With the glorious World Baseball Classic in the rearview mirror and the 2026 Major League Baseball season just days away from getting started, it’s time for MLB.com’s Will Leitch and Mike Petriello to get together for their annual World Series draft. From 1-30, Mike and Will choose teams based only on “Who’s going to win the World Series in 2026?”
Maybe, you think, the top pick is easy -- and it was. It gets pretty tricky after that.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Petriello: Over at FanGraphs, the Dodgers have 27% odds to win the World Series, which is a wildly high number, higher than the next three teams combined. On the other hand, that’s also 73% odds of not winning the World Series.
I completely get that this is not how people will view such things, that the back-to-back champs who then went and added Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz probably makes for an unstoppable, unkillable, baseball-destroying machine. Maybe that’s how it’ll work out, too. But also, last year’s team won a good-not-great 93 games, finishing as the No. 3 seed in the NL – they didn’t even get a bye! – and if any one of a thousand tiny moments in the World Series goes a different way, they lose to a Blue Jays team that generally did outplay them. (No amount of payroll makes Miguel Rojas, of all people, hit one of the most impactful home runs in the history of the sport.)
Anyway, I’m taking them here because I’d be a fool not to, but I stand by what I said in my look at the 2026 Tiers of Baseball: This year’s Dodgers will have the wildly good record-challenging regular season everyone has long expected … and then manage to pull a 2001 Mariners by losing to an inferior team in a best-of-five or best-of-seven set in the playoffs.
2. Seattle Mariners
Leitch: This is the best team they’ve had since 2001, no question. Now they’ve got that proverbial sea monkey off their proverbial sea backs (they’re Mariners, see) with that division title, and now that the rest of their division seems to be retreating into its (sea) shells (with the exception of … the A’s?), I think they’re the obvious choice here.
Remember when this team had a great rotation, Julio Rodríguez and not much else? Now the offense is driving everything; it turns out having your switch-hitting catcher turn into a 60-homer hitter makes a pretty big difference. (Also, Brendan Donovan is precisely what this team needed.) And the pitching staff is still really good. I think they may win their division by 10 games. Remember how loud it was in Seattle all October? That’s happening again. I can’t wait.
3. Chicago Cubs
Petriello: I am not blind to the fact that the Brewers are the three-time NL Central champions, and that the Cubs haven’t actually won their division in a full season since way back in 2017. And yet: I picked Chicago here, not Milwaukee. It wouldn’t be a season preview if someone wasn’t out here failing to fully respect Milwaukee, right? Why should this year be any different?
Part of this is that winning the division isn’t a requirement for winning the World Series, so even if the Cubs finish second again, they could still get the ring, but also I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen of Shota Imanaga this spring, and I have hope they can unlock Edward Cabrera a bit. The lackluster rotation has had me down on this team the last few seasons – and I regret to say that I do not share everyone’s optimism about Cade Horton – but it’s at least deeper. The defense is great. They should hit.
I have to admit, though: It's very uncomfortable picking this team this high. You could probably order teams 3-13 here in any way you like. I sure hope Seiya Suzuki is healthy, though. We couldn’t have waited another day, Will?
4. New York Mets
Leitch: The Mets waved goodbye to longtime fan favorites Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and then they didn’t get Kyle Tucker. Say what you will about the Mets, but when they pivot, they pivot hard: Just like that, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert were all here, suddenly, and the Mets' roster made a lot more sense.
Peralta is obviously the key addition, the veteran who allows those young pitchers to work through whatever they need to work through; either they’ll stick and be ready to rock in October, or they won’t and the Mets will do whatever it takes to get Sandy Alcantara or Joe Ryan or Luis Severino (... or Tarik Skubal?) at the Trade Deadline. The Mets clearly wanted to move on from the past and start being the team David Stearns and Steve Cohen have been building. They look very close. Oh, and I think Juan Soto’s finally getting that MVP Award this year.
