It's the calm before the storm with the Draft, which is 23 days away. There were so many upsets in the NCAA Tournament that many top college talents' seasons ended earlier than expected. It's possible that only one first-rounder played in the Men's College World Series, and Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron exited after two games.
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There just hasn't been much new actionable intel in the past two to three weeks, though that should start to change once teams dig in on interviews and medicals at the MLB Draft Combine slated for June 23-26 at Chase Field in Phoenix. As one scouting director who picks in the bottom half of the first round said, "We usually have a pocket of three-four players to focus on by now, but this year it's more like 15."
The biggest news of late concerns UCLA right-hander Logan Reddemann, who was making a push to become the second college pitcher drafted until he missed his final six starts with what was described as arm fatigue. It's now known that he was dealing with a flexor strain before returning to the mound on Monday, when he looked good in a live batting-practice session at UCLA. He'll pitch again at the Combine next Wednesday.
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Our projections below carry through the first 40 choices to include the top selections for five clubs (Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers) that dropped down 10 places and out of the first round as a penalty for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive-balance tax in 2025. Detailed scouting reports, grades and video for all players mentioned can be found at MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 200 Prospects list.
1. White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (No. 1)
2. Rays: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech (No. 3)
3. Twins: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS (No. 2)
Let's group these three picks together because most teams assume the White Sox, Rays and Twins will take the consensus best three prospects at the top of the Draft. They're doing due diligence on other options, of course, and rumors persist that Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell could take a discount to go in the first five selections. But it will be an upset if the Draft doesn't kick off with Cholowsky, Emerson and Lackey going in one order or another. After reading the tea leaves and doing some fancy math, here are my percentages for each possible combination:
Cholowsky (CWS), Lackey (TB), Emerson (MIN): 26 percent
Cholowsky (CWS), Emerson (TB), Lackey (MIN): 24 percent
Emerson (CWS), Lackey (TB), Cholowsky (MIN): 21 percent
Emerson (CWS), Cholowsky (TB), Lackey (MIN): 19 percent
Lackey (CWS), Emerson (TB), Cholowsky (MIN): 5 percent
Lackey (CWS), Cholowsky (TB), Emerson (MIN): 5 percent
4. Giants: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep, Miami (No. 4)
As much as the Giants and the teams right behind them would love a crack at Cholowsky, Emerson or Lackey, that's unlikely to happen. So San Francisco will turn to the second tier of talent: Lombard, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora and Mississippi high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr. Some teams think Lombard may have the highest ceiling in the Draft while others worry about his hitting ability.
5. Pirates: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss. (No. 6)
There's chatter that the Pirates may not be as high on Lombard as other clubs and that they may not want a pitcher, which would make Booth the obvious choice.
6. Royals: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 5)
The Royals have stronger ties to high schoolers such as Booth, Lombard, Florida left-hander Gio Rojas and California two-way talent Jared Grindlinger than to collegians. Yet Flora and Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress could factor in here as well.
7. Orioles: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Unless Lombard or Booth slip out of the top six, the Orioles will turn to college bats such as Burress, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron and perhaps Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick. Burress has one of the highest floors in the college crop, while Lebron has the highest ceiling and Helfrick is the top defensive catcher.
8. Athletics: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas (No. 13)
The A's have zeroed in on college hitters, with Helfrick, Texas A&M second baseman Chris Hacopian and Burress at the front of the line. Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell and Lebron are two more candidates.
9. Braves: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. (No. 8)
The Braves could play this two ways: grab the best high school pitcher in Rojas and save some money to spend on the No. 26 choice, or pay full freight for college bats such as Burress, Helfrick or Hacopian.
10. Rockies: Derek Curiel, OF, Louisiana State (No. 12)
The Rockies appear to be hunting college hitters. Even if Burress and Helfrick are gone, Curiel, Bell, Hacopian and Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia would be attractive options. They also could be tempted to pull the second college pitcher off the board with Coastal Carolina right-hander Cameron Flukey, Florida righty Liam Peterson or maybe Arkansas left-hander Hunter Dietz.
11. Nationals: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M (No. 10)
The Nationals also could hop on the college bat train with Burress, Hacopian or Gracia. They have shown stronger interest in two-way prep catcher Jared Grindlinger than most clubs.
12. Angels: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida (No. 14)
In every Draft this decade, the Angels have spent their first-round pick on a collegian capable of advancing quickly, usually procuring a discount. Candidates include Peterson, Flukey, Dietz, Arizona State left-hander Cole Carlon and perhaps Reddemann among arms, and Curiel, Bell and Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese among bats.
