SEATTLE -- The dust has settled on the regular season, and now, the Mariners await their postseason fate -- specifically, for who they’ll face.
Following Sunday’s 6-1 loss to the Dodgers, the Mariners have five off-days before beginning the American League Division Series -- against the winner of the Wild Card Series between the Guardians and Tigers. That best-of-three set is slated for Tuesday through Thursday and will be played in Cleveland.
Having locked in the AL’s No. 2 seed, the Mariners will have home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, unless they were to meet the Blue Jays in the AL Championship Series.
Now that the Mariners are in, here’s a look at what comes next:
What could the postseason roster look like?
Catchers (2): Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver
First baseman (1): Josh Naylor
Second baseman (1): Jorge Polanco
Third baseman (1): Eugenio Suárez
Shortstop (1): J.P. Crawford
Outfielders (3): Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles
DH/Utility (4): Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley, Leo Rivas, Miles Mastrobuoni
Starters (4): Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo
Relievers (9): Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, Bryce Miller, Carlos Vargas, Caleb Ferguson, Emerson Hancock, Luke Jackson
The Mariners don’t have to finalize their 26-man roster until the morning of Game 1; then, it’s locked in for the entire series. If they were to make a roster move, any player removed would then be ineligible for the ensuing series should they advance. For example, a player moved to the IL would be ineligible for the AL Championship Series but could return for the World Series. Clubs can re-set their roster after each playoff round.
How do the Mariners match up with the Tigers and Guardians?
The saying goes that “it’s not just who you play, but when you play them,” and that’s particularly true for these two AL Central clubs and when they faced the Mariners.
Seattle went 4-2 against the Tigers in the regular season ( 1-2 at T-Mobile Park from March 31-April 2 and 3-0 at Comerica Park in their final series before the All-Star break). The second series was among the most defining of each team’s season, as the Mariners were coming off arguably their worst loss of the year the day prior, while the Tigers boasted MLB’s best record.
Rodríguez, who’d just turned down an invitation to the All-Star Game, stormed through Detroit and hasn’t looked back since, leading the AL with 3.8 wins above replacement over that span, per FanGraphs. The Tigers, meanwhile, went 28-40 the rest of the way and wound up blowing a 15 1/2-game lead atop the AL Central.
Against Cleveland, the Mariners went 3-0 at T-Mobile Park from June 13-15 then 1-2 at Progressive Field from Aug. 29-31, the latter series featuring one of the Mariners’ toughest losses of the year. That was at the very beginning of the Guardians’ historic stretch to the division title, as they entered the latter series .500 before going 22-8 the rest of the way.
What is the postseason schedule?
The NL and AL Wild Card Series will take place from Sept. 30-Oct. 2, with the Division Series round beginning Oct. 4 for both leagues. You’ll find the most up-to-date information about schedules and potential matchups at MLB.com/postseason.
How will the Mariners’ rotation line up?
If Bryan Woo recovers from the minor inflammation in his pectoral muscle, he’s been their most consistent arm, though he indicated on Thursday when playing catch for the first time that he’s operating on a five-day routine -- which would line him up for Game 2, if he continues to progress. It’s also possible that the Mariners push him to Game 3, which would be on the road, as doing so would allow him two extra days’ rest, and he’s had more success away from T-Mobile Park than any of their starters.
Beyond Woo, the club could have some interesting decisions to make, but their best course might be to not overthink things.
Logan Gilbert hasn’t consistently pitched deep into games the way he did last year when leading MLB with 208 2/3 innings, but he also possesses some of the sport’s best swing-and-miss stuff, which is especially vital in October, as Gilbert’s 32.3% K rate ranks second among 105 pitchers with at least 120 innings.
Yet the recent road struggles from George Kirby and Luis Castillo could also play into the calculus, as they’ve been far better at home (with a combined 2.91 ERA compared to a 4.90 ERA on the road), though they're theoretically after Gilbert and Woo on the depth chart.
The potential quandary that the front office would face is whether to start either Kirby or Castillo in Game 1 at home then go with Gilbert in Game 3 on the road, or push Woo to Game 3, which could come with risk if they’re facing elimination, as his next start will be his first since the injury.
Which players are on the roster bubble?
Expanded rosters for September will drop back from 28 to 26 players when the playoffs begin, and the Mariners don’t appear to have many major decisions to make here. Rookie catcher Harry Ford, who has barely played since earning his callup, presents an interesting case for lineups in which the Mariners use both Cal Raleigh and Mitch Garver.
Fellow rookie Cole Young could also be an odd man out, if the Mariners instead favor Miles Mastrobuoni off the bench, given that he also bats left-handed like Young but can play multiple infield and outfield positions and is the better baserunner. And Mastrobuoni was indeed recalled from Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday.
When do postseason tickets go on sale?
For full Mariners postseason ticket information, click here. The club announced on Thursday that it has sold out the ALDS, though tickets for potential AL Championship and World Series games will be released if the Mariners advance.