Top 100 Prospect callups keep coming. In the last eight days, Mets second baseman Ronny Mauricio, Yankees outfielder Jasson Domínguez, Reds right-hander Connor Phillips, Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar and Rangers outfielder Evan Carter have been summoned to make their big league debuts. And a couple of those guys are part of the answer to our first Pipeline Inbox question ...
I'll give you three in each league and rank them in the order of likelihood that they win the award next year. In the American League, Twins second baseman Brooks Lee is the favorite, followed by Carter and Tigers third baseman Colt Keith. In the National League, Lawlar is the top candidate with Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes right behind him. For me, the combination of hitting ability and opportunity make Lee and Lawlar the frontrunners.
Outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad could factor into the AL mix, but I'm not sure there are enough 2024 at-bats for them in a crowded Orioles lineup. Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison will push his way into the NL race but I opted to go with Skenes, who should join Pittsburgh early enough in the season to make a significant impact.
Padres catcher Ethan Salas pulled off this feat in the span of eight months this year. He signed for $5.6 million in January, didn't make our initial 2023 Top 100 later that month and jumped all the way to No. 5 when we overhauled the current list in August.
If we're talking about going from outside the Top 100 to cracking the top 10 next season, it's probably going to be a young player making his full-season debut. In my decade at MLB.com, the only other prospect besides Salas to make that dramatic a leap was 19-year-old Ronald Acuña in 2017, his first healthy year in full-season ball.
Two international players who fit that profile are Reds catcher Alfredo Duno and Dodgers shortstop Joendry Vargas. Duno has huge power as well as the receiving skills and arm strength to remain at catcher, while Vargas' ceiling is a righty-hitting version of Corey Seager. Two 2023 draftees to watch are Marlins left-hander Thomas White, who has the potential for three plus pitches, and Giants first baseman/right-hander Bryce Eldridge, who has huge raw power.
These guys probably aren't going to soar into the top 10 in 2024, but they're all talented enough to get there as they continue to develop.
Yes, right-hander Orion Kerkering could go from 2022 fifth-rounder out of South Florida to eventual closer for the Phillies. It's also not out of the question that he could begin saving games in the Majors at some point next season.
Kerkering has one of the best sliders in the Minors, a wipeout upper-80s offering with sweep and depth that has generated a 47 percent swing-and-miss rate since he arrived in Double-A in July. He relies heavily on his slider but also dodges a lot of bats with a riding fastball that sits around 97 mph and tops out at 102.
Kerkering has dominated in his first full pro season, posting a 1.66 ERA, .172 opponent average and 71/12 K/BB ratio in 48 2/3 innings while rising from Single-A to Double-A. Among Minor Leaguers who have worked at least as many innings, he ranks third in strikeout minus walk percentage (31.4). If I were running the Phillies, I'd promote him now and find out if he could make the postseason roster.
As for righties Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, they both have quality stuff but need to provide a lot more strikes. Abel has yet to pitch in Triple-A and McGarry got bombed for 20 runs in 4 1/3 innings at that level before Philadelphia placed him on the developmental list. Both need Triple-A innings to hone their control before they’ll be ready to succeed in the big leagues, and they could get called up in the second half of 2024.
The Orioles have MLB Pipeline's top-ranked farm system, and one of the main reasons why is their offensive firepower. Kjerstad (No. 24), corner infielder Coby Mayo (No. 27) and catcher Samuel Basallo (No. 47) all sit in the upper half of the Top 100 and all have 30-homer upside.
Mayo has the most raw power among the trio, though it's close. Kjerstad might have as much usable pop as Mayo because he provides a bit more consistent contact and has the platoon advantage in his favor more often as a left-handed hitter. Making his full-season debut as an 18-year-old, Basallo could surpass them both and has hit .326/.439/.652 with seven homers in 25 games in his first month in High-A.
A case could be made for any of these three guys having more power than the others, and I'll side with Mayo. But I'll also throw in the caveat that shortstop Jackson Holliday, who went No. 1 overall in the 2022 Draft and ranks No. 1 on the Top 100, is such a gifted hitter that he might hit more big league homers than his fellow Orioles farmhands.