5. New York Yankees
Petriello: Yes, yes, I get it. I am sorry to all my Canadian friends. If my passport is no longer eligible for trips to Toronto, I understand. And yet: Even though it feels like the Blue Jays were 10 games better than the Yankees, they did finish tied atop the AL East. New York did that without Gerrit Cole, and without a functional shortstop. That Toronto clearly outplayed the Yankees in the ALDS is indisputable, but also winning a best-of-five series has little predictive value in the next season, especially when each roster has gone through changes. (And, we assume, Ernie Clement looks mildly less like Ted Williams.)
The Yankees are not a perfect team. There are some clear flaws. They also still have Aaron Judge and return most of a 94-win team, which, again, is really good, with the promise of Cole’s return. Somehow not enough people realize how good Ben Rice is, and everyone wants to see what a full season of Cam Schlittler looks like. If you don’t know the name “Carlos Lagrange” yet, now’s the time.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Leitch: Yes, yes, they’re older, so are you, so am I, so is everyone, save maybe Paul Rudd. The Phillies are still pretty stacked, and they actually addressed some of their issues last year, improving both defense and vibes by cutting Nick Castellanos loose and giving center field (probably) to Justin Crawford. (And I’m on the Bryce Harper Bounceback Season bandwagon.)
But once Zack Wheeler returns – and it’s looking like it’s happening earlier rather than later – this rotation is the class of the division and, more to the point, as potentially terrifying in the postseason as ever. (Particularly if Andrew Painter becomes a weapon.) Looking around the National League, it’s very difficult to find a way that they don’t make the postseason. What happens after that will, once again, be all that matters.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Petriello: They did come within millimeters of winning the World Series, after all, and I do think they’ll be thrilled with what they get out of Dylan Cease. Here’s what I know about this team: The defense will be really good, the vibes are immaculate, and I think either Daulton Varsho and/or Addison Barger has a true star-level season in them.
Here’s what I don’t know: If Kazuma Okamoto can play third, if 36-year-old George Springer looks more like he did in 2025 than he did from 2023-24, what to expect from Shane Bieber, José Berríos and Max Scherzer, and if Trey Yesavage – still, somehow, rookie-eligible! – has set expectations so high that it’s simply not possible to match them. I fully believe this team is going to be really, really good. I mostly just wonder if the power of friendship culture that was so obvious early last season can work again with some notable ins and outs on the roster.
8. Detroit Tigers
Leitch: Not that it was all that high a bar to clear, but they were easily the most aggressive team in this division this offseason, which was particularly encouraging after a whole year of Tarik Skubal trade rumors. Now that they’ve got Skubal and Framber Valdez (and Justin Verlander!) atop the rotation, they can be patient with their young hitters. For example, waiting on Kevin McGonigle if they need to because of the slack those starters provide.
And once you’re in October – and it’s about time for the Tigers to win the division for the first time since … 2014? Those pitchers, if healthy, will be terrifying. I don’t think they’re the eighth-best team in baseball over a whole season. But in a short series? Against those guys? No thanks.
9. Boston Red Sox
Petriello: It’s good strategy to pick three teams from the same beastly AL East in the first nine picks, right? Right? Surely that doesn’t narrow my odds of finding teams to win it all? So there’s that, but there’s also this: The Red Sox may have the best rotation in baseball, Roman Anthony was already everyone’s “massive superstar turn incoming” pick even before his World Baseball Classic power show, and Garrett Whitlock / Aroldis Chapman are up there for “best 1-2 bullpen duos in the game.”
Sure, I don’t love their infield either, for the most part. But when your biggest problem just might be, “We have too many good outfielders and we don’t know how we’ll find playing time for all of them,” well, that’s hardly a problem at all.
10. Baltimore Orioles
Leitch: You know what’s an even better strategy? Picking the fourth team next. In my forthcoming season predictions piece for MLB.com, I picked the Orioles second behind the Yankees, and if I had more courage, I’d have put them first. Sure, they never did get that ace their fans wanted, but Trevor Rogers has been close, and they’ve got more depth there than they’ve had in the past.
