The Yankees are going to be without Aaron Judge for a while, perhaps all the way into August. It’s no secret that leaves quite a hole in the Bronx, from his physical 6-foot-7 frame to his three-time MVP bat and his superstar presence in the game’s biggest market.
But what kinds of ripple effects will this injury -- a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side -- have on the Yankees, the AL East and more scenarios around MLB? The Postseason picture in the AL is wide open, and the Yankees have proven to be a much different team over the years when Judge is not in the lineup.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Yankees are 453-316 (.589 win percentage) with Judge in the lineup, scoring 4.9 runs per game with a team .757 OPS, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Without? The record plummets to 45-58 (.437 win percentage), while scoring 3.8 runs per game with a team .672 OPS. Albeit in a smaller sample, those numbers are eye-popping.
Then again, it may be OK. In 2019, the Yankees slugger missed 60 games and the club went 42-18 without him. Of course, the team was much different then, with DJ Lemahieu, Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman and Gary Sánchez helping buoy the offense. Perhaps the breakout of Ben Rice and a strong year from Cody Bellinger can help the 2026 team stay afloat.
For now, let’s dive into some of the potential waves Judge’s injury could create.
Spencer Jones gets his big chance
Remember how we said Judge’s absence would be felt physically? Well, maybe it actually won’t be, with fellow 6-foot-7 outfielder Spencer Jones reportedly getting the call in Judge’s place on Friday.
Jones, New York’s No. 6 prospect, got his first cup of coffee in the big leagues earlier this season, slashing .167/.259/.167 with two RBIs in 10 games. His power is prodigious, but that comes with some concern for strikeouts, as he had 12 K’s to three walks in his first MLB stint. Jones is additionally a solid defender who made starts in center field, right field and at DH.
For quite some time now, the Yankees’ impressive 25-year-old prospect has been waiting for his chance because New York’s outfield has been jam-packed with established players. The circumstances are less than ideal, but Jones should get some runway to prove whether he’s ready to break through after continuing to crush Triple-A pitching.
AL Central gets a chance to feast
It certainly wouldn’t be your first guess, but the biggest benefactors of Judge’s extended absence could be … teams from the AL Central? The Central is completely up for grabs, with the Guardians currently leading the pack with 10.5 games separating them from the last-place Royals, who are only 5.5 out of the Wild Card.
Including this week’s series loss to Cleveland, the Judge-less Yankees face AL Central teams in seven of 16 series in June and July, compared to just three against AL East foes. That includes the Guardians twice, the Tigers twice, the White Sox twice and the Twins once.
The AL Central crown may, oddly enough, run through the Bronx this summer. Or, at the very least, those teams could potentially use the Yankees to help themselves separate from a logjam in the AL Wild Card.
Rays now have a clear path to division
Tampa Bay still owns the AL’s best record at 36-23, a half-game ahead of the Yankees in what is shaping up to be a thrilling division race. The Rays also should get at least one massive series without the Captain on the opposing side, traveling to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set in early July.
Can the Rays use this chance to run away with the East?
Wide-open MVP race?
The AL MVP discussion, with Shohei Ohtani now in the NL, has pretty much started and ended with Aaron Judge the past couple of years -- even as Cal Raleigh made an incredible run at it in 2025.
That may not be the case with Judge set to miss such a significant chunk of the season. And it’s possible that Judge, who was already having a down season by his astronomical standards, wasn’t the favorite to begin with.
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is having a resurgent year now that he’s healthy, while Bobby Witt Jr. is always lurking and the aforementioned Rice is becoming one of MLB’s best hitters. Maybe Nick Kurtz or Mike Trout could make a run, too. It should be fun to watch.
Let’s make a deal?
It would be shocking to see the Yankees jump the trade market as an immediate reaction to Judge’s injury. But closer to the Aug. 3 Deadline, this shakeup could make New York more of a player in the outfield market than originally expected.
Perhaps Byron Buxton, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak or a handful of others could make sense.