Cards' approach to Deadline: 'We are in this'

July 29th, 2019

ST. LOUIS -- It’s Trade Deadline week, and the Cardinals expect to be busy. The question is: Busy doing what?

After winning 12 of 17 coming out of the All-Star break, the Cardinals (56-49) are tied with the Cubs for first place in the National League Central. The feeling is growing that the Cards are making a push for the playoffs after missing the postseason for three straight years. And acquiring a player or two at the Deadline could be a big spark.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told MLB.com on Sunday that the Cardinals are “really looking to see if there’s something we can inject into our current 25-man that gives us that stronger two months.”

Let’s examine what that could look like and what moves the Cardinals might make in the next 48 hours.

First, the basics

If a team wants to acquire a player outside the organization, it must do so before 3 p.m. CT Wednesday, the one and only Trade Deadline this year, as the August “waiver trade” period was abolished this past offseason.

That new rule is changing how teams go about trades. Front offices are determining if their teams are in the playoff race or out, if they are buyers or sellers. Until their recent surge, the Cardinals weren’t sure what they were going to do.

“For us, we went from basically sub .500 to above and feeling like, ‘OK, we are in this,’” Mozeliak said. “In the last two weeks, you’ve had a lot of people change what they said two weeks ago.

“In the past, you knew there would be that feverish 48 hours, 24 hours, but you knew it wasn’t over. Now, I’m assuming come Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, it’s going to be a very busy time. Not saying there will be an enormous amount of deals done, but everybody is going to be exploring a lot of different things. These past few days, you definitely feel more discussion is happening. But I do think that when you look at the landscape, there are still teams that aren’t sure what they’re going to do.”

What are the Cardinals in the market for?

Pitching, both starting and relief help. The Cardinals could benefit from a frontline starter who can consistently go deep into games. The fifth rotation spot has been inconsistent all season, and it could be filled with a starter such as Mets right-handers or , Rangers left-hander or D-backs left-hander . None of them will come cheap. Wheeler will be a free agent after the season, while Minor is signed through 2020 at $9.83 million, and Syndergaard and Ray are under team control beyond 2020.

Mozeliak said his inclination is to go after a left-handed reliever to add to and in the bullpen, but he’s not drawing a line in the sand one way or the other. If the Giants end up holding onto left-hander , the Cardinals have also been linked to left-hander .

“I would say I think going into it, the approach may be a bit different than last year,” Mozeliak said. “There was having some clarity on our 40-man last year, this year I don’t think we’re forced to have to think like that as much. As you focus on the next two months, what do we think we need to do to maintain or continue to get better? Every year we ask ourselves that question, and obviously there are things that have been identified. Whether you say buyer, seller, the Cardinals are always looking to improve."

What prospects could they offer?

The issue with going after those big-name starters in an already thin market is whether the Cardinals have enough high-end talent to get the deal done -- and if they do, whether they’re willing to part with it. It’s safe to say Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson, the club’s top two prospects, are staying put unless the Cardinals aggressively go after a coveted player like Syndergaard. But the rest of the farm system might be fair game.

The Cardinals have depth in young arms in the lower rungs of the Minors. Johan Oviedo, the club’s No. 14 prospect, is 10-4 and a 4.22 ERA in 22 games (21 starts) with Double-A Springfield. With more than a few scouts watching his start Saturday, Oviedo allowed one run in seven innings, striking out 11 with no walks. Junior Fernandez has soared through the Minors this year with a 1.26 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 38 games (57 innings). The right-hander hasn’t allowed an earned run this month with Triple-A Memphis.

There’s also a surplus of outfielders in the farm system. The club’s No. 12 prospect, Randy Arozarena, is hitting .346 with Springfield and Memphis this season, and on Friday, he hit for the cycle with the Redbirds. Lane Thomas, the Cardinals’ No. 9 prospect, is heating up in Memphis and had a three-homer night Saturday.

The difference between dealing top prospects like Gorman and Carlson instead of prospects who are not in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 -- like Arozarena, Oviedo, Fernandez and Thomas -- might be the difference between landing a quality starter vs. a useful reliever. If the Cardinals are all in this year and want that frontline starter, a top prospect or two will likely have to go.

What if the Cardinals don’t acquire a starter?

If there’s no outside help inserted into the rotation, the Cardinals will have to find an internal solution. That has been difficult this year, with Michael Wacha moving to the bullpen on two separate occasions. Daniel Ponce de Leon took over after the All-Star break and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in his past three starts.

With off-days Monday and Friday this week, there’s a possibility for the Cardinals to roll with a four-man rotation until Aug. 7 against the Dodgers. The club is still discussing various options, but Wacha, after relieving Ponce de Leon and allowing one run in 4 2/3 innings Saturday against the Astros, would return to the rotation when a fifth starter spot is needed.

How does Alex Reyes fit in?

If the Cardinals don’t acquire a starter at the Deadline, don’t count on Reyes to fill that spot. St. Louis’ prized right-hander has faced setback after setback this year, and he’s currently on the injured list in Memphis with a right pectoral strain. Mozeliak said Reyes is scheduled to throw off the mound early next week. If all goes well, there’s a chance Reyes could make it back to St. Louis this year, but it would be in the bullpen, given the clock.

The same goes for Austin Gomber (biceps/shoulder), who is scheduled to start his throwing program next week. There is a chance he could be ready by September for the Cardinals, but his rehab is going to take some time.