What we know about the 2026 Hall of Fame voting results so far

January 20th, 2026

We know that Jeff Kent is going into the Baseball Hall of Fame this year. Who will join him?

We will find out tonight, when the voting results from the Baseball Writers' Association of America ballot will be announced live on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET. But we don't have to wait until then to gain some insight into the voting.

Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame ballot tracker, we can keep up with how the vote is trending. And Jason Sardell, who has run simulations to project Hall of Fame vote totals for the past several years, has been providing periodic updates on projections for this year’s candidates.

Using these two valuable tools, here's what we can glean about the BBWAA voting so far.

2026 Hall of Fame coverage
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• Complete 2026 Hall of Fame voting results
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• Beltrán, Jones join elite club of Hall of Famers born outside the U.S.
• Jones among biggest risers in HOF voting history
• Kent elected to HOF by Contemporary Era committee
• Where does Class of 2026 rank all-time?
• 4 storylines to watch on 2027 Hall of Fame ballot
• Complete Hall of Fame coverage

Note: Thibodaux's ballot tracker has counted 223 ballots as of Monday at 10 p.m. ET. All vote percentages and projections are current as of that time.

1. Beltrán looks like a lock to get the Hall call

Maybe will hold off on celebrating until it becomes official, but the 20-year big leaguer can probably start making flight plans for Cooperstown this summer.

Beltrán has received a vote on 89.2% of the ballots counted by Thiboadaux's tracker. Like all players on the BBWAA ballot, he just needs to be above 75% of the vote when the final results are unveiled. According to Sardell's latest simulations, Beltrán ends up north of that magic number 100% of the time. So it looks like the Hall of Fame Class of 2026 will contain two members of the 2004 Astros.

One of the best power-speed threats of his generation, Beltrán is among five players in AL/NL history who have racked 500 doubles, 400 homers and 300 steals, joining Alex Rodríguez, Barry Bonds, Andre Dawson and Willie Mays.

2. Is Andruw in or out?

Now in his ninth year on the BBWAA ballot, 's vote percentage has just about doubled -- from 33.9% to 66.2% -- over the past five cycles. He's sitting at 83.0% in the tracker, which puts him in good position for election.

A player's vote percentage in the tracker is often greater than the actual final tally. For instance, Beltrán's final percentage in the tracker last year was 80.5%. He ended up at 70.3%. Jones' final percentage in the 2025 tracker was 72.4%. Once every ballot was counted, he was at 66.2%. If he experiences the same decline this year, Jones would still be elected to the Hall with a little room to spare, at 76.8%. He clears the 75% threshold in 93% of the simulations run by Sardell.

The owner of 10 Gold Gloves and 434 home runs, Jones ranked third in Baseball-Reference WAR (57.6) during his 10-year peak from 1998 through 2007. The two players in front of him? Rodriguez (80.0) and Bonds (71.0).

3. Utley is doing well in Year 3

has the third-highest vote percentage of the 27 players on this year's ballot. He's currently at 68.2% in the tracker, which would be a massive leap from his 2025 total of 39.8%. It's likely that Utley's vote percentage will settle somewhere in the low-to-mid-60s -- last year's final total was about 7 percentage points less than his tracker support -- but the longtime Phillies second baseman has time on his side; he will be eligible for the next seven BBWAA ballots.

Utley’s career bWAR of 64.6 ranks 15th all-time among second basemen, ahead of many who have already been inducted into the Hall -- and one who will be in Kent (55.4).

4. Who have been the biggest risers?

While Utley's jump is impressive, there are two starting pitchers who have made an even bigger surge.

, who was at 20.6% as a ballot newcomer last year, has a 56.5% vote percentage in the tracker. That huge improvement is highlighted by 46 votes from returning BBWAA members who didn't vote for King Félix in '25. Only one other player has received even 25 such new votes, and that's .

The five-time World Series champion has gained the support of 33 returning voters who didn't mark him on their 2025 ballot. He's at 57.4% in the tracker after finishing last year at 27.9%.

But there are obviously different levels of urgency with these two hurlers. Hernández is in just his second year on the ballot while Pettitte is in his eighth. The lefty has significant ground to cover before he gets to 75%, but after gaining 14.4 percentage points of support from 2024 to '25 -- the biggest increase among any ballot veteran -- Pettitte has a chance to complete a late climb to Cooperstown a la Larry Walker, who was at 34.1% after his eighth year on the ballot but was elected to the Hall in Year 10.

5. Which first-time candidates will stay on the ballot?

The Baseball Hall of Fame has welcomed four first-ballot inductees over the past two years, including Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia in 2025.

There won't be a first-timer in this year's class. The better question is: Which ballot newcomer will clear the 5% threshold to remain on the ballot in 2027? There is only one player over that line in the tracker: . The four-time All-Star is at 31.4%, which would be a pretty strong showing compared to where the aforementioned Hernández (20.6%) and Pettitte (9.9%) were after their first years on the ballot.

Hamels has been marked on 70 of the 223 ballots in the tracker. The other 11 first-timers on the ballot have received a combined total of 12 votes. Those have been spread between (six), (two), (one), (one), (one) and (one).

, , , and are still looking for their first vote in the tracker.

6. Who else is in danger of falling off the ballot?

is in his 10th year on the ballot, so this is the last time his Hall case will be assessed by the BBWAA. Although he has the numbers of a Cooperstown shoo-in -- 555 home runs, .312 career average, .996 OPS -- multiple violations of MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy late in his career have seemingly put a hard cap on Ramirez's Hall support. His vote percentage has been between 25% and 35% every year since 2020, and he is currently at 40.4% in the tracker. He will come in short of 75% once again. Ramirez's next opportunity for election won't come until at least 2028 via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.

is at 5.8% in the tracker and clinging to his candidacy in his sixth year on the ballot. But the nine-time Gold Glover has been here before. His final percentage in the tracker last year was 4.8%, but Hunter gained a little more support on ballots that weren't made public and barely cleared the cut line, finishing at 5.1%. He has a 95% chance of staying on the ballot for 2027, according to Sardell's latest projections.