The new year is for new starts, the unknown and the to-be-determined. No one can perfectly say what will happen in this 2026 calendar year, but we can certainly take a few highly educated guesses.
In the land of Minor League Baseball, there may not be a more sought-after prediction than who the next batch of breakout prospects will be. Breakouts can come in many forms. Some previously little-known young talents will surge into their organization’s Top 30 lists. Some in the Top 30 lists will become closer to household names by achieving Top 100 status. Injured players can show us their true skillsets once fully healthy.
Keeping all of that in mind, here is one breakout prospect candidate from each farm system for 2026:
Jump to: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Blue Jays: Juan Sanchez, 3B/SS (No. 18)
Signed for $997,500 in January, Sanchez has arguably already broken out with a .341/.439/.565 line and eight homers in 56 games last summer in the Dominican Summer League. His right-handed power already plays out of his 6-foot-3 frame, and there could be more coming as he continues to fill out. Toronto officials who saw him in the D.R. came away believing Sanchez can be the real deal due to his exciting exit velocities, and carrying that slugging output stateside over a larger sample will send him shooting up the Toronto rankings.
Orioles: Luis De León, LHP (No. 18)
De León was one of the best hurlers in all of the Minors down the stretch in 2025, spinning a 1.47 ERA over his final seven starts while striking out 14.5 K/9. The 22-year-old followed that up with an impressive five-outing stint in the Arizona Fall League (2.76 ERA, 22 K’s in 16 1/3 innings), where his sinker was clocked as high as 98.5 mph. After watching a pair of fellow Orioles pitching prospects break out last year in Braxton Bragg (No. 12) and Michael Forret (dealt to Tampa Bay in the Shane Baz deal), De León has the stuff with a high-octane three-pitch mix -- and mound moxie to boot -- to enjoy a similar rise in ‘26.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
Rays: Nathan Flewelling, C (No. 30)
Tampa Bay has liked the Canadian backstop since it selected him in the third round in 2024, and the organization backed that up by giving him 461 plate appearances between Single-A and High-A, the second-most of any catcher aged 18 or younger in 2025. Flewelling’s surface numbers don’t necessarily pop (.230/.393/.341, six homers) outside of the OBP, but his contact was generally loud enough for his age that more eye-popping stats shouldn’t be far behind, if he continues along this trajectory. Flewelling will still only be 19 for the duration of the 2026 campaign.
Red Sox: Dorian Soto, SS (No. 9)
Soto landed a $1.4 million bonus as the eighth-ranked prospect in the 2025 international class as a switch-hitting shortstop with an athletic build and elite work ethic. The Dominican native was better from the left side in his debut season, partly because of a wrist injury that affected his right-handed swing more, but he projects to hit for power from both sides of the plate. Soto has a chance to make it to Single-A by the end of 2026 with a strong season and his stock could soar if he remains nimble at short -- although his bat should profile at third base if not.
Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS (No. 7)
It's rare for a player to reach Single-A the same year they're drafted out of high school, and it's even rarer for them to thrive. The Georgia native was one of the most advanced high school bats in the 2025 class and showed as much when he slashed .353/.457/.441 in 18 games with more walks (13) than strikeouts (11). Kilby stands out both for his excellent swing decisions and powerful, short swing, and he could jump into the Top 100 if he answers questions about his fringy infield defense.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Guardians: Juneiker Caceres, OF (No. 13)
Caceres isn't overly physical and will likely be a corner outfielder long term, but his best tool is the most important one (hit). The Venezuela native's uncanny knack for finding the barrel is made even better by his propensity for putting the ball in the air, which should enable him to maximize his power, especially if he's able to pull the ball more. After thriving at two Rookie-ball levels, Caceres made it to Single-A as a 17-year-old and held his own with a 103 wRC+, and he'll be one of the youngest players at the level again in 2026.
Royals: Warren Calcaño, SS (No. 17)
Right-hander Kendry Chourio was the big breakout of 2025 for Kansas City, but Calcaño was actually the club’s largest international signee with a bonus of $1,847,500. He lasted only nine games in the DSL, going 9-for-26 (.346) with a homer and eight walks, before injuring his shoulder in a freak collision. Calcaño should be healthier for his age-18 season in ‘26. He’s already considered a gifted defender at shortstop and was in the midst of proving he had an advanced approach as a switch-hitter. A larger, healthier sample could make him one of the more exciting prospects in the Royals system.
