Can Yanks ride homer surge to World Series?

August 30th, 2019

Everybody knows this is a home run time in baseball. Everybody can see it’s another home run season, one in which teams will again hit more home runs in a season that at any other time in history. The Yankees set the team record last season with 267, and they are likely going to fly past that number in September -- even in a season when , who once hit 59 in a season for the Marlins, has hit just one because of injuries and , who has gotten hot lately, had just 18 coming into the weekend because of his own injury issues earlier in the year.

The Yankees have hit more home runs in August alone (70) than any team has hit in a calendar month. They had 250 for the season heading into their weekend series against the A’s, and guess what? That number wasn't even the most in baseball this season, because the Twins had 261.

The Twins are first in the American League Central. The Yankees are first, by a lot, in the AL East. The Dodgers and Astros, with whom the Yanks are competing to see who ends up with the best record going into the postseason, rank third (232) and fourth (229), respectively.

But what is interesting, if you look back over this decade in baseball, is that the team with the most home runs doesn’t end up winning the World Series.

In fact, the last team to hit more home runs than anybody during the regular season and win it all in October was the 2009 Yankees. Nobody has done it since.

I called the Elias Sports Bureau on Thursday -- they know everything! -- because I was curious about the correlation between homers and winning a World Series. This is the list I was given:

Not only are the 2009 Yankees the last to do it, the Astros in '17 were the last team to finish in the Top 5 in homers and win it all. You bet the Yanks were going up against one of the great regular-season teams when they faced the Sox in the ’18 AL Division Series. But after that record-breaking number of home runs in the regular season, New York hit four in four games against Boston, and three of them -- one by Judge, two by -- came in Game 2. It was the only game the Yankees got from the Red Sox. The remaining homer was from Judge in the Yanks' Game 1 loss at Fenway Park.

Nobody would suggest that the number of homers hit by the Twins and Yankees -- who are going to finish first and second in homers in 2019, unless the Dodgers or Astros have the kind of power surge in September that the Yanks just had in August -- are some kind of disqualifier for actually winning the World Series in a home run world. Not only have the Yankees hit a ton, but Judge has also gotten hot, though no one is quite sure when Stanton will return as he rehabs from his latest injury, a posterior anterior ligament strain. Here’s manager Aaron Boone's less-than-glowing report from the other day on Stanton:

“I would say he’s probably getting pretty close to seeing some pitching. We’ll see how we do that, whether we send him down to Tampa, get him live at-bats or whatever. I would say he’s probably at least getting close to that.”

But the Yankees keep going deep without Stanton as they keep chasing the Twins for the top ranking. Twelve Yankees, including , have now had multiple home run games this season. If somebody had told you in Spring Training that entering September, Judge and Stanton would have combined for fewer than 20 home runs, you would have laughed at the idea that the Yankees could break last season’s record. But they’re going to.

And they're probably going to hit 300 home runs this season.

It’s a pretty amazing number. So are the numbers in our list of World Series winners. The Giants have won three championships in this decade, and they were never close to being the home run leaders. Nor were the Royals in 2015. The Giants, before the sport went home run crazy over the past five years, finished last in home runs in '12. .(By July of this year, teams had hit more runs this season than teams did in all of ’14.) The Red Sox, who won 108 last season and then went 11-3 against the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in October, finished ninth in home runs.

There are all sorts of reasons about what happens to swing-and-miss teams in the postseason, starting with the caliber of pitching they face in every game. The 2017 Yankees hit 241 home runs, and then when they got to the AL Championship Series, they scored three runs in the four games they lost to the Astros at Minute Maid Park. None of this means they can’t win it all this time. In so many ways, this is the most appealing and entertaining Yankees team since 1998. But maybe New York fans shouldn’t be rooting for their team to hit more homers than Minnesota when it’s all said and done -- just to be on the safe side.