3 free-agent targets that make sense for Crew

December 2nd, 2022

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Welcome back to the Winter Meetings after two years away.

MLB.com and the rest of the baseball world will gather next week for the first time since December 2019, when the Brewers were active on the free-agent front. In the two weeks spanning those meetings (which were also in San Diego) and the following week (since it takes time to complete physical exams), the Brewers re-signed reliever Alex Claudio after non-tendering him and added free agents Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Avisaíl García, Ryon Healy, Jace Peterson, Justin Smoak and Eric Sogard, all in the span of 12 days.

Did all of those deals work out? To the contrary, most of them failed. But that doesn’t mean general manager Matt Arnold has to stand pat in his first Winter Meetings as head of the Brewers’ baseball operation.

Here are three of the many free agents who could fit the budget and help the team.

The top catcher on the market is Willson Contreras, but considering that Yasmani Grandal’s four-year, $73 million contract sets the floor here, and that the Brewers let Grandal walk in the fall of 2019 over the length of that commitment, it’s difficult to see them stretching for Contreras. Still, one can see the need for a frontline catcher after Omar Narváez entered free agency -- unless the Brewers want to pair switch-hitting Victor Caratini with some combination of Mario Feliciano, Payton Henry and Alex Jackson. A couple of years ago, Feliciano appeared on a trajectory to take this job by now. The Brewers haven’t seemed inclined to give it to him.

Vázquez, 32, comes with sure defense (including just better than average pitch framing by Statcast’s measure) and enough offense to justify an investment. His calling card is contact; Vázquez’s 5.2 percent walk rate and 16.2 percent strikeout rate are both on the low end. Trouble is, a number of teams are in the market for a catcher, starting with the rival Cardinals. Don’t rule out a reunion with Narváez.

The Brewers went into last season with five good starters; six if you were bullish on budding lefty Aaron Ashby. Ethan Small also appeared ready to make the jump. And yet, Jason Alexander, a relatively off-the-radar right-hander who deserves credit for answering the call every time it came, wound up making 11 starts. That’s not ideal. It also was a reminder that there’s no such thing as too many starting pitchers.

The Brewers aren’t among the suitors for top starters like Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom, but there are arms in the next tier who could help, including, in random order, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Ross Stripling, José Quintana and more. How about joining the list of teams to take a flier on 31-year-old lefty Heaney? He has a long injury history and trouble with the longball, but also possesses some of the best stuff of any pitcher on the market, making him a darling of analytically minded teams. That’s why clubs keep running Heaney out there, and why he posted a career-best 35.5 percent strikeout rate for the Dodgers last season (in only 72 2/3 innings).

The Brewers can’t afford to whiff on free-agent signings, so it would have to be a shorter-term deal at the right price, and they would have to cross their collective fingers that this is the year Heaney finally clicks. But given Milwaukee’s reputation in the industry for handling pitchers, and its history of moving arms in and out of the rotation and various relief roles, Heaney’s plus stuff has the potential to boost a staff that could use innings in the rotation and the bullpen.

Hear me out. Rogers was forced into a tough spot after arriving in Milwaukee last August, replacing a popular player (Josh Hader) in an unpopular trade. And like that whole series of moves at the Trade Deadline, this one didn’t work out for the Brewers. Rogers had a 5.48 ERA in 23 post-trade innings and walked hitters at nearly twice the rate as he did during the first half in San Diego, when he was already faltering after a sensational start to the season.

But it’s worth looking at Rogers’ history as one of baseball’s most reliable relievers since 2016, and looking a little deeper at his rough late-season numbers with an open mind. Rogers’ WHIP with the Brewers (1.30) was up, but not to an alarming level. His strikeout rate with the Brewers was elite (30.7 percent). And while his velocity came down, it didn’t plummet to the point of raising red flags.

Instead, Rogers’ issue was simple: He started serving up home runs. Lots of them. He gave up six homers with the Brewers, including four in one critical stretch of eight appearances in early- and mid-September.

I don’t know if either side wants to give it a go again, but the bullpen is the Brewers’ biggest area of need going into the Winter Meetings, and Rogers is one of the best options among the free agents with closing experience. Milwaukee has openings in that area after seeing Rogers, Brad Boxberger, Brent Suter and others -- including, of course, Hader -- depart.