It was a wild Wednesday for the Hot Stove -- especially in the Big Apple. Early in the day, Cody Bellinger agreed to a deal to return to the Yankees, taking the top free-agent position player off the board. Several hours later, it was the Mets’ turn to strike. On the same day they introduced Bo Bichette in Queens, and less than 24 hours after acquiring Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox, they made a trade with the Brewers for ace right-hander Freddy Peralta. To make sense of it all, we asked MLB Insider Mark Feinsand to break down what these two major transactions mean for the teams involved, the top remaining free agents and the trade market.
1. Less than a week ago, the Mets were facing mounting pressure after missing out on Kyle Tucker. Since then, they signed Bichette and traded for Robert … but they still weren’t done. Now that they’ve acquired Peralta for the top of their rotation, do you think they’re finally done making significant additions to this roster?
I would have to think so. In the span of a week, the Mets have addressed their needs in center field, third base and at the top of the rotation, turning what had been a very quiet offseason into one of the busiest. Left field remains the only real question mark on the roster, but the Mets have a number of internal options -- Brett Baty, Carson Benge and Tyrone Taylor -- to try out during Spring Training. As for the remaining free agents, some had pegged Framber Valdez as a good fit -- more on him later -- but with Peralta now headed to Citi Field, the rotation seems pretty set.
2. What about the Yankees? A reunion with Bellinger had made sense throughout the offseason. Now that it’s happened, does this likely put a cap on the Yankees’ significant offseason moves, or might they look to make another splash?
Frankly, I’m not sure there’s a need for another huge splash. I know the Yankees fan base is disappointed in the championship drought that has lasted 16 seasons, but New York tied for the most wins in the American League last year, missing out on the AL East title and the No. 1 seed because of the tiebreaker with Toronto. The Yankees have added Ryan Weathers, Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn for rotation depth while Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón rehab from injury, but once those two return, the rotation -- which also includes Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren -- will be in great shape.
The Yankees had been in contact with the Brewers about Peralta, but now that he’s off the board, I don’t expect them to be in the mix for any of the free-agent starters, including Valdez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. As for the lineup, Bellinger was the only missing piece. With that situation settled, GM Brian Cashman will likely look to add a bullpen piece or two, but the bench looks finished with Amed Rosario, Oswaldo Cabrera, Jasson Domínguez and potentially Spencer Jones. When Anthony Volpe returns from his left shoulder surgery, José Caballero will join that bench group, as well. Bellinger was the big piece of unfinished business, but that has now been addressed.
3. Since the start of this offseason, Peralta was discussed as one of the top trade candidates available. Are there any other starting pitchers of note who appear likely to be dealt before Opening Day?
I’m a bit surprised that MacKenzie Gore is still on the Nationals, and now that we’ve seen the price the Mets paid for one year of Peralta, it wouldn’t shock me if Washington asked for more than that for two years of control with Gore. Because he’s under control for two years, the Nationals could wait and try to trade Gore before the Trade Deadline, when he would still be able to impact two pennant races.
The Marlins have already moved Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, so it would be somewhat surprising to see them trade Sandy Alcantara before Opening Day, though the right offer could make Miami change its mind. Luis Severino is another name to watch; his performance at home (2-9, 6.01 ERA) was terrible last season while his road numbers (6-2, 3.02 ERA) were excellent. Getting him to a new team with which he won’t have to make half of his starts in Sacramento would be ideal for the 31-year-old.
Then, of course, there’s Tarik Skubal, though it remains the longest of long shots that the Tigers trade the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner before the season.
4. With Bellinger gone, the top group of free-agent position players all have finally found homes, leaving the likes of Eugenio Suárez, Luis Arraez and Harrison Bader atop that market. Where might they land?
Suárez is the biggest bat left on the market, and the Pirates, Tigers and Reds would all make sense as they look to add some pop to their respective lineups. A return to Seattle would also be a natural fit for Suárez, though the team that could now make a push for him is the Red Sox, who lost Alex Bregman and missed out on Bo Bichette, leaving a hole in the infield. Suárez could play third base, shifting Marcelo Mayer back to second base.
Arraez’s market isn’t as clear, though a number of teams continue to monitor him. The fact that he can play first base, second base or DH gives potential suitors some options, and while he posted the lowest batting average (.292) of his career, he still led the NL with 181 hits and ranked at the top of the Majors in whiff rate, strikeout rate and squared-up rate, remaining one of the elite contact hitters in the game.
Bader is the best outfielder left on the market, and a number of teams including the Mets, Diamondbacks and Cardinals need more help in that area. A reunion with the Phillies can’t be ruled out, though that seems like a long shot at this point.
5. For teams still looking for an impact bat, what are the most realistic trade options at this point?
With only a few weeks remaining until Spring Training, the number of available bats on the trade market are few and far between. Luis Robert Jr. was an intriguing change-of-scenery candidate, but the Mets acquired him on Tuesday. Ryan Mountcastle has shown the ability to impact a lineup (33 home runs in 2021), but it’s been a few years since he put together a full, healthy, productive season. Baltimore has nowhere for Mountcastle to play with the addition of Pete Alonso and the emergence of Samuel Basallo, so the 28-year-old could likely be had at a minimal cost. There has been some buzz about the Astros potentially making Isaac Paredes available, though it’s far from certain that he’ll be moved. Infielders Nico Hoerner, Brendan Donovan and Brett Baty may not fit the “impact bat” definition, but all three could be moved prior to the season.
6. Things are less settled on the free-agent starting pitching market, with Framber Valdez leading the way among those still available. Is there any indication that Valdez’s market is heating up, and who might have the upper hand for him?
There has been no indication that Valdez’s market has changed much, though the Peralta trade likely takes the Mets out of the mix. That leaves the Orioles as the most logical landing spot for the left-hander, though it remains to be seen whether the 32-year-old can land the long-term deal he’s seeking. Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias was in Houston’s front office early in Valdez’s career, but is that history enough for Baltimore to hand him big money? Based on the calendar and the (seemingly) limited number of suitors, perhaps Valdez will have to settle for a shorter-term, higher-AAV deal the way others in the market have done this offseason. Whether a team -- the Orioles or anyone else -- will be willing to surrender Draft picks for a short-term deal might be the important question.