Clayton Kershaw's retirement announcement reminded me of how he might have gone to the Tigers (one pick ahead of the Dodgers) in the 2006 Draft if Los Angeles had been able to sign Luke Hochevar the year before. I explained how in a 2020 story about Draft picks who got away.
Now back to the present and your prospect questions ...
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The Arizona Fall League is one of my favorite destinations every year, and I'm excited about being there when the season opens on Oct. 6. The rosters are as loaded as usual, with 13 Top 100 Prospects and two of the top five in shortstops Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) and Sebastian Walcott (Rangers). The last time two phenoms with such acclaim played in the AFL was in 2011, when Bryce Harper and Mike Trout teamed up on the Scottsdale Scorpions.
We tackled this question in this week's Pipeline Podcast, limiting it to the three most significant Fall League Awards. I went with McGonigle, the best pure hitter in the Minors, as MVP and Dodgers outfielder Josue De Paula, a budding Yordan Alvarez, as Offensive Player of the Year. Jonathan Mayo countered with Rockies first baseman Charlie Condon as MVP and Phillies shortstop Aidan Miller as OPOY.
Pitcher of the Year is much trickier because teams don't send many top mound prospects to Arizona and they don't always stay for the entire six-week season. My choice is Rangers right-hander Jose Corniell, who has bounced back from Tommy John surgery last summer to post a 1.59 ERA and 29/3 K/BB ratio in 28 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Jonathan went with Diamondbacks right-hander Jacob Steinmetz, who's also coming off reconstructive elbow surgery.
As an Inbox bonus, I'll predict the rest of the on-field award winners: Marlins shortstop Starlyn Caba (Defensive Player of the Year), Astros outfielder Zach Cole (Breakout Player of the Year) and Rangers right-hander Emiliano Teodo (Reliever of the Year). I'm taking the easy way out with Teodo, who won Reliever of the Year honors in 2023 after striking out 19 in 11 scoreless innings.
The obvious answer is Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who should just barely retain his prospect status by the end of the season. He has been New York's best pitcher since coming to the big leagues in mid-August, logging a 1.19 ERA, .194 opponent average and 40/12 K/BB ratio in 37 2/3 innings over six starts. He has kept big leaguers off balance by running his mid-80s sweeper and mid-90s sinker to opposite sides of the plate, and his mid-80s changeup has been surprisingly effective.
McLean is lined up to start the playoff opener if the Mets want him to -- and they should. Other prospects to watch in the postseason include Blue Jays right-hander Trey Yesavage, Red Sox left-handers Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, and Astros outfielder Zach Cole.
The Orioles' Samuel Basallo, currently No. 8 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, will enter 2026 as baseball's best catching prospect. He should graduate to the big leagues next year, as should several more of our highest-rated backstops: Harry Ford (Mariners), Moisés Ballesteros (Cubs), Jeferson Quero (Brewers), Carter Jensen (Royals) and Joe Mack (Marlins).
Rainiel Rodriguez (Cardinals) is my gut-feel pick to rank as the game's best catching prospect by the end of next season. His defense is still a work in progress but he slashed .276/.399/.555 with 20 homers in 84 games while advancing from Rookie ball to High-A at age 18. He reminds me of a shorter version of Basallo with less arm strength at the same stage of their careers.
Other young catching prospects to watch include Alfredo Duno (Reds), Blake Mitchell (Royals) and Eduardo Tait (Twins).
MLB will conduct the annual Draft Lottery at the Winter Meetings, as usual. For the second straight year, the team with the worst record in baseball will be ineligible to receive a lottery pick, defined as a top-six selection.
Clubs that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't land a lottery pick for more than two years in a row, while those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Teams that are ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.
The Rockies are 41-112 and have lost 16 more games than any other club, but they are a revenue-sharing recipient that drafted No. 3 in 2024 and No. 4 this July, so they're out. So are two non-recipients, the Nationals and Angels, who owned the top two selections in the 2025 Draft.
The lottery is set up to give the teams with the three worst records an equal chance (16.5 percent) at the No. 1 pick. The Nationals have the third-worst record in baseball, and with them and the Rockies out of play, the White Sox will have the best odds (27.7 percent) for the first selection in 2026 after being ineligible this year despite losing a record 121 games in 2024. One more White Sox victory or Pirates defeat will guarantee Chicago the worst record among 2026 lottery-eligible clubs.