These injury recoveries will be most impactful in the second half

July 14th, 2023

Over the next few weeks, you'll see some contenders look elsewhere during the Trade Deadline to try to bolster their roster. But for some teams, those roster reinforcements will come internally in the form of a player returning from injury.

That said, not every returning player is the same. Here's a look at the 13 players whose injury returns will define the second half, ranked from closest to furthest from returning.

Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Expected return: Mid-July (right oblique strain)

A Minor League rehab stint is on the horizon for Alvarez, who strained his oblique while swinging a bat on June 8. Prior to getting hurt, Alvarez was on an MVP pace (.277/.388/.589, 17 HR, 55 RBIs) and earned his second career All-Star nod. While the Astros have gone 14-15 in Alvarez’s absence, they’ve gained 2 ½ games on the Rangers, and are just two games back in the AL West. The team has used Corey Julks and Yanier Diaz at DH and Chas McCormick at left field in Alvarez’s absence.

Max Fried, Braves
Expected return: End of July (left forearm strain)

Just in case the Braves couldn’t get any better, Fried (2-1, 2.08 ERA) seems primed to return by the end of the month. He began his Minor League rehab assignment on July 9 for Triple-A Gwinnett against Omaha, throwing 35 pitches (18 strikes) in 1 1/3 scoreless innings. Fried, who missed two weeks at the start of the season after spraining his ankle on Opening Day, is 37-15 with a 2.64 ERA in 74 starts since the beginning of 2020 and finished second in the NL Cy Young Award race last year.

Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Expected return: Late July or early August (right shoulder strain)

After missing more than three months with a sub-scapular muscle strain, Woodruff is itching closer to an MLB return after throwing a bullpen on Thursday, the third bullpen he's thrown on his road back from recovery. Woodruff initially only thought he’d miss two weeks, but an MRI revealed the true severity of the injury. The two-time All-Star allowed one run in his two starts this season, and should be a boon for a Brewers’ rotation that’s been kept afloat by journeymen Colin Rea and Julio Teheran.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays
Expected return: Late July or early August (Tommy John surgery)

Ryu, who underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022, made his first game appearance in more than a year when he allowed one run in three innings in the Florida Complex League. He also struck out five in 42 pitches. His velocity was at 88 mph, which is a tick below where he was at last season. Kevin Gausman and José Berríos are the only members of the Blue Jays rotation with an ERA below 4.00, but it’s hard to believe Ryu won’t start the season with a strict pitch count.

Trevor Story, Red Sox
Expect return: August (right UCL surgery)

The 30-year-old, who has been out the entirety of the season after undergoing an internal bracing procedure to repair his right elbow in January, is throwing from 160-170 feet, and could be in line for a rehab assignment at some point during August. Still, there’s no telling how his arm will recover from the surgery, so there’s a chance he could end up playing DH before he goes back to shortstop, which he told reporters in June. But Boston, fighting to stay in the AL Wild Card race, could use help at short, as the club entered the break last in the Majors with -1.1 WAR from that position, per FanGraphs.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins
Expected return: TBD (left oblique strain)

At this time last year, Chisholm was fresh off his first All-Star appearance. This year, he’s looking to restart his season for a second time. He was placed on the IL on July 3 after he felt “super crampy” on a swing the day prior. While there isn’t a timetable for his injury, the strain is considered mild, so it’s now just a matter of seeing how he recovers. The 25-year-old missed six weeks earlier in the season due to turf toe, and is hitting .246 with nine home runs and 21 RBIs through 45 games this season. While Fangraphs gives the Marlins a 74% chance of making the postseason, Chisholm’s return would add some speed and pop to their lineup.

Lodolo and Greene get a dual entry because both of their returns are equally important to the Reds. Both pitchers are at the team complex in Goodyear, Ariz., and seemed set for mid-August returns so long as there are no setbacks. Despite only getting 107 2/3 innings out of the starting duo, the Reds are within striking distance in the NL Central, but only have one healthy starter (Andrew Abbott) with an ERA under 3.80, and three starters with ERA over 5.00.

Royce Lewis, Twins 
Expected return: No sooner than Mid-August (strained left oblique)

The start of Lewis’ career has been a series of stops and starts. And, unfortunately for the 24-year-old, there have been a lot more stops than starts. After only playing in 12 games last season before tearing his ACL, Lewis played in 26 games this season before ending up back on the shelf with an oblique injury he sustained running to first base. Lewis has had a strong season, (131 OPS+ in 26 games this season), and his return would go a long way towards helping the Twins win the mediocre AL Central.

Mike Trout, Angels
Expected return: Possibly August (left hamate fracture)

On July 3, the Los Angeles Angels were 45-42 with 30% odds to make the playoffs per FanGraphs. Then Trout sustained a hamate fracture on a swing, and things bottomed out. Without Trout, the Angels went 0-4, which was part of a stretch where they lost nine out of 10. The Angels entered the All-Star break with a losing record and a 10% chance to make the postseason. With Trout out for another six or seven weeks, the Angels will need to catch fire out of the break to quiet the noise around Shohei Ohtani’s status going into the Trade Deadline.

John Means, Orioles
Expected return: Potentially August (Tommy John surgery)

It’s easy to forget about Means. The last time he appeared for the Orioles (April 13, 2022), Adley Rutschman had yet to make his MLB debut and the Orioles were coming off a 52-win season. But in the left-hander’s last full season (2021), he had a 3.62 ERA and threw a no-hitter against the Mariners. Means was initially supposed to return in July, but sustained a strain to his left teres major in late May, which pushed his timeline back to August. Both he and general manager Mikes Elias said they were optimistic he’d pitch this season.

Aaron Judge, Yankees
Expected return: Possibly August (right great toe sprain)

Judge, who sustained the injury making a catch against the Dodgers on June 3, has already ruled out having mid-season surgery on the toe. He’s received two PRP injections on the toe, and Aaron Boone said earlier this month that Judge was “moving in the right direction.” The reigning AL MVP’s return can’t come soon enough for the Yankees, as they’ve posted the lowest batting average (.218), lowest on-base percentage (.288) and third-fewest runs (117) since he got hurt, which led to the dismissal of hitting coach Dillon Lawson on July 9.

Mitch Haniger, Giants
Expected return: Late August/early September (right forearm fracture)

Haniger sustained a right forearm fracture after he was struck with an 88.8 mph sinker from Jack Flaherty on June 13, and he underwent successful surgery a day later, which will keep him out about 10 weeks. Haniger, who missed the first 21 games of the season with an oblique strain, signed a three-year, $43.5 million deal with the Giants in the offseason. The Giants have cycled between Blake Sabol, Austin Slater and LaMonte Wade Jr. in left field in Haniger’s absence for a team that enters the second half in control of a Wild Card spot.

Triston McKenzie, Guardians
Expected return: Mid-September (right UCL sprain)

It’s safe to say this year hasn’t gone as planned for McKenzie, who missed the first two months of the season with a right teres major strain. After two starts in June, he ended up back on the shelf with a UCL sprain that’s put the rest of his season in jeopardy. McKenzie elected to avoid surgery, and will likely need six weeks to build himself back up. A good comp is teammate Shane Bieber, who suffered a similar injury in June 2021 but activated in time to make two three-inning starts before the end of the season. Even that could make a difference for the Guardians, who entered the break leading the AL Central by a half-game.