Giants facing big decisions this winter

November 2nd, 2022

This story was excerpted from Maria Guardado’s Giants Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

As soon as the World Series comes to an end, offseason business will kick into high gear for the Giants. Here’s a handy FAQ to get you ready for the start of Hot Stove season:

Which players are free agents?
First baseman Brandon Belt, outfielder Joc Pederson and relievers José Álvarez and Shelby Miller. Left-hander Carlos Rodón is also expected to opt out of his two-year deal with the Giants, leaving $22.5 million on the table to seek a more lucrative free-agent contract this winter.

Are any of them likely to receive qualifying offers? When is the deadline for that?

The Giants have extended qualifying offers to impending free agents in three consecutive years. That trend figures to continue with Rodón, who is eligible to receive a qualifying offer since he hasn’t been tagged with one previously in his career. If Rodón were to decline the one-year deal and sign elsewhere, the Giants would receive Draft pick compensation.

San Francisco will have until five days after the World Series ends to extend qualifying offers. Recipients will then have until Nov. 15 to accept or reject the deals.

Left-hander Will Smith (2019), right-hander Kevin Gausman (2020) and Belt (2021) previously received qualifying offers from the Giants, though only Gausman and Belt accepted.

Which players have options, and what’s the impact on payroll?
The Giants will have a decision to make on third baseman Evan Longoria, who has a $13 million club option for 2023 that includes a $5 million buyout. Longoria, 37, has expressed interest in returning and said he’d be open to renegotiating his deal with San Francisco if necessary.

Who might be a non-tender candidate? When does the club have to make that decision?
A dozen Giants will be eligible for arbitration this year, so the club will have some interesting calls to make at this year’s non-tender deadline on Nov. 18, though the more difficult part of the equation will be figuring out how to clear space for the prospects who will need to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the annual Rule 5 Draft.

Logan Webb, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis, Jakob Junis, Austin Slater, John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers should be slam dunks to return, along with Mike Yastrzemski, who is coming off two consecutive down seasons but still offers some left-handed pop and excellent defense in the outfield. Scott Alexander made only 17 appearances in 2022, but he impressed and emerged as a high-leverage relief option down the stretch, so it would make sense to keep him in the fold for next year.

The outlook appears a bit murkier for LaMonte Wade Jr.. Wade struggled mightily following his breakout 2021 campaign, but he could help fill the void at first base if the Giants choose to move on from Belt.

The club’s biggest non-tender candidates are probably two other relievers: Jarlín García and Zack Littell. With fellow lefties Alexander, Alex Young and Thomas Szapucki on the roster, García appears expendable, particularly following an uneven 2022 campaign. Littell logged a 5.08 ERA over 39 appearances and never returned from Triple-A Sacramento following an incident with manager Gabe Kapler in September.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft? When does that need to be set?
Shortstop Marco Luciano, who is ranked the Giants’ No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline, is likely the only lock to be protected this offseason, though outfielder Luis Matos (No. 3), infielder Will Wilson (No. 26), catcher Ricardo Genovés and right-handers Tristan Beck, Jose Cruz and Nick Avila could draw strong consideration as well.

Outfielders Hunter Bishop (No. 23) and Jairo Pomares (No. 14) are two other notable prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, but neither has played above High-A Eugene, so it would be hard to see the Giants adding them to the 40-man roster by the Nov. 15 deadline.

What kind of help do they need, and will they be active in free agency? Who might they target? 
The Giants are expecting to cast a wide net following their disappointing 81-81 finish in 2022. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has said nothing is off the table, so get ready to be hit with a deluge of Aaron Judge rumors. Improving the defense will be a priority, so the Giants could also make a run at free-agent shortstops like Trea Turner or Carlos Correa, who has said he will opt out of his deal with the Twins.