I still have Draft Fever following the Draft Lottery and publishing my first (way too early) first-round projection for 2026! So let's keep the focus on the Draft in the latest Pipeline Inbox ...
UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky currently is the runaway favorite to go No. 1 overall to the White Sox, but he's not quite the biggest December lock from the last decade.
That distinction belongs to Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, who entered 2019 coming off a .408/.505/.628 sophomore season that included Most Outstanding Player accolades at the College World Series. He wound up becoming the No. 1 choice by the Orioles after an even better junior year, holding off Bobby Witt Jr. in a particularly strong Draft class. After Rutschman and Cholowsky, the most clear-cut December top prospect was Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker in 2021, though he slid to the Mets at No. 10 after inconsistencies during his Draft year.
2026 Draft:
If we take Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS shortstop Grady Emerson and Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron out of the mix, who else might make a run at Cholowsky for the top pick? Another shortstop, Gulliver Prep's (Miami) Jacob Lombard, has the all-around ability to jump into the mix. Don't sleep on Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, who's 5-foot-9 but productive and toolsy. Louisiana State's Derek Curiel could be a factor if he develops more power and shows he can handle center field.
Last year included some dramatic jumps between our preseason Draft Top 100 in December and the actual picks in July. Kade Anderson (No. 44 on the original list) went third overall to the Mariners, Doyle (No. 75) went fifth to the Cardinals, Parker (No. 86) went eighth to the Blue Jays and Steele Hall (unranked!) went ninth to the Reds.
That was an unusually volatile year, however. There was only one leap like that in 2024, with Christian Moore rising from No. 67 in our preseason ranking to the eighth selection by the Angels. Each of the top 10 choices in 2023 ranked 16th or better on our initial Draft Top 100.
The obvious answer is that if we could see those climbs coming, we'd rank the players accordingly. Arkansas left-hander Hunter Dietz (No. 38 on the Top 100) does stick out, however. He has totaled 1 2/3 innings in two college seasons because of a stress fracture in his elbow, but he looked like a potential top-10 pick during fall practice with a fastball that reached 99 mph with good shape and flashes of a hammer upper-70s curveball.
I see two high school bats who could significantly climb Draft boards in the spring. Etowah HS (Woodstock, Ga.) outfielder Trevor Condon (No. 32) may have the best combination of pure hitting ability and speed in the prep class. Nazareth Academy (La Grange Park, Ill.) infielder Landon Thome (No. 42), the son of Hall of Famer Jim, is one of the best all-around hitters among the high schoolers.
Great mock! I'm wondering, though, did you project picks all the way out to pick No. 40 to get to everyone's first selections?
-- Jonathan M., Pittsburgh
First Round
- White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
- Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS
- Twins: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
- Giants: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
- Pirates: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep, Miami
- Royals: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C.
- Orioles: Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State
- Athletics: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
- Braves: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla.
- Rockies: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
- Nationals: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
- Angels: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian
- Cardinals: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia
- Marlins: Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M
- Diamondbacks: Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS, Concord, Calif.
- Rangers: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
- Astros: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State
- Reds: Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M
- Guardians: Eric Becker, SS, Virginia
- Red Sox: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
- Padres: Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS, Pomona, Calif.
- Tigers: Rocco Maniscalco, SS, Oxford (Ala.) HS
- Cubs: Chris Rembert, 2B, Auburn
- Mariners: Gabe Gaeckle, RHP, Arkansas
- Brewers: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, Ga.
Supplemental First Round
- Braves: Gavin Grahovac, 3B, Texas A&M
- Mets: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
- Astros: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville
- Guardians: Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS, Santa Rosa Beach, Fla.
- Royals: Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, Kingsburg (Calif.) HS
- Diamondbacks: Jarren Advincula, 2B, Georgia Tech
- Cardinals: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss.
- Orioles: Caden Bogenpohl, OF, Missouri State
- Pirates: Kaden Waechter, RHP, Jesuit HS, Tampa, Fla.
- Yankees: Will Brick, C, Christian Brothers HS, Memphis, Tenn.
- Phillies: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
- Rockies: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
Second Round
- Rockies: Shane Sdao, LHP, Texas A&M
- Blue Jays: Blake Bowen, OF, JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.
- Dodgers: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
- White Sox: Landon Thome, 2B/3B, Nazareth Academy, La Grange Park, Ill.
Both of the 2025 Rookie of the Year Award winners, Drake Baldwin and Nick Kurtz, had played in the Arizona Fall League the season before. That's the third time that's happened, with Ryan Howard and Huston Street going from the AFL in 2004 to ROY in 2005, and two guys named Bryce Harper and Mike Trout doing the same in 2011-12.
All told, 38 Fall League alumni have won Rookie of the Year Awards. Besides Baldwin and Kurtz, other recent players who went from the AFL one offseason to top rookie accolades the following year include Cody Bellinger (2016-17), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2017-18) and Pete Alonso (2018-19).
The clear-cut candidate from this year's Fall League contingent is Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle, the developmental circuit's MVP. He's the best pure hitter in the Minors, No. 2 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospect list and coming off a .305/.408/.583 season in which he had more extra-base hits (52) and walks (59) than strikeouts (46) while reaching Double-A at age 20. He'll force his way into Detroit's lineup at some point in 2026, perhaps by Opening Day.
White Sox outfielder Braden Montgomery and left-hander Hagen Smith and Rockies first baseman Charlie Condon are longshot possibilities. But they're more likely to reach the Majors at midseason than accumulate enough playing time to win Rookie of the Year awards.