13. Cardinals: AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia (No. 17)
While the Cardinals may cast a glance at Flukey or Peterson, they're probably going to grab a college hitter such as Helfrick, Hacopian, Curiel, Gracia or Reese.
14. Marlins: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State (No. 21)
Another club that appears to be targeting college bats, the Marlins could opt for Curiel, Reese, Gracia, Lebron or Texas Christian outfielder Sawyer Strosnider. If they select an arm, it likely would be Flukey or Tennessee right-hander Tegan Kuhns, and Grindlinger intrigues them as well.
15. Diamondbacks: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina (No. 11)
The Diamondbacks are casting a wide net. College pitchers (Flukey, Peterson, Dietz, Carlon) appear to be the front-runners, though they're also linked to college hitters (Hacopian, Curiel, Bell, Gracia), high school bats (Georgia outfielder Trevor Condon) and prep arms (Rojas).
16. Rangers: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky (No. 20)
This may be close to the floor for Bell and Lebron. The Rangers also could be the ceiling for Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins and California prep shortstop Tyler Spangler, a top-10 candidate before missing the entire season with a back injury.
17. Astros: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama (No. 9)
The Astros are connected to a variety of college bats, in part because they own the No. 28 selection as well. Lebron, Reese, Bell and Gracia are all prime candidates for their first choice, and Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson could be too after winning the Southeastern Conference triple crown and multiple national player of the year awards. They could try to wait until the supplemental first round on Jackson and outfielders Strosnider, Robbins and Zion Rose (Louisville).
18. Reds: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, Ga. (No. 22)
The next-best high school position player after the big three of Emerson, Lombard and Booth, Condon is climbing Draft boards and may not last much longer than this. Bell and Lebron also would be nice gets this late in the first round. This could be a realistic high-water mark for Dietz and the true ceiling for Massachusetts high school left-hander Brody Bumila.
19. Guardians: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS (No. 18)
Grindlinger seems certain to go in the top 20 picks and the Guardians are one of his leading suitors. Other possibilities include Reese, Condon, Strosnider and Mississippi prep third baseman/catcher Cole Prosek.
20. Red Sox: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS, Greenville, S.C. (No. 38)
If the first round unfolds like this, the Red Sox may be deciding between Lowrance and Dietz. They also have been associated with Reese, Grindlinger, Strosnider and Bumila.
21. Padres: Cole Prosek, 3B/C, Magnolia Heights HS, Senatobia, Miss. (No. 33)
If the industry's skittishness about taking high school arms in the first round causes Rojas to fall, he wouldn't get past the Padres. While they've also been tied to fellow prep southpaws Bumila, Carson Bolemon and Logan Schmidt, they're more apt to pop a high school bat such as Condon, Prosek or Illinois infielder Landon Thome (son of Hall of Famer Jim).
22. Tigers: Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS, Concord, Calif. (No. 49)
The Tigers play their cards close to the vest but have a definite type: high school position players who hit left-handed and possibly could play up the middle. Spangler fits that profile, as do Condon, Lowrance, California shortstops Archer Horn and James Clark, Prosek, Thome and Texas infielder Connor Comeau. So does New York shortstop Aiden Ruiz, a switch-hitter who's the best defender in the Draft.
23. Cubs: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian (No. 16)
It's no secret that the Cubs need pitching in the Majors and Minors, but they may not love the arms available to them near the end of the first round. That would mean shopping among bats such as Strosnider, Rose and Jackson from the college ranks and Lowrance from the prep class.
24. Mariners: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee (No. 24)
The Mariners could kick off a run on college arms with Kuhns, Dietz, Reddemann, Carlon and Mississippi right-hander Cade Townsend among the leading contenders. Condon would be attractive if he got this far.
25. Brewers: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas (No. 15)
The Brewers are perusing many of the same college pitchers as the Mariners and also have some interest in Strosnider and Rose.
Supplemental first round
26. Braves: Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA (No. 28)
27. Mets: Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas (No. 30)
28. Astros: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville (No. 31)
29. Giants: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C. (No. 23)
30. Royals: Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, Attleboro, Mass. (No. 19)
31. Diamondbacks: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State (No. 25)
32. Cardinals: Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook (N.Y.) School (No. 36)
33. Rays: Landon Thome, 2B/3B, Nazareth Academy, La Grange Park, Ill. (No. 37)
34. Pirates: Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS, Santa Rosa Beach, Fla. (No. 35)
35. Yankees: Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia (No. 39)
36. Phillies: Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi (No. 27)
37. Rockies: Mason Edwards, LHP, Southern California (No. 34)