Rockies looking to find 1st-round success with No. 10 overall pick

DENVER -- The improved Rockies offense over the past month offers a window into the new front office's philosophy regarding the upcoming MLB Draft.

"We've got to score runs, and we had, generally, a very good month," general manager Josh Byrnes said. "We did it in all ways. We had a long lineup, we were able to get hits, we had better quality at-bats and we slugged. That produces runs, so you need all of it.

"The other aspects -- defense, baserunning and positional versatility -- matter, too. We hit on a lot of these things in terms of going out for a month and scoring runs. Hopefully, we can do it over six months and it's a sustainable thing."

Byrnes, president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta and assistant general manager Tommy Tanous bring a wealth of Draft knowledge gained with other clubs. Vice president of scouting Danny Montgomery and senior vice president of scouting operations Marc Gustafson, who have run recent Drafts, continue in a collaborative effort.

The idea is to improve a drafting program that has had mixed results in recent years. Two-time All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman (fourth round, 2021), third baseman Kyle Karros (fifth round, 2023) and center fielder Cole Carrigg (second round, 2023) -- who just made his MLB debut on June 9 -- are recently selected gems.

Those recent Draft classes are open to criticism because righty Gabriel Hughes (2022) is the only first-round pick currently on the active 26-man roster.

The lack of first-round success is mitigated because righty Chase Dollander (ninth overall pick in 2023) was moving to the front of the rotation before undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery. Outfielders Jordan Beck and Sterlin Thompson (both first-rounders in 2022) have been part of the team this year, though each is at Triple-A Albuquerque working his way back.

The Rockies could see more success soon, with outfielder/first baseman Charlie Condon (2024) and outfielder Zac Veen (2020) succeeding in Triple-A.

But pitchers Riley Pint and Robert Tyler (both in 2016) and outfielder Benny Montgomery (2021) have retired, with Pint having reached the Majors briefly and Montgomery not at all during an injury-filled career. Lefty pitcher Ryan Rolison (2018) is with the Cubs, and first baseman Michael Toglia (2019) is in the Reds' organization.

The Rockies are working on models that make success easier to predict, a process that will evolve.

"There are a few ways to look at it," Byrnes said. "One is historical odds that we are always studying. Two is this year's Draft class, what's available to you. I still think it's taking the best player available. I don't think imbalancing toward pitchers or position players is the right way to go."

And there is also the element of predicting which pitchers can succeed in Denver's altitude.

"Pitching is its own riddle," Byrnes said. "We would deem why they are good, what might translate here. We'd look at why guys made it and why they didn't."

All this leads to intrigue. Does all this study yield a formula to what makes a successful Colorado Rockies player?

"We even tried to do that through the course of this offseason," DePodesta said. "It was really starting to try to create a shared vision for the organization about what we wanted our guys to look like -- both pitchers and position players. I think we've communicated that throughout the course of the spring with our scouts, our player development people, even with our Major League team.

"As we go into the Draft process, my guess is a lot of our selections will reflect that it's hard to find 21 players for 20 rounds that are going to fit that precisely, so that's not necessarily what we're trying to do. It won't be cookie cutter, but I think there will be elements of each of those players that absolutely fit our philosophies."

With pitching specifically?

"It's a sliding scale to some degree," DePodesta said. "We want guys who are hard to hit and we want them to throw strikes, so ideally you want them in that quadrant, if you were thinking about a sort of a four-square matrix."

So it's complicated, but the Rockies have to get it right.

Day 1 picks: 10, 37, 38, 76, 104

Bonus pool allotment: $15,557,600, including $6,393,100 allotted for the 10th overall pick

Last year’s top pick: Ethan Holliday, SS, 4th overall ... Singed for $9 million -- a record for a high school player -- and installed immediately as the Rockies' No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline. Holliday was starting to live up to the billing with nine home runs and 32 RBIs in his first 33 games at Single-A Fresno, but he sustained a stress fracture in his left foot in May and underwent season-ending surgery. His recovery period will stretch toward the end of the calendar year.

Breakout 2025 pick: Max Belyeu, OF, 74th overall pick (No. 12 prospect) ... During his collegiate career at the University of Texas, Belyeu grew into a run producer with an approach that's bent on creating damage. His first full pro season has brought more of the same, with a slugging percentage in the high .400s and a mid-.800s OPS at High-A Spokane. He is taking advantage of RBI opportunities and using speed and athletic ability in pushing for extra-base hits and in playing the outfield. He'll have to reduce the strikeout rate, but he has the hitter-ish tendencies to address that.

Keep an eye on Spokane third baseman Ethan Hedges (77th overall), a plus defender and doubles threat, and first baseman Tanner Thach (227th), whose RBI knack allowed him to hit his way out of Fresno.