But more to the point: There’s still just so much young hitting here, and while development isn’t linear, with talent at this level, it does eventually, well, develop. The upside here is huge, and the front office knows it has to make things happen right now. I think the 2026 Orioles will. They’re my bandwagon team!
11. Kansas City Royals
Petriello: I know Milwaukee is still on the board. I don’t think the Royals are a better team than the Brewers. But – as I’ll get to should you let me pick Milwaukee, Will – while I do think the Brewers are more likely than Kansas City to get to the playoffs, I also think that in October, I need some Big Dude Superstars, and there’s a better chance the Royals might have more of that right now.
There's Bobby Witt Jr., obviously, but also Maikel Garcia, and please do not give up on Jac Caglianone yet. You also may fully and completely ignore Cole Ragans’ 4.67 ERA last season, because absolutely every sign points to a monster 2026, akin to what he showed two years ago.
12. Atlanta Braves
Leitch: Yeah, so things are not really going great right now. They’re almost out of pitchers already. The Jurickson Profar signing is, uh, not working out. Dominic Smith is an oddly important part of this offense! So why do I have them so high? Well, at the risk of being an analytical heretic, this team is seriously due for some things to go its way.
The Braves are due for Ronald Acuña Jr. to have a fully healthy, monster year, for Michael Harris II to be the player he once seemed to be (and was for a while last year), for that lineup to at last be healthy together all year. It’s probably not all going to click the way it needs to. But if it does, they’re not that far from the team we thought would be dominating this division every year.
13. Milwaukee Brewers
Petriello: An absolute steal at 13. The Brewers are clearly a better choice than Atlanta! They’re better than the Royals, too, but I went with Kansas City for reasons noted above. They’re the three-time defending NL Central champions, and even though they went and traded away their best pitcher (Freddy Peralta) and made a confusing trade no one quite understood (the whole Caleb Durbin deal), none of that is out of step with what they do every winter, and it always seems to work. It’s going to work this year, too. They’re going to be really good.
And yet, 13th? Well behind the Cubs? Here’s why: This is a draft of potential World Series champs. Milwaukee has made the playoffs seven times in the last eight years, because they’re always very good and competitive. Yet there’s been no World Series appearances in that time, and they haven’t even won an NLCS game since 2018. It’s not that what they do doesn’t work, because it surely does. It’s that after all this time, we need to see some evidence that what they do can actually get you all the way to the top.
14. San Francisco Giants
Leitch: There are two teams I have making the playoffs in my final predictions that haven’t been picked yet. This is the first one, so I better take them. (And I regret not taking the Brewers, for what it’s worth.) I’m not taking the Giants this high because of their new manager, even though if they make the playoffs, Tony Vitello is going to have exactly as many NL Manager of the Year Awards as he has SEC Coach of the Year Awards. (One.) And I’m not really sold on Luis Arraez atop that lineup, either.
But I do think there are Wild Card spots to be had in the NL, and I kind of like the way this pitching and this defense work together. (Harrison Bader will cover a lot of ground in that ballpark.) I wonder if having a normal offseason to settle in with his new team will do wonders for Rafael Devers. Logan Webb is criminally underrated. If the Giants can sneak into a playoff spot, this team’s quirky enough to cause some problems.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
Petriello: We’re picking potential World Series champs, not just “decent seasons,” right? The Pirates are full of holes, and the likeliest outcome is another 80-ish-win season that leaves them out of the playoffs. But if this goes right – and by “right” I mean that Paul Skenes is Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin is Peak Bobby Witt Jr. from day one – then the very small chance that this team makes the playoffs means that if they actually do it, they’ll be ascending upon a rocket ship, powered by two of the best players alive.
I get that this is wildly (wildly!) unfair to place on the 19-year-old Griffin, and there’s probably something to be said for adding Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna to a dreadful offense, but none of that will be what makes the difference here. Top-flight superstars will. No pressure, rook.
