It’s difficult to think of a season in which the Cardinals' rotation, just two weeks out of Opening Day, has ever felt so unsettled. But the difference now is that unsettled, all told, may not be the worst thing.
The Cardinals, traditionally, for all the star hitters they’ve had over the last 25-plus years, tend to rise and fall with their rotation. When they can count on the rotation, they win, and when they can’t, they don’t.
But what’s so interesting about this year’s rotation is that while it is certainly unsettled this spring -- this Spring has in many ways felt like a series of small competitions -- that unsettled nature may be more of a feature than a bug.
To paraphrase an old line about comedy writing, the Cardinals are going to be throwing a lot of pitchers at the wall to see what sticks (hopefully not literally).
Their rotation is young and mostly under team control for years to come, which doesn’t give the Cardinals a lot of certainty but does give them flexibility and even freedom. That’s the key to this entire season: Figuring out who is, in fact, going to stick, who’s going to be a part of the next great Cardinals team. And that makes this year’s rotation almost an ongoing experiment: Who can the Cardinals count on?
The occasional hints that the team might consider a six-man rotation, or other possibilities that would have been unheard of in the days of Jeff Suppan, are signs that the Cardinals may be thinking of the rotation as a work in progress, essentially the entire year.
But that doesn’t mean, with the season two weeks away, we can’t speculate a little. Last year, the Cardinals had eight different pitchers start games for them. Here’s guessing there will be more than that this year.
Thus, here is a Preseason Cardinals Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, with everyone we think has a possibility to start games this year, but ranked by where they would show up in the rotation queue as of this moment.
This list will change throughout the year. It will surely change immediately. That’s sort of the fun of it.
1. Matthew Liberatore
Fun trivia question: Who’s the last Cardinals left-hander to be the Opening Day starter?
The answer is, remarkably, Donovan Osborne, way back in 1999 (the last one before him was Joe Magrane in 1990).
Liberatore looks likely to be the first lefty this century to take the hill on Opening Day, though I’m not sure anyone, not least of all Liberatore himself, would call him an ace just yet.
Liberatore had his moments last year, particularly at the season’s beginning, putting up a 2.73 ERA in his first 10 starts. It got a little uglier after that -- he had a 5.77 ERA in July and August -- but he settled down and got back to respectability in September.
If anything, it was important to get a full season of starting under his belt, but remember, he has only two years of team control remaining after this season. If he’s going to be a Cardinal beyond 2028, he needs to be, if not an ace, at least a solid No. 2 starter moving forward. He’s had a full year in the rotation. Now it’s time for him to have a good one.
2. Dustin May
The “grandpa” of the staff at 28 -- he has started only four more games in his career than Liberatore has -- has looked sharp in the spring, which is to say, he has looked healthy for the first time in a while.
He’s exactly the sort of pitcher the Cardinals should be taking a chance on: Either he takes off and becomes a part of this team’s future, he takes off and brings back a lot at the Deadline, or he doesn’t take off and the Cardinals can just move on.
Right now, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if he ends up the ace of this staff, perhaps straight from the get-go. There’s reason to be excited about May -- if the Cardinals surprise this year by being better than people realize, he’ll surely be one of the main reasons why -- but of all the pitchers on this list, he still feels like the one least likely to be a part of a great, say, 2029 Cardinals team.
3. Michael McGreevy
McGreevy actually started 16 games for the Cardinals last year, but he should have started more.
Erick Fedde, despite the fact that he continued to struggle, kept making starts in the Cardinals' rotation throughout June and July in a spot that could have been McGreevy’s (the idea was that the Cardinals were showcasing Fedde for potential trade suitors. They ended up just waiving him).
McGreevy wasn’t particularly spectacular for the Cardinals in 2025, but he was better than Fedde and, more to the point, eight years younger.
He’s the sort of pitcher the Cardinals should just put in the rotation to see what they have. McGreevy has added a slider this spring, giving up six or even seven pitches to choose from, something that’s important considering he still doesn’t throw particularly hard. His platonic ideal is being a steady No. 3 starter who gives you innings and a chance to win every night. He’ll have the opportunity to be just that, immediately … just as long as he can keep the ball in the yard.
