How will the Mariners' newbies perform in 2023?

January 21st, 2023

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- The offseason has reached its final stretch. Most free agents have signed and most clubs, including the Mariners, have a good sense of their roster.

Whether it was the club being economical, player fits or other reasons, Seattle has stayed out of the free-agent frenzy that’s seen roughly $3.6 billion in contracts this offseason. The Mariners’ lone acquisitions in that market have been outfielder AJ Pollock (one year, $7 million) and reliever Trevor Gott (one year, $1.2 million), accounting for the third-lowest spending in free agency.

Their trades for Teoscar Hernández and Kolten Wong were objective upgrades from their predecessors, and with a pitching staff loaded with talent, there are signs that it’s a well-built roster. But their activity this offseason, or lack thereof, could hinge on many things going right. 

Here are a few questions that the club faces: 

Can Hernández replicate his elite power production? How about Wong?

Hernández swatted at least 25 homers in each of the past three full seasons -- in the shortened 2020, he crushed 16 home runs in 50 games -- and his .507 slugging percentage from 2019-22 ranked tied for 17th in baseball. He scorches the ball as well as anyone, filling a void that the Mariners sorely needed last year. He also should be motivated to produce with free agency on the horizon. 

It points to the potential of a highly productive player -- and Seattle will need no less after it opted not to match the Giants’ three-year, $43.5 million deal to Mitch Haniger and didn’t bring him back as an insurance piece. If Hernández, 30, experiences a production decline or injury, it’ll leave the lineup vulnerable, much like last year when Haniger missed three-plus months with a right high ankle sprain. 

Wong also enters a walk year and is coming off his two best offensive seasons, even if his defense dipped. The middle infield has more of a safety net with Dylan Moore, an above-average hitter last year, slated to back up Wong and shortstop J.P. Crawford. However, the transition from the NL Central, where Wong has spent his entire career, to the AL West, where travel is brutal, wasn’t seamless for Jesse Winker and Adam Frazier, both All-Stars one season before their lone years in Seattle. Wong finding his footing more quickly than those two will be vital.

Can Murphy stabilize the Mariners’ catching situation? 

Tom Murphy assumes a big leadership role after Haniger’s departure, though his playing time should diminish after Cal Raleigh’s breakout 2022. And that’s probably a good thing considering that Raleigh labored through a torn UCL in his left thumb for last season’s final three weeks. 

A safety net, especially one in Murphy who’s so embedded with the pitching staff, could be a big upgrade. Murphy slashed .303/.439/.455 (.894 OPS) with a 164 OPS+ (league average is 100) in 14 games before undergoing season-ending left shoulder surgery in 2022.

“Looking over the course of the season, you want to keep guys fresh,” manager Scott Servais said. “Having a versatile roster, having another catcher you can put in there so you don't have to run [Raleigh] out five out of six days or playing an entire week consecutively. How the backup catching position works out, we'll have some guys very capable of stepping in and catching 70 games, 65 games.”

Can the rotation stay healthy?

The Mariners didn’t lose a starter to the IL last year, a remarkable feat in today’s game, especially considering the career-high workloads of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, who each flashed top-of-the-rotation potential. Keeping those two healthy will be perhaps more vital to Seattle’s long-term sustainability than anything else.

“We’re slowing them down out of the gate,” president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told MLB Network this week. “We’re also going to do that with a couple of our young relievers who had high workloads last year. We have no intention of limiting their innings during the season, but we are going to slow them down in Spring Training.”

Should attrition surface, Seattle is equipped with reinforcements, including players that moved to the bullpen (Chris Flexen and Matt Brash) and top prospects nearing MLB (Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock).

Did they do enough this offseason?

In most fans’ estimation, no. The club will point to sky-high asking prices on other trade targets and the massive paydays some of the other free-agent fits netted. On Thursday, the Mariners did add lefty-hitting Tommy La Stella for infield depth, and he'll help spell Ty France and Eugenio Suárez.

If this roster is what the Mariners roll into Spring Training with, they like their chances -- but there are no doubt questions they face, especially in a division that’s gotten better.