16. Texas Rangers
Leitch: This feels like the last stand for the Rangers, which is strange considering they have a well-regarded new manager and didn’t really act this offseason like a team that’s getting as old as it is. It’s the young guys in whom I have faith. I wonder if MacKenzie Gore will benefit from having two established guys above him like Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. I wonder if we’re quitting on Evan Carter too quickly. I wonder if Wyatt Langford is an All-Star this year. I’m not sure what happens if they finish at .500 again, or even below. But I bet there are going to be wins to be had in this division.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks
Petriello: I keep looking at this lineup and thinking, “There is no way a team with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo won’t be good.” Maybe I’m choosing to believe it was the 80-82 campaign they just had that’s the fluke, not the run to the World Series in 2023 and the 89-win follow-up. Also, though, no one really had a good reason why Zac Gallen wasn’t as good last year (he’s back), and Merrill Kelly seemingly couldn’t wait to come back, and .. oh wow, Nolan Arenado’s there now? That’s fun. The bullpen is ranked 28th, and it’s getting increasingly difficult to name a non-Carroll outfielder? OK, that’s less fun. That’s what you get at 17th, though – and for what it’s worth, Carroll is already back in games after suffering an early-spring hand injury.
18. Athletics
Leitch: Every half-inning, the A’s are going to look like one of the best 10 teams in baseball because of their young hitters. Nick Kurtz may fall back to Earth a little (but what if he doesn’t???), while Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, and Lawrence Butler (who was a full-on star two years ago and is still only 25) help make this lineup a terror top to bottom. Now, in the other half-inning, well, they are very much not a top-10 team. But if they can even get close to a slightly-below-average pitching staff, they can threaten for a Wild Card. No matter what happens, they will be the most fun whenever they're up to bat.
19. San Diego Padres
Petriello: Right here is a great example of how this is a forward-looking thing, because otherwise we’re looking at a team that won 90 and 93 games the last two seasons, making the playoffs each time. I’m actually optimistic that the lineup will offer more than last year’s relatively punchless unit did, because I think Jackson Merrill is a fairly good bet to improve, and I will forever believe Fernando Tatis Jr. can get back to a superstar-level bat. I also like a full season of Ramón Laureano in what could be a good outfield.
My concern then, should be obvious: the rotation. I know San Diego fans didn’t love Cease, but he’s something like the most durable starter in the game right now, and without him, this team absolutely requires healthy, productive seasons from Joe Musgrove, Michael King, and some combination of veterans like Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez or Griffin Canning.
Are we off to a good start there?
We are not. I’m not optimistic – though a full season of Mason Miller at the back end could cure a lot of ills.
20. Houston Astros
Leitch: I’m down on the Astros. You’re down on the Astros. Everyone’s down on the Astros. It’s not difficult to see why. What’s the Hemingway line? How did you go broke? Gradually, and then suddenly. That’s what it has felt like to watch the Astros since that 2022 title. A little worse … a little worse … and then the bottom falls out. There’s still plenty here – a full season of Yordan Alvarez (hopefully), Hunter Brown – but everyone looks too old and too mismatched. This year may not turn out well. But it may be the best one they have for a while.
21. Cleveland Guardians.
Petriello: Oh no, I can’t believe I let them fall this far. You say disrespect. I say: Value pick. Actually, both things can be true. This is disrespect, to be sure. How could it not be? This team has won the AL Central in three of the last four years, and exactly zero of those times did anyone make them the favorite entering the year. And yet: the lineup outscored only Colorado and Pittsburgh last year, adding little this winter, and “won the division” does sort of obscure that they required an absolutely massive Detroit meltdown along the way. (The news that José Ramírez has a mild shoulder situation is absolutely terrifying, basically, even if it’s not serious.)
It’s not hard to see them making us all look very bad yet again, because they’ve more than earned the benefit of the doubt at this point. It’s also not hard to see what happens when the balls don’t find grass, because we saw it in 2023: 76-86. That team scored 19 more runs than last season’s did.
22. Tampa Bay Rays
Leitch: If they weren’t in the AL East, how high would they have gone? I’d guess 14th. The problem is that they are in that division, which had four of our top 10 picks. All those wins we apparently have projected for those four teams have to come from somewhere, and this is a logical spot for them. Junior Caminero is exciting, obviously, but the rest of that offense looks awfully thin. This is a team that is counting on guys like Cedric Mullins and Steven Matz to turn back the clock.
