ST. PETERSBURG -- After two disappointing years, the Rays are back in the postseason and back atop the toughest division in baseball.
The Rays became the first team in the American League to clinch a playoff spot on Sept. 11, when they beat the Astros in their series opener at Tropicana Field. It was the earliest Tampa Bay has ever secured a spot in the postseason.
On Tuesday, they secured an American League East title for the fifth time in franchise history -- and the first time since 2021 -- with a 6-1 win at Yankee Stadium.
Both outcomes felt inevitable for some time, as the Rays have spent most of this season as the AL’s best team. And it is not the end of the road, because they now have their sights set on capturing the franchise’s elusive first World Series championship.
But they accomplished their regular-season goals. What’s next? Here are a few things to consider.
What could the postseason roster look like?
This is purely a projection based on what we know right now, which means we have to make some assumptions regarding players who are currently injured. Obviously, a lot can and will change as the Rays get healthier and get closer to their first postseason series. Plus, keep in mind that teams can reset their rosters after each round.
C: Liam Hicks, Nick Fortes
1B: Jonathan Aranda
2B: Richie Palacios, Ben Williamson
SS: Taylor Walls, Jorge Mateo
3B: Junior Caminero
OF: Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins, Jonny DeLuca, Ryan Vilade, Victor Mesa Jr.
DH: Yandy Díaz
SP: Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Freddy Peralta
RP: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser, Manuel Rodríguez, Brody Hopkins, Ty Johnson, Griffin Jax, Ian Seymour
What could change with that roster projection?
The position player group seems mostly set, because it's the same 14 players who are finishing the season on the active roster. But there are some questions to answer on the pitching side.
Rehabbing starter Shane McClanahan is unlikely to be ready in time for the AL Division Series, manager Kevin Cash said, and the Rays don't know his availability beyond that. But they are hoping to get back Wells, who has said all along that he plans to be ready for the postseason. It's less clear if lefty Garrett Cleavinger will be ready, but he is throwing bullpen sessions.
The Rays must also make a decision regarding Rodríguez, who has rejoined the team but is not yet active, and converted pitching prospects Hopkins and Johnson. Is their big-time stuff ready for the postseason stage? What would that mean for pitchers like right-handers Cole Sulser and Casey Legumina and lefty Steven Matz, who have played key roles all season?
The above roster is also built with the assumption that the Rays will carry 14 position players and only 12 pitchers. That is typically the split teams gravitate toward in a short postseason series.
The Rays will need only three starters to get through a best-of-five AL Division Series, due to the number of days off in that round this year. They already have five to choose from in Rasmussen, Martinez, Peralta, Jax and Seymour, with the first three seeming most likely to front the rotation.
Seymour and Jax have pitched out of the bullpen, and it makes sense to keep someone capable of pitching like a starter in case there’s an early injury or an extra-inning game. But maybe it’s not the most efficient decision to carry both, since they’ve been working as starters for most of the season and aren’t conditioned for daily bullpen outings.
What is the postseason schedule?
This one is much easier to answer! Click here for MLB’s full postseason schedule.
Two key dates to consider, though: The AL Wild Card Series begins on Tuesday, Sept. 29, and the Rays will begin play in the ALDS on Saturday, Oct. 3.
Will they get a first-round bye?
Yes. They won the AL East and clinched the No. 1 seed in the AL, bypassing the Wild Card Series round and advancing straight to the ALDS.
Will they have home-field advantage?
Yes. They will have home-field advantage in the ALDS and AL Championship Series. Home-field advantage in the World Series would depend on the regular-season record of their opponent. Regardless, there is guaranteed to be postseason baseball at Tropicana Field, where Tampa Bay went 55-26 during the regular season.
Who will they face?
Stay tuned. If the season ended today, the Rays’ ALDS opponent would be the winner of a Wild Card Series between the Yankees and Red Sox.
How could they line up their rotation for the first series?
They’ll have basically a week to set up their rotation however they want for the ALDS. The beauty of that round this year is that they would need only three starters, because the first two could pitch on regular rest in Games 4 and 5.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Rasmussen isn’t pitching one of the first games of the series, given how dominant he has been all season. After that, the Rays have plenty of options in Martinez and Peralta, plus Jax (who has been excellent as a starter) and Seymour.
Martinez has given the Rays a chance to win nearly every time he has taken the mound this season, while Peralta has been excellent in his past few starts and has a track record as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
What is the Rays’ recent postseason history?
This is the Rays' 10th trip to the postseason since their renaissance in 2008, but their first time in the playoffs since '23. The Rays haven’t won a postseason series since '20, when they won three before losing to the Dodgers in the World Series.
The Rays were swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Rangers in 2023 and by the Guardians in '22. They lost to the Red Sox, 3-1, in the '21 ALDS. They won the '19 AL Wild Card Game but lost a five-game ALDS against the Astros in their first trip to the postseason since going four times in six years from 2008-13.