4. Richard Fitts
Fitts was acquired in the Sonny Gray trade -- Cardinals fans are likely to spent the next half-decade getting confused between which Red Sox pitcher they got in the Gray trade (Fitts and Brandon Clarke) and which they got in the Willson Contreras trade (Hunter Dobbins) -- and no pitcher has done more this spring to earn himself a rotation spot than Fitts. He has been the hardest thrower in camp, and looking at him, it’s not difficult to see why: He’s absolutely huge. (I don’t remember a more physically imposing Cardinals pitcher. Maybe Lee Smith?)
He has actually already made 14 starts in his career and is already 26 years old -- he’s almost the exact same age as Liberatore -- which means there really isn’t much reason not to put him in the rotation right now and let him cook. There is a non-zero possibility that he puts up just as good a season in St. Louis in 2026 as Gray does in Boston in 2026.
5. Kyle Leahy
He has been a career reliever for the Cardinals, and a good one, but he made a start in the last game of the 2025 season with the implicit understanding that he’d get a chance to make the rotation in 2026.
He made a fantastic case for himself over the weekend, striking out five in four scoreless innings against the Mets, and while he’s not necessarily overpowering, he keeps the ball in the ballpark (0.51 HR/9 last year) and keeps his walk rate low (2.86 BB/9 last year).
It’s possible he ends up in a swingman role, but he has gotten better with each spring start and could not possibly be making a better case for himself. If he makes the rotation, he’ll be its oldest member: He’s actually a few months older than May.
6. Andre Pallante
We talked about Pallante last week, and it remains true: This is probably Pallante’s last chance.
He was rocked relentlessly last year, mostly because he couldn’t locate his fastball, allowing hitters to just ignore his offspeed stuff and then crush the fastball. He’s a little younger than you might think, but he’s also the fourth-highest-paid player on the roster, which means he’s approaching the next tier of arbitration without a lot of production to show for it.
Just inertia alone may keep him in the rotation to start the year, but barring widespread injuries, he may be the pitcher who needs a hot start the most to remain in this rotation.
7. Quinn Mathews
The plan had been for Mathews to already be in the rotation by now.
He was named MLB Pipeline’s Pitching Prospect of the Year for 2024, but it all went sideways on him in 2025. His early injury issues led to widespread control issues (he walked 7.1 batters per nine innings in 22 starts at Triple-A Memphis) and, ultimately, him plummeting down prospect charts.
But that’s the life of a pitcher. The pendulum has swung back the other direction in Spring Training, striking out seven with no walks in a recent 50-pitch, 2 2/3 inning appearance against the Pirates.
He’s 25 years old and someone the Cardinals remain excited about, despite last year’s struggles. If he truly has rediscovered his control, when he inevitably gets his shot at the rotation (which may be sooner rather than later), he may not leave.
8. Hunter Dobbins
Dobbins was a more effective starter for the Red Sox -- remember, he came over in the Contreras trade! -- in 2025 than Fitts was, but his year ended with a torn ACL. He is close to being fully recovered from the injury, which, helpfully, is not an arm injury, but he has not yet made a Grapefruit League appearance.
He’s older than Liberatore, Fitts and McGreevy, so when he’s back and ready, there might not be much reason not to put him in the rotation.
I’ll put it this way: It strikes me as far more likely that he’ll be in the rotation at the end of the year than Pallante is.
Who else?
So those are the top eight. But the fun of this season is that there are even more options. Lefty Brycen Mautz, the organization’s 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, could make the roster in a reliever or swing role but will be in the mix for a rotation spot at some point.
Gordon Graceffo is pitching for Italy right now, but has started for the Cardinals before. Perhaps the most exciting option is Jurrangelo Cijntje, who certainly looks like a potential midseason injection. And who knows what other experimentations might be on the horizon. That truly is the fun of this season.