, who this year will get a chance to pitch a full MLB season for the first time, if he can stay healthy (no small "if," to be sure). Doing so would require him topping his previous career high in innings -- 128 in the Majors and Minors combined -- by at least 40-50.
Should that happen, the raw materials are here for Pérez to have a scene-stealing breakout. The emerging magician is massive (6-foot-8) and comes at hitters with a power arsenal, including a 98 mph four-seamer, 90 mph changeup and 86 mph slider. Among all pitchers with 90-plus innings in 2025, his 118 Stuff+ trailed only Hunter Greene, putting Pérez just ahead of the likes of Crochet and Skubal. And again, that was in his return from Tommy John.
Pérez misses bats and piles up K’s. Even last year, batters hit just .195 against him. His Statcast expected ERA of 3.23 was a full run lower than his actual ERA and ranked in the 83rd percentile. If he can make some minor adjustments and refinements to his pitch mix and his command, a Cy is not out of the question.
-- Andrew Simon