TORONTO -- Even more so than any forays into free agency, the best signal of the Orioles’ direction this winter might be the decisions they make regarding John Means, who will be arbitration-eligible for the first time and due a significant raise. With his third big league season concluding with Saturday's 10-1 loss to the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, Means is no longer an ascendant rookie. He is the Orioles’ unquestioned ace, the main success story produced by their current rebuilding plan on the pitching side.

• Box score

That remains true despite the loss in Toronto, where Means allowed seven runs, six earned, in three innings to finish 2021 with easily the worst start of what was an up-and-down season. But even classifying his ‘21 as such -- as Orioles officials, and Means himself, have -- speaks to Means’ exalted place in Baltimore’s present and future plans. When the dust settled Sunday, Means’ ‘21 read like a carbon copy, statistically, of his surprise ‘19 campaign. One main distinction was Means’ May 5 no-hitter in Seattle, which capped a dominant eight-stretch start for the left-hander.

“I just tried to give everything I had today, and it wasn’t very much,” said an audibly congested Means, who pitched Sunday with a severe cold. “It’s hard for me to look back after this one and be satisfied, but I’m happy I made it through.”

Said O’s manager Brandon Hyde: “He gave us everything he had today. He gave us everything he had this year. This is a small blip on Meansy’s season.”

All told, Means finished 6-9 with 3.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 134 strikeouts and 30 home runs across 26 starts. The home runs are tied for seventh most in the Majors, but his WHIP ranks as the lowest by an Orioles starter (minimum 140 innings) this century. His ERA, ERA+ and FIP were nearly identical to his ‘19 metrics, when Means placed second in American League Rookie of the Year Award voting.

He pitched to a 4.53 ERA over a 10-start sample in 2020, then looked like one of baseball’s elite starters early this season before landing on the injured list with shoulder issues. Means wound up missing two months, during which the Orioles’ pitching woes exacerbated in his absence -- Baltimore’s rotation ERA was 7.54 in that 35-game stretch, easily the worst in baseball. It has improved by about two runs since Means returned on July 20, even as it took him some time to rediscover the feel for his signature changeup. He pitched to a 5.40 ERA during an eight-start stretch through August, then 2.76 in five September starts before Saturday’s clunker. If you toss away his season finale, Means’ ‘21 would’ve ranked among the most productive seasons by an Orioles starter since '00.

“I am really proud I made it through three years, after the way I came up,” Means said. “To complete three years in the big leagues was my goal from Day One. I look back and I’m satisfied, but obviously I have some things to work on in the offseason.”

Saturday’s loss was the Orioles’ 109th, the third most in franchise history, trailing only the 2018 Orioles (115) and 1939 St. Louis Browns (111). The latest kept Baltimore in the running for next year’s top overall Draft pick; it remains one loss behind Arizona for the Majors’ worst record. To secure the No. 1 pick, the Orioles must lose Sunday while the D-backs, who host the Rockies on Saturday night, win their final two games.

• Stowers a fast riser in Orioles' system

If nothing else, Means is living proof that talent doesn’t only come from the top of the Draft. The former 11th-round pick out of West Virginia (his matchup against fellow Mountaineer Alek Manoah on Saturday marked the first between WVU alumni in MLB history) was not considered a prospect when he emerged from the periphery of the Orioles’ roster in 2019, first into a rotation mainstay and then an All-Star. He almost certainly would’ve been one again had shoulder trouble not interfered in June, sending Means to the injured list for the fourth time in his still-short career.

That injury could chip away at Means’ value if the Orioles decide to dangle him on the trade market this winter, as they’ve done -- without pulling the trigger -- each of the past two winters. But he remains both a lodestar of Baltimore’s rebuild and one of its most valuable trade chips, under club control through 2024. And the unlikeliness of his climb -- whatever the final figure, his upcoming raise projects in the multiple seven figures -- is underscored by just how many pitchers the Orioles shuffled through his former roster spot over the same time.

Of the 42 total arms Baltimore used in 2021, Means is the only one all but assured of the same role in '22. Unless he’s dealt, it’ll be atop the Orioles' rotation.

“Looking back on his year, it was an amazing start to the year,” Hyde said. “The first month or two, he was one of the better pitchers in the game. Coming off of the injury, he was a little inconsistent for him. He had trouble finding his changeup in the second half -- some starts it would be there, some starts it wouldn't. Still, he gave us a chance to win every start out, even without his best stuff. So if you look at the body of work, he has a 3-something ERA in the American League East, without always having his best stuff. He has pitched at times this year like an All-Star-type pitcher. Every time out this season, he’s given us a chance to win, and that’s what a Major League starter does.”