The Mariners quickly find themselves on a high swing entering the second half, on the heels of a big haul in the MLB Draft, Cal Raleigh winning the Home Run Derby and a three-game sweep the weekend prior over the team with MLB’s best record.
Things are on the up, but it’s really just one week in the gauntlet of a six-month season. They’ll need to carry some semblance of this momentum into what’ll be a grind to start the second half, when they play 17 games in as many days.
With all that in mind, and the All-Star break in the immediate rearview, here’s a Midterm Report of where things stand in Seattle:
One second-half goal: Reach the postseason
After missing the dance in each of the past two years as the first team on the outside looking in -- by just one game apiece, to boot (excluding tiebreakers) -- anything less than playing into October would be a massive disappointment.
After a three-game sweep over the Tigers, the Mariners regained momentum heading into the All-Star break, especially when considering that it came on the heels of arguably their worst loss of the season on Thursday in New York.
Seattle has a 72.7% chance to reach the playoffs, per FanGraphs, which is the fifth best in the American League. But the club has struggled to gain ground on first-place Houston for the division lead, which it carried for five weeks earlier this season.
Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Be as bold as the market will allow
Sources have said that the Mariners will have financial backing to increase payroll for the final two months of the season, though by how much remains unclear. They also have a farm system ranked No. 5 in the sport by MLB Pipeline to deal from.
Both factors could position the club to be one of the most aggressive ahead of the July 31 Deadline, but it could also be handcuffed to what’s available. Outside the 12 teams currently occupying a playoff spot, including Seattle, there are nine teams within five games of the final Wild Card spots in each league. Clarity should come, but most in the industry have forecasted it to be a seller’s market.
Key player: CF Julio Rodríguez
It’s no coincidence that the Mariners pulled off that Detroit sweep on the shoulders of their extremely-talented-but-oft-inconsistent center fielder, who looked like a justified All-Star and not the debatable one who was selected via the vote from players or the Commissioner’s Office.
Rodriguez, who raised his season OPS by a sizable 44 points last weekend alone (from .687 to .731), wound up passing on the Midsummer Classic to rest up for the second half. That reset could be a boon for the Mariners, as Rodriguez has a career .903 OPS after the All-Star break compared to a .737 OPS before.
Prospect to watch: C Harry Ford
Ford could be the organization’s most fascinating player to follow in the coming weeks, both in the context of the Deadline (he might be their most valuable trade chip) and what comes after (he’s as close to the Majors as any prospect in their system, and nearly made his debut last month when Mitch Garver had an injury scare). The club also selected one of the more developed college catchers in this year’s Draft with its second-round pick (Luke Stevenson), adding even more intrigue to Ford’s longer-term status.
Games remaining: 66 (Home, 36; Away, 30)
Remaining strength of schedule: .491, tied for eighth easiest in MLB, fifth in AL, second in AL West
Key series
- Aug. 15-20 @ NYM/PHI: Huge East Coast swing against two contenders, with the Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., sandwiched in between.
- Sept. 19-21 @ HOU: Final road series of the season, and against the team they’ve been chasing in the division for a decade.
- Sept. 26-28 vs. LAD: Final series of the season, and against the reigning champs, to boot.