Recipe for playoffs? Ride September wave!

October 6th, 2021

ST. LOUIS -- The Cardinals morphed from an almost anticipated series win to a team that no one wants to face -- at the exact right time.

Shades of the 2011 World Series champion Cardinals have found this year’s club, whose run that September catapulted them into a Wild Card berth before an improbable postseason run and the franchise’s 11th ring.

But this year’s club is hotter, their recent streak of 17 consecutive wins not just unrivaled in baseball this season but one almost unrivaled in baseball history for its placement in the calendar. No team thinks that 17 straight wins is a realistic possibility, but at the very least, the Cardinals long maintained that they had the capability to play like a team that could make it happen.

“I think the biggest thing when you look at this club, and you think back to late May and really that dark month of June, we just weren't our team,” said president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, rattling off a list of injuries to starters. “... You had a lot of things going on from an offensive standpoint that just weren't clicking. I think internally we've made some adjustments on how we approach hitting, and I think the outcome or the performance is something that we're all seeing together.”

So how can St. Louis shift its September momentum into October success?

How do the Cardinals advance out of the Wild Card game?
By seizing what their opponent gives them

The Cardinals have made their dollar this season, and especially in September, by taking what’s offered to them. From their own vantage point, they have been playing more relaxed, cleaner and fuller, one-through-nine-inning baseball than their opponents.

Given the pedigree of the starter they’re set to face, St. Louis is not looking like they’ll have much, or any, chance to get picky. Though Max Scherzer has been shaky as of late, he’s still the three-time (and possibly four-time) Cy Young Award winner that shut down his hometown Cardinals twice this season.

The Cardinals feature a consistent breadth of speed across their lineup, from Tommy Edman at the top, to Tyler O’Neill’s almost otherworldly mix of power and speed, to even Yadier Molina picking his spots with three swiped bags on the year. They are among the tops in MLB in stolen bases, sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies -- an homage to the “Whiteyball” that won them three pennants and a World Series in the 1980s.

With Scherzer in Dodger blue and Adam Wainwright in Cardinal red, a run or two might decide whose season survives and whose, crushingly, ends.

What does the blueprint for a championship run look like?
Riding what made them clutch in September

At no point in June did the Cardinals believe their performance reflected their talent. Their output that month, from both their pitchers and position players, was among the worst in the Majors. Part of that was due to health, with several starters -- including several atop their rotation -- out for a prolonged period of time.

They didn’t think they were as bad as their 10-17 June record. Nor did they expect 17 consecutive wins. But what about the manner and quality with which they won?

“This is what we were hoping for all along,” Mozeliak said. “ … None of this, we speculated, was going to create this 17-game run, but what you were hoping for is to see us be able to put up some numbers early in the game, and then also continue to add on late in a game. Over the last month and a half, that's what we've been able to witness.”

The Cardinals won in several different ways in September. They won in blowouts, in small margins, in come-from-behind manners, by their pitching and by their lineup. They’ve received at least one marquee game from the majority of their lineup in the season’s final month. They’ve received stellar defense, with viral double plays, the most defensive runs saved in the Majors and five legitimate Gold Glove candidates.

They are, quite simply, playing like the team they long trusted was buried deep down.

What is one reason for concern?
Their depth, and in part, their health

The Cardinals waltzed into the final week of the season without two of their everyday players healthy. Molina and Edmundo Sosa were nursing mild nicks and bruises, but ones that took at-bats away from them nonetheless before they returned in the final two games. Also of concern is that St. Louis has also gotten middling performances from its pinch-hitters and bench this season, their collective -0.9 bWAR better than only one playoff-bound NL team. Season-long struggles from Matt Carpenter, thought to be St. Louis’ biggest home run threat off the bench, exacerbated such holes.

They have their stars, but the Cards have their questions.

And sometimes, those truisms are intertwined. What can be expected from Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson? Are those two even on the Wild Card roster? Signs point to yes, especially given the one-day nature of the affair, but their durability and capability are of valid concern -- and doubly so if the Cardinals advance, like several of St. Louis' other potential shortcomings.