What to expect from Dylan Carlson in bigs

August 14th, 2020

When the St. Louis Cardinals return to action on Saturday against the White Sox, they’ll do so with top prospect Dylan Carlson on their roster.

Carlson, MLB Pipeline’s No. 18 overall prospect, is one of five Minor Leaguers expected to be promoted by St. Louis from the team’s alternate training site in Springfield, Mo., when it finally resumes its regular-season schedule. And while Carlson’s exact role with the club has yet to be announced, it’s reasonable to assume that he’ll be slotted into an everyday role in the Cardinals’ outfield after Lane Thomas and Austin Dean both tested positive for COVID-19 last weekend.

Cardinals fans have been clamoring for the team to call up Carlson, whom the organization selected in the first round of the 2016 Draft (No. 33 overall), since late last season, when he was putting the final touches on a breakout campaign that earned him recognition as the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year.

The Double-A Texas League’s fourth-youngest player and second-youngest position player on Opening Day last year, Carlson slashed .281/.364/.518 with 21 homers (51 extra-base hits), 81 runs scored and 18 steals in 108 games for Springfield. The performance netted the then-20-year-old honors as the Texas League’s Player of the Year, and he continued to produce after receiving a late-season promotion up to Triple-A Memphis, posting a .361/.418/.681 line with five homers in 18 games.

Altogether, Carlson combined to slash .292/.372/.542 with 26 home runs, eight triples, 28 doubles, 20 stolen bases, and a .914 OPS in 126 games between the two stops. He was one of 10 minor leaguers to finish the season with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases and the first Cardinal to accomplish the feat since Terry Evans (22-26) and Tyler Greene (20-33) in 2006.

Among Cardinals farmhands, he led the organization in hits (143), triples, total bases (265), ranked second in home runs, runs scored (95), slugging, OPS and finished in the top five in doubles (4th), RBI (5th), stolen bases (5th), and walks (58, 5th). 

Carlson continued to open eyes this past spring as a non-roster invitee to Cardinals big league camp, batting .500 over his first six games before finishing with a .313/.436/.469 overall line.

Here’s a more in-depth look at what to expect from Carlson, a switch-hitter with average-or-better tools across the board, when he makes his highly anticipated Major League debut:

Hit (55): Carlson’s hitting ability has improved in each of his four professional seasons even as he’s been challenged repeatedly by the Cardinals with aggressive assignments that have made him young for every level at which he’s played. He enjoyed more success as a right-handed hitter early in his career before blossoming as a lefty in 2019 to slash .299/.381/.551 -- a marked improvement over his .230/.342/.348 line as a left-handed hitter in ’18. More importantly, he made those gains without it detracting from his right-handed production (.274/.345/.516). And while he does have some swing-and-miss to his game and fanned in 20.6 percent of his 562 plate appearances in 2019 -- bringing his career strikeout rate to 21.7 percent -- Carlson has long exhibited an advanced and patient approach during his rise through the Minors, posting an 11-percent walk rate and .350 OBP across 1,712 plate appearances.

Power (60): Carlson erupted to hit a career-high 26 homers in ’19 after totaling 21 home runs across his first 277 Minor League games (2016-18). The biggest difference, compared to his first three seasons, was that he finally tapped into his plus raw power as a left-handed hitter, connecting on 18 home runs while averaging one homer per 20.3 at-bats from that side of the plate. As a righty, Carlson went deep every 15.5 ABs, and, overall, his fly-ball and line-drive rate from both sides of the plate increased by nearly seven percent. Hitting 20-plus home runs per season in the big leagues could become the norm for the 6-foot-2, 205-pound outfielder, who can drive the ball out of the park to all fields from both sides of the plate thanks to a blend of bat speed, physical strength and selectiveness.  

Run (55): On top of being a standout athlete and an above-average runner, Carlson also has become more aggressive on the bases in his career and improved his stolen-base totals in each of his four seasons. He was successful in 20 of 28 steal attempts in 2019 and should continue to swipe his share of bags in the Majors given his penchant for drawing walks and getting on base. 

Arm (55): Carlson’s above-average arm strength fits well at any of the three outfield positions.

Field (60): The Cardinals deployed Carlson at all three outfield spots during Spring Training with excellent results, as he made multiple highlight reel catches while showing advanced instincts at each position. Though he’s not a burner, the 21-year-old is a plus defender who can run down balls with the best of ‘em -- a product of his excellent defensive instincts, quick first step and knack for taking efficient routes. He saw more time in center (165 games) and right field (152) than left (70) in the Minors but is likely to bounce between all three outfield positions in Majors, at least initially, as the Cardinals work to keep his bat in the lineup.