Spin Doctor: Kimbrel slamming doors in a new way

April 13th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Jake Rill's Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BALTIMORE -- hasn’t been lighting up the radar gun over his first handful of outings as the Orioles’ closer. The 35-year-old right-hander also hasn’t needed to. He’s proven he can still get big league hitters out, even if his velocity isn’t what it was early in his 15-year MLB career.

“This is the first time I’ve seen him with my eyes since when he was with me when he was 23 years old,” said Baltimore bench coach Fredi González, who was Kimbrel’s manager in Atlanta from 2011-14. “His command is a lot better. His breaking ball is a lot better. And I think the velocity is going to continue ticking up a little bit.

“I don’t think we’re going to see the Kimbrel of 98 mph. What is he now, 35? 35 years old. So I don’t think we’re going to see that. But everything else has improved. And, of course, the experience now.”

González’s evaluation was in line with a recent self-assessment from Kimbrel.

In his O’s debut vs. the Royals on April 1, Kimbrel blew a save opportunity. It wasn’t a bad outing, though, as Kyle Isbel hit a one-out bloop single, then pinch-runner Dairon Blanco stole second and third before scoring on a Maikel Garcia sac fly. Kimbrel still had two strikeouts.

Since Isbel’s knock, Kimbrel has retired all 14 batters he’s faced. He had a pair of strong showings in Pittsburgh last weekend, which included earning his first Orioles save on April 5. Then, he had two more perfect outings in Boston, where he earned his 419th career save (the eighth most in AL/NL history) on Wednesday.

“1-2-3 feels good every time,” said Kimbrel, who has eight strikeouts in five innings this season.

Over his first five outings, Kimbrel’s average velocities on his four-seam fastball and his knuckle curve were 92.8 and 84.2 mph, respectively. Both would be career lows, with the four-seam velo down 3 mph from just last season:

But Kimbrel has counterpoints to share for anybody who may be concerned at this point.

One, it’s not unusual for Kimbrel’s velocity to be down early in the season. Last year with the Phillies, he had an average fastball velo of 94.9 mph in April -- then it was between 95.5 and 96.4 the rest of the way.

Same with the knuckle curve. Kimbrel had an average velo of 84.8 mph with the pitch in April 2023 -- then it was between 86.1-86.8 afterward.

“I think, as we go, it will climb,” Kimbrel said. “It usually does.”

But if it doesn’t, Kimbrel cited a different stat -- his spin rate. Pitches with a ton of spin can be tricky to hit even when they’re not coming in at high velocities. And the veteran is getting quite a bit of spin on both of his pitches so far.

Through five outings, Kimbrel’s four-seamer had an average spin rate of 2,340 revolutions per minute, while his knuckle curve was at 2,595 rpm. If both stay that high, the fastball spin rate would be his second best over the past six seasons, and the average spin on his knuckle curve would be the second best of his career (behind only 2,604 in 2023).

“I’m happy with how it’s playing,” Kimbrel said. “Right now, I’m just out there pitching, and I’m trying to miss bats still, no matter what the velocity is. I mean, I’m getting guys out with spin. Overall, the way the ball is coming out of my hand, I like it.”

More important to Kimbrel than velocity and even spin rates? The numbers of outs recorded and saves accumulated. So far, so good on both of those fronts to begin 2024.

“I’m just making pitches,” Kimbrel said. “That’s all I can worry about.”