23. Miami Marlins
Petriello: I’ve been on the record a few times this winter as saying that I find the 2026 Marlins a particularly interesting team. Why? They’re finally leaning into their destiny of being weird, experimenting with dugout pitch-calling, changing the way Minor League development works, and generally having some “well, you didn’t see the 2025 Blue Jays coming either, did you?” vibes about them. I might be very much the high man on a group that is projected by the industry to be something like a 75-87 team. I think they’re better than that. I think there’s a better chance they’re in the NL East race than most people would expect. I … also don’t think they’re particularly likely to win the World Series, either.
24. Cincinnati Reds
Leitch: The Reds were in the playoffs last year! Do you remember that? Their second postseason appearance in a decade was over quickly, and they still have not actually won a playoff game since that heartbreaking NLDS loss to the Giants back in 2012. (Their last home postseason win? 1995. Frank Viola was on that team!)
To see them this low after something of a breakthrough season is probably a result of the thoroughly depressing news about Hunter Greene. With him, this team was an intriguing rotation and … Elly De La Cruz. Now that rotation has taken a big hit. We all still believe De La Cruz is going to win an MVP Award someday, but he might have to do it this year to get the Reds over the hump.
25. St. Louis Cardinals
Petriello: Hey, at least there’s a plan. It probably won’t lead to a terribly successful 2026 season, but that’s also not really the point, not after three straight seasons out of the playoffs made it clear that the organization had fallen behind. New baseball boss Chaim Bloom has put a lot of work into overhauling the organization and the roster, and while I think there’s a pretty strong chance of a last-place finish in 2026, I also don’t think this rebuild is going to take that long. Still: No, they’re not going to win the World Series this year.
26. Chicago White Sox
Leitch: I don’t know if they’re going to be better than the Twins. (They might be!) But they’re certainly going to be more interesting. I will be watching every Munetaka Murakami at-bat. Colson Montgomery is a player to build around, and I’m fascinated by Chase Meidroth and Korey Lee, too. The whole organization appears to have gone through the worst of the rebuild. Things are trending upward now. They’ve even got the Pope on their side! They’re not going to make the playoffs. But they’re not losing 100 games again, either. Maybe not for a long time.
27. Minnesota Twins
Petriello: The 2023 Twins won 87 games, and the 2024 Twins won 82 games, and the 2025 Twins won 70 games, and while you can’t simply assume trends are linear, you can also see the direction here. The more pertinent issue right now is how they get themselves back headed in the right direction, as the departure of longtime baseball boss Derek Falvey just before spring simply raised more questions. I’d have been more optimistic about their rotation, which might have been pretty solid, before ace Pablo López was headed for Tommy John surgery.
28. Washington Nationals
Leitch: This is an organization that just needs to figure things out: What the plan is, what they want to be, who they want to be a part of it. They’ve got some young guys in charge who will have some time to do just that. But this entire starting lineup is full of guys in their 20s, and yet I’m not really sure which of them are going to be a part of the next good Nationals team. Or, if they are, when that time will arrive.
29. Colorado Rockies
Petriello: I'm breaking the rules here, I think. Colorado isn't more likely to win the World Series this year than the Angels, whom I've forced Will to select. But for the first time in seemingly forever, finally the feeling here is different, and different is the best possible thing for a team infamously stuck in its ways. There are quick modernization wins they can achieve immediately – you’ll be able to see progress even if it’s still another 100-loss season. More likely to win it all than the Angels this year? No chance. Over the next five or 10? Yes, I think? Imagine that. It’s been a long time since this franchise was this interesting.
30. Los Angeles Angels
Leitch: I refuse to let thinking about Mike Trout ever make me sad. He’s one of my favorite players ever, and if you weren’t around to see him at his absolute peak, it is your loss. Unfortunately, Trout is no longer near that peak -- though we can always hope for a revival -- and it's continued to be a struggle to put enough solid pieces around him.