ST. LOUIS -- The offseason is about to officially kick off once the World Series ends this week, and the Cardinals will begin their plans to attack free agency, trades and roster shaping.
Let’s look at a few of those things in this week’s Inbox:
What is the likelihood of Dylan Carlson making his MLB debut in 2020?
--Hunter, St. Louis
The Cardinals are opening the competition for Carlson to hit his way into the Majors, and if he performs like he did in the Minors last year, it’s very likely you’ll see him at Busch Stadium in ‘20. The Cardinals’ No. 1 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, headlines a group of outfielders who will be able to make a play for a starting spot -- likely center field -- next year, including the incumbent Harrison Bader as well as Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Justin Williams and Tyler O'Neill.
The switch-hitting Carlson was the Texas League Player of the Year with Double-A Springfield last year but keeping him off the 40-man roster leaves a spot open for any players the Cardinals need to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. Carlson will be a non-roster invite to Spring Training, and if he impresses, there’s a good chance he could be on the Opening Day roster. If one of the other challengers emerges, Carlson would likely begin the year at Triple-A Memphis and prepare for a callup at some point during the season.
Tommy Edman was primarily a second baseman with some history at shortstop when he was with Triple-A Memphis at the beginning of last year, but he has logged more games at shortstop (234) than second (82) in his Minors career. We never really received a clear answer as to why Edman didn’t play shortstop in the Majors this season; he played almost every other position, despite playing in the outfield just twice before his callup.
The Cardinals wanted to get Edman’s bat in the lineup without sacrificing Paul DeJong’s bat -- the one that hit 30 home runs this year -- or glove. But DeJong played 159 games last year, and that workload could have been a reason for his .202 post-All Star break average and an on-base percentage that dipped from .343 in the first half to .285 in the second half. DeJong had never played that deep into a season at such a demanding position. Yairo Muñoz was technically the backup shortstop, but he played more games at third base and in the outfield than at shortstop.
Figuring out Edman’s role for ‘20 should be on the Cardinals’ to-do list. If they reposition him as a utility player, one that plays a different position every day, he could give DeJong at least a few more days off, perhaps spurring some consistency. It would also allow the Cardinals to find room for his bat in the lineup regularly, while still allowing them to pursue a big bat this offseason -- which they need to do.
Mike is right that the Cardinals would certainly fit as a candidate for Mookie Betts. They’ll likely explore that avenue if it becomes available, but it’s more likely that their targets will be in a different price range. As Mike wrote, players like Betts don’t appear on the market very often because teams usually keep them.
Betts would absolutely boost the outfield and add the big bat the Cardinals need in their lineup, especially if Marcell Ozuna leaves. But if the Red Sox do explore trade offers, it’s going to take a lot to get Betts, both with prospects and salary considerations. The Cardinals have an abundance of outfielders, but none that would be comparable to what Betts brings.
Carlson and/or No. 2 prospect Nolan Gorman, along with some other prospects or Major League players, might be the ask in this scenario, and the Cardinals weren’t ready to part with either of them at the Trade Deadline last year. They won’t be ready this winter, either.
Jordan Hicks had Tommy John surgery in June, and the recovery time for a full UCL reconstruction is about 12-13 months. That puts the Cardinals’ fireballer at about the All-Star break for a ’20 return, although it will depend on how he feels when he starts throwing. Assuming Hicks will be able to pitch in the second half, the Cardinals will need a closer for the first half.
Who that could be will depend on a few factors. The first is if Carlos Martínez becomes a starter in ‘20. The right-hander took over for Hicks as the closer and had 24 saves in 2019, but he has consistently said that he wants to get back to starting. Martínez’s shoulder prevented him from doing so last year, but the Cardinals are open to having him work back to a starter’s routine and workload. If he’s able to do that by Spring Training, he’ll be competing for a rotation spot. If not, he’ll likely be back in the bullpen as the closer until Hicks returns.
Let’s say Martínez does return to the rotation. Who could close then? Andrew Miller has some experience there, although the Cardinals might elect to keep him available for the seventh or eighth innings and for certain spots in the opposing lineup. Giovanny Gallegos had a breakout year, with a 2.31 ERA, and was excellent in setup situations. Rookie Ryan Helsley also impressed in the bullpen this year, and even though his background was starting, he has the velocity and power to continue relieving. In 5 1/3 innings in the postseason, Helsley allowed just one hit and struck out eight.
Rule 5 Draft targets will become clearer when teams start to shape their rosters after the World Series ends. Rosters need to be set by Nov. 20; subsequently, this is the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. Once that happens, the Cardinals will look at potential targets on Dec. 12.
As far as who the Cardinals need to protect on their roster, there are three prospects in the Cardinals’ Top 30, according to MLB Pipeline, that are Rule 5 eligible: Third baseman Elehuris Montero (No. 4), pitcher Jake Woodford (No. 13) and infielder Max Schrock (No. 30). Right-handed pitcher Connor Jones is also eligible. The Cardinals won’t move all their eligible players onto the 40-man, but I suspect Montero and Woodford are priorities.