8 early-season surprises that have held up

4:04 AM UTC

Every April brings its share of surprises. While most fade as the calendar turns, there are always some that have staying power.

With the 2026 campaign almost two months old and June on deck, we decided to take stock of the most surprising developments from the opening weeks of the season.

Here are eight that have proven to be more than just early-season noise.

All stats below are through Thursday.

The Rays are for real

The Rays finished below .500 in each of the past two years and were projected by FanGraphs for a last-place finish in the American League East entering ’26. There were lingering doubts about Tampa Bay’s viability even as the club entered May with an 18-12 record, given that mark came with a -1 run differential. It’s safe to say that’s no longer the case.

The Rays entered Friday with baseball’s best record at 33-15, including a 21-4 mark over their past 25 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 57 runs in that span while posting a 2.39 ERA, and they now look like a legitimate threat to win a division the Yankees seemed poised to dominate back in April.

Walker has finally arrived -- and the Cards are in the postseason picture

The 2026 campaign was supposed to kick off a rebuilding period for the Cardinals, who traded veterans , , and during the offseason. However, ’s long-awaited breakout -- along with rookie ’s strong debut -- has made the club’s lineup more formidable than expected.

Once one of the game’s most hyped young players, Walker saw his stock crater as he posted a .595 OPS across 2024-25. But this year, he’s looking like the hitter everyone thought he’d be, slashing .295/.366/.563 with 13 homers and 35 RBIs over 48 games. The 24-year-old has been even better in May (.969 OPS) than he was in March/April (.909), helping St. Louis remain firmly in the playoff mix.

Murakami, Martin are fueling an incredible White Sox turnaround

The White Sox lost 121 games in 2024, setting a Modern Era (since 1900) record in the process. They tallied 324 losses over the past three seasons combined, more than any other team in MLB. But things are starting to look up on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox entered Friday in possession of an AL Wild Card spot with a 25-24 record, having gone 14-7 in their past 21 games.

The biggest difference? Landing Japanese slugger on a two-year, $34 million deal that came in way below what many expected him to get in free agency. Murakami was a polarizing free agent, as he offered elite power potential but also came with significant concerns about his swing-and-miss profile. Indeed, he has struck out a lot so far, but that hasn’t stopped him from recording an AL-leading 17 homers with 39 walks, a .934 OPS and a 157 wRC+.

While Murakami has been the centerpiece of a much-improved White Sox offense, the club may also have found its ace in , who ranks third among MLB qualifiers in ERA (1.61) and fifth in FIP (2.39) over nine starts this season.

The Nats and Pirates have two of baseball’s best offenses

The Pirates had MLB’s lowest-scoring offense in 2025. The Nationals were a bit better, but still not very good. So it was quite a surprise when they both finished April among MLB’s highest-scoring clubs -- Washington at No. 2 and Pittsburgh at No. 10 in runs scored per game. Both teams have kept it up in May. In fact, the Nationals lead the Majors and the Pirates are tied for second in that department this month.

The 25-and-under trio of , and has done a lot of the damage for Washington, combining for 30 homers, 17 steals, 102 RBIs, 107 runs scored and an .867 OPS.

Pittsburgh’s surge has been propelled, in part, by a pair of offseason additions in (13 HR, .907 OPS) and (7 HR, .827 OPS), with (10 HR, 16 SB) also putting up big numbers. Highly touted rookie has started to come around, too, hitting .344 with three homers, 12 RBIs and a .911 OPS over his past 25 games after getting off to a slow start.

Langeliers has a historic catching season in his sights

After watching Cal Raleigh put together one of the greatest offensive seasons by a catcher in baseball history last year, we wondered in early April if was on the verge of another. At that point, the Athletics backstop had homered five times in his first six games after swatting 19 dingers in the second half of 2025 (and recording an additional seven homers in Spring Training this year).

Seven weeks later, Langeliers is hitting .321 with 12 homers, a .970 OPS and a 168 wRC+. Only seven catchers have had 40-plus homers in a season. Just four have won an AL or NL batting title. And only seven primary backstops have finished a campaign with a wRC+ of 160 or higher over 500 or more plate appearances. All of that remains in play for Langeliers this year.

Elder has given the Braves’ rotation a much-needed lift

The Braves’ rotation was decimated by injuries in 2025, and any hope the team might have had for a healthier season in ’26 went out the window in a hurry. , , and all went down during Spring Training, leaving Atlanta’s starting staff shorthanded going into Opening Day.

As a result, the club had little choice but to turn back to , who earned an All-Star selection in 2023 but came into ’26 with a 5.47 ERA over his previous 51 starts. It’s been a much different story this season, however, with Elder posting a 2.01 ERA over 62 2/3 innings for an Atlanta club that currently has the best record in the NL.

The NL Central is MLB’s strongest division from top to bottom

The most competitive division in baseball right now isn’t the AL East, as many would have predicted on Opening Day. Instead, the NL Central has been running circles around everyone else. Not only are all five clubs two games above .500 or better, but the NL Central also has posted a collective 110-80 record (.579) against teams from the other five divisions. That’s the best winning percentage any division has recorded against the other five this year, followed by the AL East at .528 (94-84) and then the NL East at .514 (95-90).

Preseason projections discounted the Brewers once again, but they currently occupy first place, which has become a familiar spot for them in recent years. Milwaukee traded its ace, , in the offseason, yet the rotation has held firm thanks in part to , who has emerged as one of the biggest surprises in baseball with a 1.77 ERA and an 11.6 K/9 rate. The left-hander has helped stabilize the group alongside flamethrower , giving the Brewers a strong one-two punch atop their starting staff.

The Cubs, who were the consensus preseason favorites in the NL Central, are right behind Milwaukee in the standings, and we’ve already touched on what the Cardinals and Pirates have been doing. The Reds, meanwhile, are just 1-9 in intradivision games but have gone 25-15 against all other teams.

(Expected) contenders continue to flounder

The Phillies were able to turn their season around quickly after a 9-19 start, and the Mets and Red Sox have begun to do the same. But many of April’s underachievers have not started to build any positive momentum yet.

The Blue Jays, Mariners and Tigers all reached the playoffs in 2025 -- Toronto played in the World Series -- and the Orioles, Royals, Astros and Giants each had legitimate aspirations of getting there in '26. However, those seven clubs all finished April at .500 or worse and haven’t recovered. Each of them has played sub-.500 ball in May, and only Seattle (68.9%) had playoff odds above 39.5% (per FanGraphs) as of Thursday.