Tigers: Kelvis Salcedo, RHP (No. 29)
After repeating the DSL in 2023 and 2024, Salcedo took off in the Florida Complex and State Leagues with a 1.83 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 68 2/3 innings this season. He may just be getting started. His mid-90s fastball could be an above-average pitch, while his upper-80s slider -- a real dropper with good velo -- gets impressive whiff rates. He’s gotten even better at limiting walks as he climbs with only six walks in 23 1/3 innings at Single-A Lakeland, and if that trend holds, he’ll be a bigger name as he looks to eclipse the 70-frame mark for the first time as a pro.
Twins: Khadim Diaw, C (No. 21)
Diaw made history as the first player of Senegalese descent to be selected in the MLB Draft when the Twins nabbed him in the third round in 2024. When healthy, the Loyola Marymount product has posted a .422 on-base percentage in 66 career Minor League games and a 161 wRC+ last year between Single-A Fort Myers and High-A Cedar Rapids. But it’s been staying on the field that’s proven difficult. Beset by a pair of fractures to his left thumb along with wrist and hamstring injuries, Diaw is looking to use his age-22 campaign as a springboard up the organizational ladder. There’s long been some belief that a shift to the outfield could free up his bat (while simultaneously reducing some defensive wear and tear), with the 2025 Trade Deadline acquisition of catcher Eduardo Tait (MIN No. 3/MLB No. 57) potentially facilitating such a move.
White Sox: George Wolkow, OF (No. 10)
Few players in the Minors have as big of a difference between their ceiling and floor as Wolkow. The 6-foot-7 slugger has near-top-of-the-line raw power but hasn't yet been able to tap into it because of swing-and-miss and chase issues. The good news is he cut his K rate from an untenable 40.3 percent in 2024 to a still-high 29.6 percent in 2025. Further improvement, especially against breaking balls, could enable him to reach that long-awaited breakout.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Angels: Gabriel Davalillo, C (No. 11)
The Halos ponied up $2 million to land Davalillo, the top-ranked catching prospect in the 2025 international class, when the signing period opened. He proceeded to slash .302/.408/.518 with seven homers, 31 RBIs and more walks (23) than strikeouts (21) across 41 contests in the Dominican Summer League, all while putting 48.3 percent of his balls in play to the opposite field, backing up his reputation as an advanced hitter. Whether the Venezuela native sticks behind the plate remains to be seen, but the Angels have certainly never shown hesitancy to challenge their top prospects and Davalillo is positioned to see just how prescient those Francisco Alvarez comps are as he enters his potential first full season of pro ball at just 18 years old.
Astros: Ryan Forcucci, RHP (No. 8)
Forcucci was getting first-round buzz at UC San Diego before Tommy John surgery derailed his junior season. Still, the Astros pounced in the third round of the 2024 Draft and are eagerly awaiting his pro debut. The 6-foot-3 righty has two main weapons that generate plenty of whiffs in a fastball that benefits from a low release height and excellent carry and a tight, mid-80s slider. It will be key to see how his stuff returns as he builds back up and if he can develop his changeup or curve into a strong third pitch.
A’s: Shotaro Morii, SS/RHP (No. 21)
Morii was something of a shock signee as the 2025 international signing period opened, forgoing a chance to be a Top 10 selection in the NPB Draft in his native Japan in deference to jumping straight to pro ball in the States. The A’s believe in Morii’s two-way abilities, though they sent him out as a hitter only in his debut campaign this past year, when he logged a .399 OBP and .783 OPS in 43 Arizona Complex League contests. The highest-paid Japanese amateur to make the jump stateside has a smooth left-handed stroke and a cannon of a throwing arm that leads to evaluators believing his long-term home is shortstop, but a four-pitch mix on the bump gives him another pathway to breaking out in ‘26 and beyond as he continues to hone his all-around repertoire.
Mariners: Yorger Bautista, OF (No. 10)
They don’t nickname just anyone “La Bestia” (The Beast). Bautista boasts as loud of a set of tools as anyone in the Mariners system since Julio Rodríguez, all of which helped him to land at No. 6 on the 2025 international prospects list. Bautista will need to trim down the swing-and-miss (29.8 percent K rate) in the long run, but his first taste of pro ball as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League saw him slug seven home runs and wallop 41.9 percent of his hits for extra bases. The Venezuela native is one of just two ranked prospects to have at least a 60 grade on his power, run and throwing arm tools -- a class in which he’s joined only by MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect, Konnor Griffin.
