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No matter what happens over the rest of his career, Joshua Báez is going to be a part of baseball history – and, of course, Cardinals history. When you hit three homers in your first three career at-bats, your place in the sport’s lore is secure.
But once the attention of the rest of the baseball world inevitably turns elsewhere, and Báez’s cleats (or Blaze Jordan’s cleats anyway) rest in their display at the Hall of Fame, he will settle into being an everyday baseball player. And when he does, one thing is certain: He will be a big part of the Cardinals’ plans.
This would be true even if Báez had struck out five times in his debut: The Cardinals have been patient with the development of MLB Pipeline’s No. 59 prospect, have been preparing for this day to come and, while they reveled in the celebration on Saturday, are thinking long term.
With that in mind, here are five big questions about Báez’s future with the Cardinals.
Will he make enough contact?
This has been the big question for Báez since he was drafted in the second round in 2021: Not just can he avoid the strikeouts, but can he resist chasing out of the strike zone enough to maximize his natural power? His strikeout rate dropped from 35.5% in 2024 to 20.6% in 2025, and while it has fluctuated at times this year, he had mostly solved the problem, as much as he could in Triple-A anyway.
He is still going to strike out a lot, as any player of his size and swing length will. (Ask Jordan Walker about that.) He just needs to make enough contact and his contact quality will shine through. Báez’s next few games after his debut showed the challenge he faces, as he went 0-for-17 with seven strikeouts. However, three of his outs in Monday’s doubleheader in Cincinnati were scalded, the types of balls that Statcast expects to go for hits between 54% and 78% of the time. If Báez can keep putting the bat on the ball, given the thump in that bat, good things will happen.
Where will he fit in the field – and the lineup?
Báez played some center field in the Minors, and in a pinch, you could probably put him there if you had to. But long-term, you’d have to think he’s a corner outfielder, and considering Walker is in right, you’d think left field is the spot for him. That spot does happen to be open after the trade of Lars Nootbaar – one made with Báez in mind, of course – and it’ll remain his as long as he keeps hitting. (Even if his arm is unusually strong for a left fielder.)
The other question is where he logically fits in the lineup. He batted fifth in his debut and his second game but, intriguingly, led off in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader against the Reds, against a soft-tossing lefty. (He was back to fifth in the nightcap.) Báez had a relatively low walk rate at Memphis, so it probably makes sense to have him lower in the order rather than higher. There is still a balance issue in the order: Manager Oliver Marmol has gone left-right, left-right most of the year, which is a tougher fit with the right-handed Báez. But do you want to separate him and Walker? Or do you like them back-to-back in the middle of the lineup?
Will the Cardinals have a second straight ROY contender?
The Cardinals waited to call up Báez until they were assured he wouldn’t play so many games that he would lose rookie status for next season. And remember: Because of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, teams have a chance to pick up an extra Draft pick if a rookie spends or all most of the year of the big leagues and wins Rookie of the Year. (That’s one reason why the Cardinals are rooting so hard for JJ Wetherholt to win it this year.)
There will be many NL Rookie of the Year candidates to compete with in 2027. But if Báez reaches his significant power potential, he could put up some numbers that are impossible to ignore.
Will the Cards look for an early extension opportunity?
Earlier this year in this space, we discussed the possibility of an extension with Walker, in the wake of his torrid start to the season and All-Star status. (And that was before the Home Run Derby.) Báez hasn’t had the success of Walker, obviously, but he clearly has that potential, and he’s someone the Cardinals have committed to. So what about an extension with him?
Walker isn’t the best comparison to Báez here. Rather, it’s Wetherholt who, like Báez, made his MLB debut this year and thus has many more years of team control than Walker – even before signing an eight-year extension. But perhaps an even better comparison is a just-up-to-the-bigs deal, like the Brewers have recently done with Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara, or, previously, with Jackson Chourio. If the Cardinals believe Báez is part of their future – and they seem to – the possibility would have to be on the table.
Can he bring back the Cardinals’ strut?
The Cardinals are in a period of transition, a transition that has been felt at Busch Stadium: Even with the fun of Tarps Off and Walker’s Home Run Derby victory, the place still has not quite yet returned to the glory of previous seasons. But Báez’s historic performance on Saturday was a global story that hit every quadrant: It was a game that everybody was talking about … and reaching out to their Cardinals fan friends to congratulate them on.
This is a fun team, and Báez is at the center of that: We all saw how joyous his teammates were for him. It’s a team, and a player, you want to cheer for. It sure feels like the start of something – on, and off, the field.