In 2024, Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson appeared in the top five of all 30 ballots for the American League Most Valuable Player Award, finishing fourth in the voting behind only Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto.
Fast-forward two years, and Henderson’s name was nowhere to be found when 2026 MVP winners were announced Thursday night. That wasn’t a surprise, either: He posted a .225/.309/.403 slash line in ’26, almost 200 OPS points below his career-high mark in ’24. After two straight years of declining offensive production, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year isn’t a bad player by any means, but he’s nowhere near the superstar level he once reached.
While Henderson has fought through injuries in each of the past two seasons -- a left shoulder impingement in 2025 and a right wrist issue in ’26 -- there have been other reasons for his downturn. Here’s where Henderson has struggled and how he can become an MVP-caliber player once again.
Bat speed
There’s a high correlation between top-flight bat speed and offensive success. During his All-Star 2024, Henderson displayed some of the best bat speed in the Majors, sitting in a tie with the Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez for ninth at 76.2 mph. With any swing of at least 75 mph considered to be a “fast swing,” Henderson was routinely swinging hard and impacting the baseball.
That hasn’t been the case in the past two seasons, though, as Henderson’s bat speed has gone downhill. At 75.3 mph in 2025, he was tied for 20th in MLB; his 74.1 mph bat speed in ’26 was tied for 55th.
While that’s still above average, it’s a worrying trend, albeit one that can at least be partially explained by the arm injuries that plagued him over the past two years. But without that elite bat speed, Henderson is struggling to make as much solid contact. His squared-up rate per swing -- measuring how much potential exit velocity was attained -- dipped from 25.1% in both 2024 and ’25 to just 22.6% in 2026. That ranked in the 29th percentile among big league hitters.
It’s a bit simplistic to say Henderson must simply regain the excellent bat speed he once had, as that is easier said than done. But at 25 years old on Opening Day 2027, Henderson is only entering his physical prime, and with good health, he should be able to recoup some of the power he has lost.
Hitting fastballs
The decrease in Henderson’s bat speed is at least part of the reason why the Orioles shortstop struggled considerably against fastballs in 2026. After batting .305 with a .444 slugging percentage against heaters in 2025, Henderson hit only .233 against fastballs with a .401 SLG in ’26. Against four-seamers in particular, he hit just .169 with a .291 SLG, good for a -11 batter run value that was tied for the ninth worst in the Majors.
Curiously, it wasn’t a problem of handling top-end velocity: Henderson actually fared slightly better against 95+ mph heat than against sub-95 mph four-seamers. That could be a result of a slight change to his position in the batter’s box between 2024-26.
Henderson’s starting depth in batter’s box, 2024-26
2024: 24.9 inches
2025: 26.7 inches
2026: 27.7 inches
Henderson can rectify things in 2026 by once again taking advantage of the poorly located fastballs he used to crush. After swinging at 79.7% of fastballs down the middle in his first four seasons, he offered at just 90 of 143 such heaters in 2026 (62.9%). That rate ranked 19th lowest of the 288 batters to see at least 50 middle-middle fastballs in 2026, a sign of Henderson’s waning aggressiveness.
Plate discipline
Henderson’s reticence to swing at meatballs was one of the clearest signs of a poor season in terms of plate discipline, which had previously been of little concern for the burgeoning star.
While his 22.2% strikeout rate was right on par with his 22.1% mark from 2024, the problem ran deeper than just K’s. Henderson not only laid off hittable pitches but proved prone to expanding the strike zone, running his chase rate to a career-worst 30.4% and dipping below league average in that category for the first time in his career. By comparison, his 23.2% chase rate in ’24 ranked in the 84th percentile in MLB.
Late in the season, Henderson told MLB.com’s Jake Rill he felt like he was “doing too much in certain situations” or “trying to force stuff to happen,” assessments that help explain his uncharacteristic season at the plate.
Tightening up his approach and once again being more selective could go a long way toward putting Henderson back among MLB’s very best hitters.
2027 outlook
Even without reaching his offensive ceiling, Henderson remains a valuable player: He was an above-average baserunner (+3 run value) and a plus defender by Outs Above Average (+1) in 2026, according to Statcast. Henderson racked up 4.8 FanGraphs WAR in 2025 and 3.6 fWAR in ’26, so he remains one of the better everyday players in the big leagues.
Accruing 7.9 fWAR during his MVP-caliber 2024, Henderson is clearly capable of much more when his bat is clicking. A big offensive year from him could do wonders for the rest of the Orioles lineup and could propel the team to the postseason, and Baltimore hopes for the best for its star shortstop in 2027.
“I fully expect he’s going to have a much better season this year,” Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said at this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas. “We’re certainly going to do everything we can to work with his camp and support his offseason development.
"He’ll be back in the saddle.”