Rangers: Yolfran Castillo, SS/3B (No. 13)
Strong shortstop defense out of a 6-foot-3 frame and impressive plate discipline give Castillo a high floor for an 18-year-old who just reached Single-A. If he's able to add more power as he matures -- and there's plenty of room to fill out -- his value could really take off. Currently, he has a contact-oriented approach, and only one of his 22 extra-base hits in 2025 was a home run. His exit velocities are improving over time, giving hope that he can be an impact offensive player.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Braves: Owen Murphy, RHP (No. 8)
Through seven starts at High-A in 2024, Murphy accumulated 60 strikeouts in 41 innings, held opposing batters to a .129 average and notched a 1.54 ERA. Atlanta’s first-round pick in the 2022 Draft was staring down the Top 100 overall prospects list until his elbow gave out and he underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned this past July and looked much like the same dominant hurler across seven outings, posting a 1.19 ERA while showcasing a tremendously repeatable delivery and a slider with significant bite, enhancing his overall arsenal. In a system suddenly flush with pitching prospects (nine of Atlanta’s top 12 ply their trade on the bump), Murphy may have the highest ceiling of all, something he’ll look to prove as he takes on the upper levels of the Minors for the first time in 2026.
Marlins: Kevin Defrank, RHP (No. 8)
After earning one of the largest bonuses for a pitcher in the 2025 international class, Defrank is already living up to the hype. The Dominican native is quite imposing between his massive 6-foot-5 build and fastball velocity that touches triple digits. His sinking changeup already looks like a plus offering -- rare for someone his age -- and his sweeping slider has promise. Defrank will be 17 for most of the season and should pitch stateside at some point in 2026. His top-of-the-rotation potential makes him one of the most exciting pitching prospects in any organization.
Mets: Peter Kussow, RHP (No. 27)
The Mets had one of the best pitching development departments in 2025 -- their hurlers led the full-season Minors in strikeouts and K percentage -- and the first arm the organization took was the 6-foot-5 Kussow out of a Wisconsin high school. The former Louisville commit’s size gives the club plenty to dream on, as does a fastball that already touches 97 mph, but his high-spin slider got the biggest raves from Mets evaluators. A full offseason and spring of pro instruction and guidance could help Kussow look like a fourth-round steal quickly.
Nationals: Marconi German, SS/3B (No. 28)
A $400,000 signee out of the Dominican Republic last offseason, German didn’t fly under the radar long as a DSL midseason and end-of-season All-Star with a .283/.479/.513 line, eight homers and 33 steals in 53 games. He might be just getting going and at a good time, considering Washington’s changes in player-development infrastructure. The switch-hitter has better raw power than his 5-foot-10 size would indicate and a decent approach for his age. If the Nats’ new group can help German tick up in either skillset in his age-18 season (while he’s still very malleable as a prospect), then German could be a face of the club’s PD improvements.
Phillies: Mavis Graves, LHP (No. 25)
A sixth-round pick in the 2022 Draft out of the South Carolina high school ranks, Graves has climbed one level per season through the Phillies’ system. A candidate to have been Philadelphia’s selection for this slot last year, he’s a 6-foot-6 southpaw with up to five pitches (including a slider that has registered north of 3,000 rpms) who has posted 11.9 K/9 across nearly 200 career Minor League innings. The walks began to tick back up in ‘25, but things began to click down the stretch, as he posted a 1.30 ERA in his final eight starts for High-A Jersey Shore to pave the way for an age-22 campaign in which he’s poised to make a jump into the upper levels of the Minors.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Brewers: Frank Cairone, LHP (No. 26)
Cairone came as a bit of a shock when he went to the Crew with the 68th overall pick in July, but the New Jersey prep pitcher had a lot going for him. He was only 17 on Draft Day. His slider reached 2,900-3,000 rpms at the Draft Combine, and his fastball ran up to 95 mph with 7 feet of extension at the same event. There’s much to work with for a prep lefty. Cairone needs to hold that velocity deeper into starts as he enters the pros, but after a first full offseason of strength training and prep, he could make Milwaukee evaluators look smart quickly in his age-18 campaign.
Cardinals: Cade Crossland, LHP (No. 28)
After stints in Division II and the JuCo ranks, Crossland transferred to Oklahoma for 2025, only to strain a back muscle in the fall. He was picking up velocity as the spring wore on, touching 97-98 mph in May, and that helped him go to the Cardinals in the fourth round in July. His 83-85 mph changeup already profiles as a plus pitch, and if the velocity continues to pick up with more distance from the back injury, he could have two such plus offerings. Finding consistency in his breaking stuff -- with a slider and curve that blend together -- should be a priority in pro ball.
Cubs: Juan Cabada, 2B/3B (No. 14)
Cabada was one of the Cubs' biggest signings in the 2025 international class ($1.5 million) and immediately stands out for his advanced hitting ability. The left-handed-swinging infielder has quick wrists that enable a quality line-drive approach. He's on the smaller size at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, so there are questions about his power ceiling, but it's easy to imagine his discerning eye helping him pick the right pitches to drive in the future. Most scouts don't think he'll stay at shortstop long term, in part because of the Cubs' depth at the position on the farm, but his performance there bears watching.
