Welcome to September. By the end of this month, the playoffs will have started. We’ve been keeping track all year of what it means to hold a division lead entering any month, and there’s no question that it’s of more importance now than ever.
If your favorite team isn’t leading now but still has postseason aspirations, they’d better figure it out soon or be vying for a Wild Card spot.
Let's take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division and what the playoff field may look like. (Note: All stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.)
What it means to be in first place (or not be there)
Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league -- 140 of 174 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Sept. 1. That’s 80 percent of division winners.
There has not been a season since 1996 where none of the division leaders entering September went on to win their divisions that year. In other words, history tells us that most of the six current leaders -- the Rays, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers -- will win the division. But not necessarily all of them.
Last year, four of the six eventual division winners led entering September: the Blue Jays, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers. But in the AL Central, the Tigers led entering September but ended up a Wild Card, and in the West, the Astros led but ended up missing the playoffs entirely.
For those with comebacks in mind, the Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the largest division lead entering September for a team that did not win that division is 9 1/2 games by last year’s Tigers, as the Guardians engineered the largest comeback to win a division or league since 1900, with their largest deficit overall being 15 1/2 games (though not in September, when they merely trailed by 11 games at one point).
Largest division lead entering September, did not win division (Since 1969)
2025 Tigers: 9 1/2
1995 Angels: 7 1/2
1978 Red Sox: 6 1/2
2006 Tigers: 4 1/2
1969 Cubs: 4 1/2
What about eventual World Series winners? Since 1996, 19 of the 29 World Series winners, again, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering September.
This year’s leaders
Of this year’s current division leaders entering September, three were in this spot last year -- the Astros, Brewers and Dodgers. The Braves last led entering September in 2023 and both the Rays and White Sox last in 2021.
The Brewers and Dodgers went on to win their divisions last year. The Astros last won the AL West in 2024, the Braves last won the NL East in 2023 and the Rays and White Sox last won the AL East and Central, respectively, in 2021.
What’s next
There’s no longer plenty of baseball to be played. The baseball that’s left, it’s going to be among the highest of stakes. This is 27 days of important games. If your team is currently in playoff position, there’s a lot of evidence for optimism. And if your team isn’t, just know that we’ve seen plenty of September comebacks, all things considered -- including the largest of all just last year.