A stretch of 17 games in 17 days against postseason-caliber opponents looked like one of the toughest portions of their schedule all season, and the Cardinals emerged from it looking like they belonged.
A run of series against the Mariners, Pirates, Dodgers, Brewers and Padres produced a 9-7 record against clubs that have combined for a .555 winning percentage this season.
How the Cardinals fit into that equation is still up for debate, but if they want to continue to compete at a high level with playoff-caliber teams, they revealed three key pieces of the formula they’ll look to replicate all season long.
1. Uptick in swing-and-miss stuff
Prior to this stretch, the Cardinals' pitching staff caused opposing hitters to swing and miss on just 7.7% of strikes thrown, ranking 30th in the Majors and on pace for the 11th-worst mark from a pitching staff since 2000. The rotation was especially poor at inducing whiffs, striking out an MLB-worst 14.7% of the batters they faced.
Missing bats isn’t everything, but it’s the only way to guarantee an opposing hitter won’t do damage on that pitch. When a pitching staff is that bad at missing bats, it only increases the chances of runs being scored, with the Cardinals' 4.77 team ERA being the fifth-worst mark through April 23.
During this stretch, which included facing three top 10 offenses in runs scored this season, Cardinals pitchers were able to bump their swinging strike rate up to 10.6%, 16th in MLB during that stretch, and the rotation struck out 22.5% of the batters faced, 13th among all teams. The club’s ERA shrank to 3.45, 10th best among all staffs during those 17 days.
If the Cardinals can continue generating whiffs, they’ll be able to complement an offense that found a new gear as well.
2. The offense leveled up
The Cardinals' offense was inconsistent through their first 24 games, ranking in the middle of the pack in runs scored (112) while sitting in the bottom 12 in average, slugging percentage, and wRC+. Only Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson posted a wRC+ of 120 or higher, and only five bats were above the MLB average of 100.
Early in the season, opposing pitchers could pitch around the heart of the Cardinals’ lineup with little to no fear that the rest of their bats would make them pay. During this stretch, that changed.
In their last 16 games, the Cards ranked top 10 in runs, slugging percentage, and wRC+, with six of their hitters ranking above the 110 wRC+ mark. Their stars heated up, and the rest of their lineup was able to supplement that high-end production.
How St. Louis’ offense produces moving forward will determine its ceiling. The return of Lars Nootbaar appears to be on the horizon, offering another jolt of energy to this revived unit.
3. The response to adversity
St. Louis opened the stretch by getting swept by Seattle in a series where the Cards blew leads in all three games. But they answered with a four-game sweep in Pittsburgh and consistently bounced back from frustrating losses.
Every contender gets punched in the mouth throughout a six-month season. The Cardinals showed over the last two weeks that they have the resilience to respond.
St. Louis was hit with another one of those losses on Sunday after Nick Castellanos smashed a game-tying two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth before the Padres walked off the Cardinals in extra innings.
It was a deflating end to what was a very encouraging stretch, but if we learned anything about the Cards over the last few weeks, it’s that they will be ready to fire back against the Athletics when they return to action on Tuesday in West Sacramento.
If the Cardinals can pair that resilience with a high-octane offense and improved swing-and-miss stuff from their staff, they’ll have what it takes to compete at a high level all season long.