Pirates: Tony Blanco Jr., 1B/OF (No. 30)
Few hitters at any level of affiliated ball have shown an ability to light up Statcast like Blanco. After accounting for the hardest-hit ball (120.4 mph) and longest home run (464 feet) in the Arizona Fall League (in addition to a legendary Home Run Derby performance), the son of a former big leaguer has set the stage for a breakout in 2026. Hamstring injuries limited him to open last season, but when healthy, he notched an .859 OPS in 30 games between the Rookie-level Florida Complex League and Single-A -- including a 119.8 mph walk-off homer on Aug. 2. If he makes enough contact to get to that light-tower power consistently, there will be a significant up arrow next to Blanco’s name.
Reds: Arnaldo Lantigua, OF (No. 12)
The Reds directly benefited from the Dodgers’ quest to sign Roki Sasaki, adding Lantigua to their ranks in exchange for 2025 international signing period funds. The No. 23 prospect in his own international class in ‘23, Lantigua rebounded after repeating the DSL in ‘24 and responded to a push up to Single-A last summer with aplomb. His .490 SLG and .225 ISO ranked fourth among all Reds Minor Leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances in ‘25, as he delivered a max exit velocity of 107.5 mph during his time with Daytona. His walk rate took a bit of a nose dive as he came stateside (8.1 percent in 81 games this season), but by continuing to slug, he provided a further tantalizing glimpse into his all-around offensive potential.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
D-backs: David Hagaman, RHP (No. 15)
Hagaman underwent internal brace surgery as a junior at West Virginia, was on the comeback trail in the Rangers system, got traded to the D-backs as part of the Merrill Kelly deal and finished 2025 with five appearances in the Arizona Fall League. It’s a lot over about 19 months. He stands out most for his big-time extension over 7 feet, and that helps a fastball that already reaches the upper 90s. Hagaman has both a curveball and a slider to go with a changeup that all flash above-average. His strike-throwing improved in the pros, albeit thanks to a healthy amount of chase, but he’ll have to prove that can hold with more starts deeper outings before jumping up significantly.
Dodgers: Adam Serwinowski, LHP (No. 13)
Already possessing a fastball that touches triple digits and a high-spin slider, Serwinowski has sky-high potential, and the 21-year-old lefty gets added deception out of his funky delivery and impressive extension out of his 6-foot-5 frame. The big questions for him are about his fringy changeup and improving command. After he arrived via trade in July, his walk rate did improve from 11.7 percent to 10.1, but further progress is needed in the upper Minors. The Dodgers are a good system for him to land in, though, as they have plenty of pitching depth and he doesn't need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft for another offseason.
Giants: Rayner Arias, OF (No. 8)
Arias was the No. 15 prospect in the 2023 international class but has yet to break out after injuries have limited him to just 95 total games across his first five seasons. Now he'll have one of the most highly anticipated full-season debuts of 2026. The Dominican native stands out for his plus raw right-handed power. It hasn't shown up in games yet, and he's struck out more than you'd like, although it's hard to tell how much of that had to do with multiple wrist injuries. Staying healthy will be a big first step, but he has big offensive potential with a chance to stick in center if it all comes together.
Padres: Tucker Musgrove, RHP (No. 24)
A former two-way player at the University of Mobile's NAIA-affiliated program, Musgrove did all he could to stand out in the pitching-starved Fall League, showing off a four-seamer and sinker in the upper 90s along with a cutter, a sweeper, a slider and a curveball. He throws all of them with upward of 7 feet of extension. Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after signing in 2023 and suffered setbacks throughout 2025, limiting his pro output severely. If his health and stuff hold in ‘26, he could be on the fast track to San Diego.
Rockies: Riley Kelly, RHP (No. 18)
Colorado nabbed Kelly in the fourth round of the 2025 Draft, betting that the gains he made during a shift to the rotation in his junior year can be carried over into pro ball. At 6-foot-5, Kelly has two major points working in his favor: a history of light usage (due to a combination of injuries and inconsistencies) and a background as a high school quarterback, giving him premium athleticism on the bump. In a system perpetually on the prowl for upside pitching talent, the highest-drafted UC Irvine hurler in more than a decade offers plenty of that with a curveball that often exceeds 3,000 rpms and a 92-96 mph heater that he can dot up. He will be making his pro debut in ‘26 and projects as a fast mover if his newfound affinity for throwing strikes can continue with the Rockies.